Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction Presented by Susan Fison � � Anchorage HAND Commission � May 7, 2014 � B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D. Housing Anchorage seeks to find broad-based community solutions to improve the availability of housing options for Anchorage's workforce and to spur economic growth. � � Collaborators : • Alaska Housing Finance Corporation � • Anchorage Community Development Authority � • Cook Inlet Housing Authority � • Rasmuson Foundation � • United Way of Anchorage � • Anchorage Economic Development Corporation's Live. Work. Play. Initiative. � � �

Anchorage Population (in 1000s) 327 301 292 260 226 174 126 83 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2022* Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Seniors (65 & Older) 13.5% 7.5% 5.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2022* Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Households by Type 9% 23% Married w/Children Single-parent 26% Families - No Child One Person 11% Roommates 31% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Anchorage Renters � Housing 39% Owners � 61% Market 2012: 105,517 Households B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Rental Households by Age of Head Under 25 86% 25-34 58% 35-44 41% 45-54 29% 55-64 22% 65-74 18% 75 & Up 23% 39% All Ages Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Type of Occupied Housing Unit Single-Family 2-4 5-19 20 or + Units Mobile Homes 5% 3% 2% 4% 15% 5% 27% 23% 85% 31% Owner Housing Rental Housing Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Age of Housing Unit 9% 13% 2000-2012 1980-99 12% 1970-79 1960-69 Before 1960 37% 30% Occupied & Vacant: 113,070 Units Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Average Apt. Vacancy Rate 10% 8.0% 8% 6% Healthy Vacancy Rate 5% 4.7% 4.5% 4% 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Average Adjusted Apt Rents $ 1,500 $ 1,250 $ 1,000 $ 750 3-Bedroom $ 500 2-Bedroom 1-Bedroom $ 250 Efficiency $ 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Anchorage Apt Rents - 2013 Efficiency $849 1-Bedroom $1,090 $1,287 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom $1,457 Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Hourly Wage Needed - 2013 Efficiency $17.69 1-Bedroom $20.96 2-Bedroom $24.75 3-Bedroom $28.02 Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. *If spending 30% of gross income on housing. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Monthly Income to Afford Rent $2,028 Retail Sales (6,400) $2,924 Office Clerks (4,630) $7,706 Managers (3,880) $6,861 Nurses-R.N. (3,380) $2,241 Janitors (3,070) Wages needed to afford � $2,434 Laborers (2,890) 1-bedroom ($3,382) � $1,595 Fast Food (2,590) 2-bedroom ($3,843) $3,045 Secretaries (2,440) $3,409 Bookeepers (2,340) $4,228 Truck Drivers (1,750) $5,541 Elem. Teachers (1,630) $4,004 Exec. Secret. (1,610) $5,311 Carpenters (1,470) $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: numbers in parentheses = number employed in occupation; dollars show hourly wage. Wages needed assumes that 30% of income will be spent on housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

How Many Minimum Wage Workers to Afford a One-Bedroom Apartment? 2000 2.1 Workers 2005 2.0 Workers 2010 2.4 Workers 2.8 Workers 2013 0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Alaska Dept of Labor rental survey for AHFC. 15 B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Anchorage Gross Rent as % of Household Income 19% Under 30% 9% 30-39.9% 54% 40-49.9% 50% or + 19% Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Average Home Sale Price � (in 1000s) $349 $347 $350 $337 $329 $327 $326 $322 $321 $315 $292 $300 $260 $250 $236 $223 $207 $200 $188 $150 $100 $50 $0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014* Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Average Condo Sales Price � (in 1000s) $203 $199 $198 $196 $195 $191 $191 $200 $188 $150 $100 $50 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Home & Condo Prices � Anchorage MLS - 2013 Income Needed � Condos $203,215 $60,000 Income Needed � $346,977 Homes $85,000 Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and local banks. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Housing Price & CPI Change � 2007-2013 One-Bed Apartment 28% Two-Bed Apartment 23% Anchorage CPI 16% 8% Condo Single Family Home 6% Source: Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Homes for Sale April 2014 Under $180,000 18 $180-199,999 20 $200-224,999 12 $225-249,999 42 $250-274,999 26 $275-299,999 30 $300-349,999 60 $350-399,999 68 $400-499,999 110 $500-749,999 120 $750-999,999 34 $1 Million + 22 Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

MLS Home Listings by Month 2006-2014 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Residential Construction How much housing does Anchorage need? March 2012 Anchorage Housing Market Analysis: Anchorage Bowl will need 18,200 more units by 2030. � � B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

New Housing - Anchorage Bowl 1,000 Projected Need: 909 Units Annually 900 800 Multi Family Units 700 Duplex Units Single Family 600 500 400 72 300 98 121 98 142 183 62 80 76 74 200 48 38 100 178 177 173 151 149 135 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

New Housing Units � Actual vs Need - 2013 1000 Multi-Family 750 418 Duplex Single-Family 500 173 72 80 250 318 177 0 Actual Need Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Conversions to New Housing Units � Anchorage Bowl - 2008-2013 10% Karluk Manor Inlet Tower 47% Henry House 38% Howard Johnson 5% Total New Units: 476 Source: Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC). B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

New Housing Units & Conversions � Anchorage Bowl 2008-2013 18% Private Sector Conversions 19% Non-Profits/Tax Cr. 64% Total Units: 2,531 Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports and Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Private Sector vs Non-Profits � New Housing Units 2008-2013 1,800 1,609 Multi-Family 375 1,350 Duplex 308 Single-Family 900 446 926 450 339 70 37 0 Private Non-Profit/Tax Cr. Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Mat-Su Population (1000s) 125 118 96 100 94 92 89 86 84 81 78 75 71 75 68 65 62 59 50 25 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2022* Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Alaska Population 2013 & � New Homes 2002-2012, by Region Anchorage Fairbanks Mat-Su Other AK 15% 23% 33% 41% 15% 13% 47% 14% Population 2013 New Homes 2002-12 Source: Alaska Department of Labor. B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.

Economic Comparisons Economic Bust Late Today 1980s 248,263 in 1985 down Record High Population Population to 218,979 in 1988 301,134 in 2013 Less than 200 per year About 350 per year New Housing Units 9-14% 3.5-4.5% 30-yr mortgage rates Peaked at 26% 2-3% Rental Vacancy Rate Residential 6,621 in 1988 1,314 in 2012 Foreclosures Under $11/Barrel $100+/Barrel Oil Prices 1,500-2,500 450-1,000 Homes for Sale B RE AKING GRIDLOC K . B RE AKING GROU N D.