An aviation policy for London Shamal Ratnayaka Aviation Strategy Lead TfL Presentation to · 16 February 2018
The central role of aviation for London Stansted Luton 24.3m 14.6m Southend 0.9m City 4.5m Heathrow 75.7m Gatwick Total 43.1m 163.2m 2
New aviation policy for London • Obj ective: a coherent overarching framework within which to set out a considered aviation policy... London Plan Mayor’s Economic Mayor’s Transport London Development Strategy Environment Strategy Strategy for London 3
Striking the economic/environmental balance • Aviation plays a key role in supporting London as a world city • Environmental impacts are a key concern – especially noise, AQ “The Mayor supports the case for additional aviation capacity in the south east of England providing it would meet London’s passenger and freight needs.” “The environmental impacts of aviation must be fully acknowledged and the aviation industry should fully meet its external and environmental costs particularly in respect of noise, air quality and climate change.” 4
Making best use of existing airport capacity Stansted Luton Southend City Heathrow Gatwick ...underpinned by rail 5
Elizabeth line (Crossrail) Shenfield Romford Ilford STN SEN Stratford LTN HS2 Reading Custom F TCR Hayes & P Old Oak House Harlington LS W Ealing Common BS LCY Slough Southall Abbey Wood Broadway Canary LGW Wharf Woolwich Heathrow 6
Airport surface access “straightforward, seamless and integrated connectivity” “increase the proportion of journeys by sustainable means” “expansion proposals should demonstrate how public transport and other surface access networks would accommodate resulting increases in demand alongside forecast background growth” 7
The role of airports in supporting spatial growth... Stansted 65,000 new jobs Lea Valley 65,000 new jobs 26,000 new homes 52,100 new homes Up to 10 trains per hour Tottenham Hale Journey time: 10 minutes Old Oak Common Stratford Heathrow Up to 20 trains per hour Journey time: 15 minutes Croydon “...particularly within Opportunity Areas well Gatwick 20,000 new jobs connected to the airports 10,000 new homes by public transport” 8
Other policy areas • Inclusive access • Changes to airspace and airport operations • General and business aviation • Heliports “ According t o t his, we should see a plane land any moment now...” 9
Heathrow expansion: surface access 10
Heathrow expansion: surface access • 170,000 additional daily passenger and staff trips... • ...according to HAL, what new surface access infrastructure is required to meet that demand: nothing! “ If any of the individual measures are not delivered, then other measures can be scaled up to achieve the required targets.” [DCO-1] Highway Public Transport Scenario PT share Extra vehicles person trips person trips 2015 Base 143,700 90,600 39% - 2030 No extra traffic 125,200 284,000 69% - 2030 NPS 181,300 228,000 56% 57,200 2030 No extra traffic [-10% ] 125,200 243,200 66% - 2030 NPS [-10% ] 167,100 201,300 55% 42,800 11
Heathrow expansion: Air quality “ Given the inherent uncertainties in air quality modelling, there remains, however, a risk that the option could delay compliance with limit values... ...The risk of impact on compliance is high up to 2029 since the option potentially impacts on compliance in central London and exists whether or not the Government’s 2017 Plan actions are fully implemented.” [Revised NPS ] 12
Heathrow expansion: Noise • Noise assessment remains based on HAL modelling scenarios: Minimise total, Minimise new, Respite • These are the result of an iterative optimisation process The problem... • HAL modelling compared against non-optimised future scenario • NPS mitigation criteria compares against 2013 baseline • S cenarios in part circumvent average noise metrics (LAeq, Lden) • NATS found some of these flightpaths to be unfeasible • NPS states indicative flightpaths to be used for decision-making... ...yet they might have no relation to flightpaths implemented – actual flightpaths options only to be published in 2021 after DCO decision 13
Heathrow expansion: Economy & Connectivity According to the Revised NPS ... • A new runway at Gatwick delivers greater economic benefit to passengers and the wider economy than a new runway at Heathrow – Instead NPS cites questionable ‘ strategic’ benefits in Heathrow’s favour... • A third runway at Heathrow opens in 2026 – and is full in 2028 • Domestic connectivity falls – from eight routes today... “ With expansion a total of five domestic routes from Heathrow are protected until 2050, two more than if expansion does not occur.” 14
Summary: an aviation policy for London • Recognises the economic benefits of London airports system • But the severe environmental impacts must be addressed • Improved surface access is essential to make best use of capacity • Key role for airports in supporting growth in Opportunity Areas • What ever your view of Heathrow expansion , t he current proposals, as framed by t he NPS and DCO, are simply not fit for purpose 15
Questions? www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/ Consultation closes: Friday 2 March 2018, 5pm 16
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