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An Advisory Services Panel for Norfolk, VA Norfolk, VA December 14-19, 2014 About the Urban Land Institute Norfolk, VA December 14-19, 2014 The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land

  1. An Advisory Services Panel for Norfolk, VA Norfolk, VA December 14-19, 2014

  2. About the Urban Land Institute Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 • The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. • ULI is a membership organization with nearly 33,000 members, worldwide representing the spectrum of real estate development, land use planning and financial disciplines, working in private enterprise and public service. • What the Urban Land Institute does: – Conducts Research – Provides a forum for sharing of best practices – Writes, edits and publishes books and magazines – Organizes and conducts meetings – Directs outreach programs – Conducts Advisory Services Panels 2

  3. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Thanks to the following sponsors: – Steering Committee: Sponsor: • Christine Morris City of Norfolk • Ron Williams • George Homewood • Richard Broad • Lenny Newcomb • Peter Chapman • Ray Gindroz • Thom White • Katerina Oskarsson And the many members of the community who contributed their time, knowledge, and experience! 3

  4. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 The Advisory Services Program • Since 1947 • 15 - 20 panels a year on a variety of land use subjects • Provides independent, objective candid advice on important land use and real estate issues • Process • Review background materials • Receive a sponsor presentation & tour • Conduct stakeholder interviews • Consider data, frame issues and write recommendations • Make presentation • Produce a final report 4

  5. The Panel Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 • John McIlwain, Senior Advisor, Jonathan Rose Companies • John Macomber, Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA • Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel Inc., New York, NY • Paul Moyer, VHB, Vienna, VA • Dave Stebbins, Buffalo Urban Development Corp., Buffalo, NY • Charles Schilke, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Washington, DC • Juvarya Veltkamp, Vancouver Economic Commission, Vancouver, BC 5

  6. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Presentation Outline I. Intro and Background II. Market Potential III. Planning & Design IV.Economic and Social Resilience V. Conclusion 6

  7. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Panel Overarching Assignment A decade has passed since ULI last looked at the Fort Norfolk neighborhood, then known as Atlantic City. Much has changed since that time – the Tide rail line, the real estate market crash, and an increasing focus on the effect of sea level rise on Hampton Roads. This panel will look at ways to use development opportunities and challenges in the Fort Norfolk neighborhood to improve flood protection for vulnerable locations in the community, but also to build economic opportunity – to use the site as an avenue to broad community strength and resilience. 7

  8. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Panel Questions • What is the market potential for the Fort Norfolk neighborhood? • How will coastal flooding impact land and development value in the area and how can impacts be appropriately mitigated and transferred throughout the community? • What are appropriate techniques for building resilience to flooding in Fort Norfolk? • How can social equity be addressed when impacts due to climate change impact affect areas in uneven ways? 8

  9. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 The Study Area 9

  10. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Three Important Changes Since Previous Studies • The Tide Transit • The 2008 Recession • The Rising Waters 10

  11. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Potential: Context and Opportunity 11

  12. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Potential: Context and Opportunity Considerations • Time scale – Short, Medium, Long • Hampton Roads Region • City of Norfolk • Fort Norfolk 12

  13. Hampton Roads Region: Slower Economic Growth Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Source: US Cluster Mapping Project 13

  14. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Hampton Roads Region: Flooding and Sea Level Rise 14

  15. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Hampton Roads Region: Increasing Repetitive Flood Loss 15

  16. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 City of Norfolk: Economy and Jobs Source: City of Norfolk FY 2012 Resource Guide 16

  17. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 City of Norfolk: Lower Tax Revenues, Lower CIP budget Source: City of Norfolk FY 2012 Resource Guide 17

  18. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 City of Norfolk: Individual impact, Regional effects Insurance Rates Mortgage Amounts Housing Values 18

  19. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Fort Norfolk: Water Challenges Developers and landowners will need to address severe impairment from increasing flood risk FEMA proposed flood map 19

  20. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Fort Norfolk: Value in the Future The Fort Norfolk area needs to rely on collaborative and bold development to create value in the future. Value today is constrained by: • Lack of demand in the region • Significant and uncertain flood risk Value in the future could be enhanced by creating: • Employment demand: new jobs • Housing demand: new people • Housing: taking pressure off the most flood-exposed areas • Housing demand mixed-use, mixed-income urban coastal lifestyle • Employers interested in a mixed-use urban coastal environment • Designs that are flood resistant in the long run 20

  21. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Fort Norfolk Residential Real Estate In Context • Existing condominium – 40 Rader St. (Pier Condo) • New and existing residential development - 139 Riverview Ave. (Riverview Lofts) • New and existing retirement community – 1 Colley Ave. (Harbor’s Edge) 21

  22. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Fort Norfolk Prices Rising Before Financial Crisis 22

  23. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Fort Norfolk Prices Continue to Fall After Financial Crisis 23

  24. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Fort Norfolk Prices Down 31.7% 24

  25. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Norfolk and Hampton Roads 5- Year Trend: In Sync, Flat Source: Long & Foster 25

  26. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Market Overview Lagging Behind U.S. and Regional Housing Trends • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Change from Market Peak – U.S. -15.9% – Charlotte, NC -5.1% – Washington, DC -16.5% – Fort Norfolk, VA -31.9% 26

  27. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning and Design 27

  28. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design: Site Context • Near a number of stable and emerging neighborhoods • Easy access to downtown via Tide • Waterfront along 3 sides • Excellent views to surrounding areas Potential Tide Extension to Chelsea Chelsea Medical Center Future Ghent Tide Route Ft Options Norfolk Freemason St Paul’s Quadrant Downtown Existing Tide Route 28

  29. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Current Zoning • Densest development nearer the waterfront • Institutional near transit station • No open space provided along the waterfront 29

  30. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Proposed FIRM Map X Zone AE Zone (100-year floodplain) Limit of Wave Action VE Zone 30

  31. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Physical Opportunities and Constraints Medical Center Connections Connections to to Freemason Ghent and Colley and Avenue Downtown Tide Station Elizabeth River Trail Harbor Edge 5-minute walk from Tide Station View Corridors VE Flood Zone 31

  32. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Key Takeaways • Market Requires Long- Term Time Horizon • Phased Development Needed • Make Fort Norfolk a Resilience Demonstration Project 32

  33. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Setting the Stage • Focus initial redevelopment at Tide station • Activate the site • Conduct feasibility study to validate development thesis 33

  34. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design • Transit-Oriented, Mixed-Use Development – Medical Center – Tide Light Rail – Resilience Itself 34

  35. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Healthcare/Senior Living Uses • Medical Center is key economic asset • Long-term space need in Fort Norfolk • Employee housing need in Fort Norfolk • Success of Harbor’s Edge shows appeal to seniors 35

  36. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Fort Norfolk as Historic Asset • Historical Asset of National Significance • Embrace the asset • Enhanced use leasing • Engage state and national partners 36

  37. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Leadership Challenges • Fort Norfolk - transitioning from industrial to mixed use • Thus lacks established community institutions • Fragmented Land ownership • Without community institutions, no consensus • Community institutions create resilience 37

  38. Norfolk, VA · December 14-19, 2014 Planning & Design Building Leadership – Community Development Authority (CDA) – Business Improvement District (BID) – Civic League 38

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