Alaskas Forest I ndustry: Timber Harvest and Recent Trends Erik - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alaska’s Forest I ndustry: Timber Harvest and Recent Trends Erik Berg Todd Morgan Charles Keegan Bureau of Business & Economic Research University of Montana PNW-FI A 2013 Client Meeting May 15, 2013

What is Timber Products Output (TPO)? Part of FIA that provides information on wood use Accomplished with: • Mill surveys • Logging utilization studies • Firewood and other studies • Plot data

Why is TPO important? Timber er p products cts a and l logging ng r residue ues a are e “com omponent onents o of chang ange.” Accur curate a te accounti counting ng o of t total al r removal als a and w wood od utiliza lizatio ion r relie lies o on TPO data f from m mill a l and f field ld stud tudies. TPO infor ormati tion i on is not d duplicated ted w withi thin F n FIA. A. • Removal als f for t timber er p products ucts a are o e only p parti tial ally captur tured ed b by plot d ot data. a. • Inf nfo on on ti timber p proc ocessors, l log ogging r res esidue, and and mill r residue a ue are n e not c t captur tured ed a at all b by plot d ot data. a.

TPO in the West BBER = Bureau of Business & Economic Research • Complete census of timber processors • Logging utilization studies • Data, analysis, & publications Timber Harvest and Industry Reports Alaska 2005, 2011 California, Idaho 2000, 2006, 2011 Nevada, Wyoming 2005, 2010 Montana 2004, 2009 Oregon 2003, 2008 Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah 2002, 2007, 2012

Forest I ndustry Analysis • Western States • Describe industry structure, capacity, condition, and changes • Track wood fiber from forest to marketplace • Associate key economic indicators

Background for the 2011 Alaska census: the “Great Recession” 30 3.0 25 2.5 Home starts (millions) 20 2.0 Billion board feet 15 1.5 10 1.0 Western states harvest (Scribner log scale) Western states lumber production (Lumber 5 0.5 Tally) U.S. New privately owned housing units started (right axis) - 0.0 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 ( from Keegan et al. 2012 )

2011 Alaska Forest I ndustry Census (not a sample!) • Primary Production, not secondary! • Mill type, capacity, equipment, employment Timber harvest volume, use, species, county, & • ownership • Mill residue & wood fiber use • Product volume, sales, & geographic distribution

Alaska’s timber harvest by ownership 1,200 Total National forests 1,000 State and other Timber Harvested (MMBF) public 800 Tribal and private 600 400 200 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Calendar Year ( Data from Zhou and Warren 2012 )

Alaska active timber processing mills

Far North Interior Number of active timber processing South-central & mills by resource area Western Southeast 35 Number of Facilities 30 25 20 15 10 2005 5 2011 0 Southeast South-central Interior & Western Resource Area - 37 mills were inactive in 2011. - 12 active mills closed between 2005 and 2011. - 17 active mills were mothballed (inactive).

Timber volume received by primary mills by resource area 40 35 30 MMBF 25 20 15 2005 10 2011 5 0 Southeast South-central Interior & Western Resource Area

Timber volume received by primary Alaskan facilities, by ownership origin (log export facilities not included) 25 20 15 MMBF 10 2005 2011 5 0 Private & National tribal State & Forest other public Ownership Class

50 40 MMBF 30 20 Alaskan 2011 lumber 2005 & sawn products 10 2011 production by 0 resource area Southeast South-central Interior & Western Resource Area 400 Thousand Lineal Feet 300 200 Alaskan 2011 house 2005 100 2011 log production by 0 resource area Southeast South-central Interior & Western Resource Area

Wood for energy: 2011 mill residues (in BDUs) used for energy by resource area - In 2011 27% of mill coarse residues were used for fuel, compared to 11% in 2005. - In 2011 firewood sales made up 15% of all AK wood product sales.

Sawmill production by capacity size class 2005 2011 Total 2005 production = 54.8 Total 2011 production = MMBF lumber tally 20.9 MMBF lumber tally Note: In 2005 Alaskan mills operated at 21.4 % of total capacity, compared to 15 % in 2011.

Destinations of Alaska's primary wood products & residue: % sales value (2011 $) 2005 2011 Other Other Canada States Canada Countries 2.3% 5.5% Other 0.9% 0.3% States 3.0% West Coast Alaska 17.4% 36.5% Alaska West 74.8% Coast 59.4%

2002-2011 Alaska log exports 350 600 300 500 250 400 Dollars per MBF MMBF Scribner 200 300 Volume 150 Average Value 200 100 100 50 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year (Source: S. Alexander 2012)

Primary employment - Alaska's forest products industry 1969-2011 (U.S. Department of Commerce 2012; S. Alexander 2012; BBER estimated data) Forestry, logging, and wood products 5,000 4,500 Pulp 4,000 Total 3,500 Number of Workers 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Note: Total Alaska active mill FTE employment from 2011 census = 150.

I n Summary: 2005 vs. 2011 • Total number of active facilities changed little, but many were mothballed or closed completely. • Timber volume received and lumber and houselog production declined + / - 50% . Wood for fuel: Large increases in I nterior demand and • sales. • Mill capacity utilization: Down to 15% in 2011! Potential for substantial increases in production. Log Exports: Large increases- huge ramp-up in Asian • demand, particularly for lower quality logs.

Special thanks: Micah Scudder, Chelsea McIver, Colin Sorensen- BBER Susan Alexander, USDA FS PNW Research Station Dan Parrent, USDA FS State and Private Forestry Allen Brackley, USDA FS PNW Research Station Glenn Christensen, USDA FS PNW FIA Juneau Economic Development Council Alaska Dept. of Nat. Resources Division of Forestry- many indiv I nternet: www.BBER.umt.edu Email: Erik.Berg@business.umt.edu Phone: (406) 243-4045