Agora Verkehrswende : Transforming Transportation to secure tomorrow‘s mobility. 12 Insights into the Verkehrswende Christian Hochfeld Executive Director, Agora Verkehrswende Draft Presentation, Canada November, 2017
Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation Who we are. → Initiative by Stiftung Mercator and European Climate Foundation → Independent Think Tank and high-level Council of Agora → Project Duration: 2016 – 2018 → Mission: Scenarios, Discourse and Strategies for the Decarbonisation of Transport until 2050 → Focus: starting with national land-based transport in Germany in an European context Picture: Greenpeace 2
The Council of Agora Verkehrswende The Council is chaired by Achim Steiner, former Under Secretary General of UN and former Executive Director of UNEP. Policy: → EU-COM; 5 national ministries; main parlimentary groups; 2 federal states; 2 city mayors; 2 Governmental agencies Economy: → BMW; DB; DP-DHL; innogy; Robert Bosch; Siemens; VW; VDV Civil Society & Science: → German Automobile Association; Consumer Association; 3 environmental NGOs; Labor Union; 3 academics The full list of the council members under: www.agora-verkehrswende.de Picture: Achim Steiner at the Launch of Agora Verkehrswende 3
Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation How we work. Stakeholder Team of Agora Verkehrswende Council of the Agora Director Impulse Impulse Mobility Energy Transition Central Services Revolution in Transport Internal exchange with standing Regular exchange on projects Studies, members of the Council of with temporary task forces Events etc. Agora Verkehrswende Source: Agora Verkehrswende 4
Publication: „12 Insights on Transforming Transportation in Germany “ Download link: www.agora-verkehrswende.de/12-thesen/ Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation | ECF Board, 6 June 2017 5
Transforming the transport sector is crucial for the success of the clean energy transition.
In the past 25 years the Transport Sector in Germany could not contribute to CO 2 Emission Reductions. Relative Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different Sectors since 1990 7
Federal Climate Protection Plan 2050: The Verkehrswende is an official goal of the Government. For the first time ever the German transport sector has an own ambitious emission reduction target. National Sectoral Climate Protection Goals for 2030 Emission reduction since 1990 and plan for the next 14 years (in mio. tons of CO 2 ) Transport Total Energy Industry Building Agriculture Source: Agora Verkehrswende 8
The ‚ Verkehrswende 2050‘ will be enabled by the Mobility Revolution and the Energy Transition in Transport. The Verkehrswende enables the German transport sector to be carbon neutral by 2050. The Energy Transition in Transport covers The Mobility Revolution reduces the energy consumption of the German transport sector the remaining energy demand of the German transport sector with renewable based on Avoid, Shift and Improve. energy. Source: Agora Verkehrswende. 9
In cities, the mobility transition has already begun.
Agora Network Urban Verkehrswende 11 Source: Agora Verkehrswende
The Mobility Transition has already started in cities around the world … • The interlinked public transport is the backbone of urban transport. • Private transport becomes more public, public transport becomes more private. • Fewer cars leave more space for other land use. • Walking and cycling comes with high benefits for the city at lowest costs. • Sustainable urban transport policy receives more political support. Picture: iStock 12
The Mobility Alliance Public Transport • Suburban train • Underground • Tram • Bus • Taxi Non-motorised Transport • Bicycle • Pedestrians Collaborative Mobility • Carsharing • Ridesharing • Bikesharing Source: Agora Verkehrswende 13
Shared Mobility and Penetration of New Technologiesgoes hand in hand! Autonomous vehicles need collaborative mobility. Source: OECD-ITF 2016. 14
Pedestrians and cyclists are a benefit for cities. The Economist : In China, Bikes are back! Pictures: The Economist (l.); Christian Hochfeld (r.) 15
Driverless vehicles are ideal for shared use.
Trends and Potentials of Digitalisation in Transport Optional Synergies between Automatisation, Collaborative Mobility and Connectivity Source: Agora Verkehrswende 17
Even a Small Number of Driverless Cars Can Increase Traffic. Usage forms and possible effects of vehicle automatisation Source: Agora Verkehrswende 18
Electrification is key to an energy transition in transport.
Options for the ‚ post fossil ‘ future of transport Renewable energy from sun and wind replaces fossil fuels. INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE Liquid or Liquid or Gaseous gaseous Power Generated Bio Fuels Fuels (PtX) Energy Transition in Transport Fuel Cell Vehicles Electromobility with renewably (incl. PHEV, REEX and generated Hydrogen Trolley Trucks) ALTERNATIVE PROPULSION Source: Figure by INFRAS 20
Battery Electric Vehicles are the Benchmark concerning energy efficiency and costs. From well to wheel: Transparent LCA of BEV Source: UBA 2016, Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte Analyse Umweltbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen 21
Core options for the Energy Transition in Transportation (until 2050) Core options for the Energy Transition in Transport by mode (until 2050) ? LDV HDV Bus Preferential <<<<<<< <<<<<<< <<<<<<< BEV as benchmark BEV as benchmark technology open Aviation Maritime Rail Power-to-Liquid as PtX Complete <<<<<<< <<<<<<< <<<<<<< alternative to indispensable electrification Biokerosene Source: INFRAS/Quantis 2015. 22
The direct use of Electricity in LDV is the option with the lowest cost of decarbonisation for the national economy. Accumulated Difference Costs for Technology Options 2050 compared to BAU. 800 Differenzkosten in Mrd . € 600 400 200 0 Energiebereitstellung Tankstellen & Ladeinfrastruktur Fahrzeuganschaffung Gesamtsystem Fl+ E+ CH4+ H2+ Source: Öko-Institut, INFRAS, DVGW, im Auftrag UBA 23
Carbon-neutral fuels can supplement electricity from solar and wind.
Process steps for the production of hydrogen, PtG-methane and PtL- fuels from renewable energies Methanation Electricity from renewable energies RE-methane Electrolysis Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 RE-petrol RE-diesel Water RE-kerosene Fischer-Tropsch process Source: Agora Verkehrswende Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation | ECF Board, 6 June 2017 25
Synthetic Fuels could serve as a supplement to electricity from sun and wind – but no alternative. GHG-emissiones related to energy demand in 2020 (Well-to-Wheel) Source: JRC, EUCAR, CONCAWE (2014b). 26
Electricity demand from renewable energies for different propulsion and fuel combinations (per 100 km/passenger car) Battery electric vehicle + direct Fuel cell electric vehicle + Combustion engine Combustion engine use of electricity hydrogen vehicle + vehicle + “Power -to- Gas” “Power -to- Liquid” Source: own calculation and illustration, DLR, Ifeu, LBST, DFZ (2015), p. 15 27
Future Battery Electric Vehicles will be cheaper than ICE Vehicles fueled by PtX. Comparison of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of BEV and ICE (with imported PtX) in 2030 (same CO 2 - Emissions). energy costs vehicle costs other costs fixed costs Source: Agora Verkehrswende. 28
The freight sector needs an improved rail system and carbon-neutral roads.
The decarbonisation of freight transport requires more cooperation between rail and (decarbonised) trucks! Maximum potential in Germany to shift freight transport from road to rail. Reference scenario Billion ton kilometres Rail Road River Reference scenario Source: IFEU/INFRAS/LBST 2016. 30
Power supply and transport benefit from sector coupling.
‚ Potential Difference ‘: Overview AC & DC Charging Points in Europe 32 Source : BMW Navigation Systems in Europe
Rethinking the development and Financing of transport infrastructure.
The transport transformation will be Driven by its benefits to society.
Business-As-Usual-Scenario: ‚Projektionsbericht‘ German Government 2017 ( with measures ) Transport demand according to GHG-emissions from transport in Germany ‚Verkehrsverflechtungsprognose‘ 2030: 180 • +10% in passenger transport 2010-2030 160 140 • +38% in freight transport 2010-2030 120 Mt CO2e 100 CO 2 -Emissions: Target KSP 80 • -9% für total transport in DE 1990-2030 60 • Gap to target of German „Climate Action 40 Plan 2050“ for year 2030 ~ 50 Mio. t 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Anmerkung: Werte gelten für das sogenannte Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MMS) Source: Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung 2017 35
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