Affordable Preliminary HOUSING Data Study Report September 26, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Affordable Preliminary HOUSING Data Study Report September 26, 2013

Purpose Compiles existing information to establish the context for affordable housing. Identify information gaps.

212,900 People in 2013 5 9.6% from 2000-2010 5 15.1% from 2000-2010 Metro Washington Region POPULATION

Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1: P12 Arlington looks very different from the region Arlington County Metropolitan Washington Region 85 and over 85 and over 80 to 84 80 to 84 75 to 79 75 to 79 70 to 74 70 to 74 65 to 69 65 to 69 60 to 64 60 to 64 55 to 59 55 to 59 50 to 54 50 to 54 Male 45 to 49 45 to 49 Female 40 to 44 40 to 44 35 to 39 35 to 39 30 to 34 30 to 34 25 to 29 25 to 29 20 to 24 20 to 24 POPULATION 15 to 19 15 to 19 10 to 14 10 to 14 5 to 9 5 to 9 Under 5 Under 5 10% 5% 5% 10% 10% 5% 5% 10% Population Distribution by Age and Sex Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1: P12

A closer look at age distribution and change Percent change in population from 2000-2010 by age range 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% POPULATION -20% -30% -40% Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 SF1

A closer look at age distribution and change Percent change in population from 2000-2010 by age cohort 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% POPULATION -100% Age cohort in 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 SF1

Comparison of Change in Population by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Arlington and DC Metro Region 2000-2010 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% POPULATION -20.0% Hispanic or Latino White Black/African Asian/Pacific Islander Other/Multi-Racial American Arlington DC Region

Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin by Jurisdiction 2010 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% POPULATION Hispanic or Latino White Black/African Asian/Pacific Other/Multi-Racial American Islander District of Columbia, District of Columbia Montgomery County, Maryland Prince George's County, Maryland Arlington County, Virginia Fairfax County, Virginia Alexandria city, Virginia

Household Income by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin 2011 Estimates 16,000 14,000 12,000 Households 10,000 8,000 6,000 HOUSEHOLDS 4,000 2,000 White (Non-hispanic) 0 Asian Less than $30,000 $60,000 $30,000 to $100,000 to $150,000 $59,999 to $200,000 $99,999 to $149,000 or more $199,999 Source: US Census American Community Survey 2011 5-year Estimates

Employment, Population and Households Forecast through 2040 40.0% 35.0% Cumulative Change over 2010 POPULATION - FORECAST 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Employment Population Households

Cumulative Change in Average Rent Compared to Change in Average Salaries 2003-2013 60% 60% 60% $1,999 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% HOUSING MARKET 30% 30% 30% $1,768 $2,408/month $6,740/month 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% $2,026/month $1,311 0% 0% 0% 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Average Salary Retail trade Average Salary Average Apartment Rent Average Apartment Rent Hospitality and Food Services Average Apartment Rent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Arlington County Rent and Vacancy Surveys

Inventory of Market Affordable and Committed Affordable Units 2000-2012 20,000 18,000 16,000 MARKs from 60% to 80% AMI 14,000 -Net Gain of 3,143 Units 12,000 HOUSING MARKET 10,000 8,000 6,000 MARKs up to 60% AMI 4,000 Committed Affordable Units -Net Loss of 11,547 2,000 -Net Gain of 2665 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Arlington County Housing Division, Rent and Vacancy Surveys

So Where have the MARKs Gone? 1,218 1,218 1,218 1,218 1,218 1 , 218 Condo Conversion Condo Conversion Condo Conversion Condo Conversion Condo Conversion Condo Conversion 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 1,367 1,367 1,367 1,367 1,367 Net Redevelopment Net Redevelopment Net Redevelopment Net Redevelopment Net Redevelopment 5,014 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% Rent Increase 581 581 581 581 HOUSING MARKET 43.4% Redevelopment CAFs Redevelopment CAFs Redevelopment CAFs Redevelopment CAFs 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1,948 1,948 1,948 Preserved as CAFs 16.9% Preserved as CAFs 16.9% Preserved as CAFs From 2000 to 2012 16.9% -11,547 Units 1,419 1,419 Renovation Renovation 12.3% 12.3% Source: Arlington County Housing Division, Rent and Vacancy Surveys

Homeownership Rate -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Hartford, CT New York, NY Boston, MA Providence, RI CharlottesVAlle, VA Buffalo, NY District of Columbia Richmond, VA HOUSING MARKET Milwaukee, WI 46.60% Arlington County,VA Atlanta, GA Wilmington, DE Seattle, WA San Diego, CA Baltimore,MD Minneapolis, MN Denver, CO Portland, OR San Jose, CA

Snapshot of Housing Market MIPAP Qualifying (Under $362,790) June 10, 2013 Bedrooms Property Type Inventory 0 Condo/Coop 9 Condo/Coop 57 1 Single Family Residential 1 HOUSING MARKET Townhouse 2 Condo/Coop 31 2 Single Family Residential 1 Townhouse 3 3 Townhouse 1 Total 105 Of 448 listed properties Source: Redfin

Goal 6: Serious Housing Need Arlington Households Receiving Rental Assistance 4,000 3,500 3,000 1,383 625 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Housing Choice Vouchers Section 202 & Section 8* Housing Grants Other * not administered or monitored by Arlington County

Results from 2013 Point-in-Time Count • 479 persons counted January 30, 2013 • 6.2% one-year increase 2012-2013 • 6.3% decrease over five years 2009-2013 • 30% unsheltered • Homeless ratio of 22 persons per 10,000 HOMELESSNESS Also of note: • Time in shelters has decreased 28% • Average shelter stay 3.9 months

Washington, DC Area Average Annual Expenditures 2010-2011 All Other $13,317 Housing 18% AFFORDABLE LIVING $25,590 Healthcare 35% $4,306 6% Personal Insurance & Pensions $10,004 14% Transportation Food $10,889 $8,342 15% 12% Source: U.S. BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Diversity PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Importance of supporting affordable access to housing for lower income households to maintain cultural and racial diversity, as well as economic diversity. • Need for at least 21,000 additional housing units by 2040. Affordability of new housing will impact the future demographic make-up of Arlington.

Affordable Homeownership PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Opportunities limited to 1 and 2-bedroom condominiums and townhomes. • ¼ of “for - sale” housing is within the price limit of the County’s Moderate Income Purchase Assistance Program. • Condominium and HOA fees further constrain affordability.

Affordability Gap PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Rents have increased, and lower wage incomes have stagnated creating a wider gap in affordability. • AMI growth outpaces lower wage growth. • Affordability gap widening for CAF units as well.

Interrelatedness PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Majority of households receiving Housing Grants and Housing Choice Vouchers live in CAF units. • One third of CAF units are occupied by persons receiving Housing Grants or Housing Choice Vouchers.

What we don’t know PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Detailed information on household income by family size. • Estimates for households with persons with disabilities. • Housing preferences.