Presentation to AUHF AGM, Abuja, Nigeria Affordable Housing Case Study 15 th September 2016 By Simon Gusah MPIA, ANIA Visiting Researcher CSIS ABU Zaria Ahmadu Bello University Centre for Spatial Information Sciences CSIS DEVE EVELOPM PMENT NT B BANK NK
Presentation Content FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy CONTENTS 1. Background & Client Brief 2. Nigeria: Context & Problem-Opportunities 3. Methodological Approach 4. Katsina City: Study Area 5. Case Study: Kwado District Housing 6. Case Analysis: Proposed Innovations 7. Prototype Resilient Affordable Housing 8. Lessons Learned & Next Steps DEVELOPMENT BANK F INANCING FOR R ESILIENT & G REEN U RBAN G LOBAL S OLUTIONS
Background & Brief FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy CLIENT BRIEF: OBJECTIVE: To identify investment needs for affordable housing and corresponding infrastructure and “ the build-out of urban services, addressing low carbon and climate cities, particularly resilient development and recommend housing and urban approaches and instruments for financing . services, is APPROACH: increasingly >> Investigate the financing needs & status for housing and basic infrastructure . dependent on >> Review financial instruments and their private developers features for urban development . and private >> Assess the impacts of financial instruments financing ” on a financial system level , particularly on the sustainability & resilience of the financial system. >> Describe and explore new financial instruments and sources of funding and examine greater private sector participation in the financing and delivery of green and climate resilient urban development . DEVE EVELOPM PMENT NT B BANK NK
Nigeria: Context & Problem-Opportunities FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy 1. Demographic + Urban Expansion 2. Global + Climate Economics Nigeria’s Population Doubles Approx. Cities must cope with challenges Every 25 Years, becomes more Urban, beyond their control, they must adapt & relatively less Rural. to and embrace inevitable change. Data Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division http://www.un.org/
Nigeria: Context & Problem-Opportunities FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy Problematizing ‘Sustainable’ Development: New Model(s) Needed The Global ‘North’ and ‘South’ both need a shift, to converge towards sustainable growth & consumption . SSA needs new models to drive transformative change towards the end goal of Sustainable Development. GLOBAL ‘NORTH’ ‘Developed World’ OVER -DEVELOPED Excess Consumption What Reduce Global Inequality ? How? “3L”* Growth? “Steady-State” Economy? Models “Enough for everyone, forever”** UNDER -DEVELOPED Lack of Basic Services GLOBAL ‘SOUTH’ * 3L Principle: “Long-life, Loose-fit, Low Energy”. Alexander Gordon, 1972 ‘ Developing World ’ ** Bension Varon, 1975
Methodological Approach FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy 1. Observational • Not prescriptive – Jane Jacobsian Approach • JJ transformed urban planning, as a non professional, by observing people’s use and behaviours in the city, “sidewalk ballet” • Nigerians are very capable at producing afford-able housing (however poorly built) Problems: Qualitative , not Quantitative Source: http://www.nesta.org.uk/ 2. Inclusive • Informality per se is not a barrier • Multi-national corporations business ecosystems span the entire economic spectrum from the capital markets to street-level traders & ‘informals’ (N100 recharge card sellers etc.) • Commercial ecosystems and value chains embrace & integrate all participants profitably Success = Inclusivity & Diversity Source: http://www.mtn-investor.com/
Methodological Approach FRUGS KA KATSI SINA Ci City-level S Study udy 3. Pragmatic • Working within existing frames of reference/laws etc. (i.e. Land Use Act, LG Act, Finance Frameworks) • Explore/exploit the current provisions and limitations, build on existing platforms • Going with the grain of political-economic realities Land Use Act (1978) is Cantankerous, but Useful 4. Resilient “Resilience is the capacity of a social- ecological system (SES) to absorb or A Resilience Approach Embraces Challenges as • withstand perturbations and other stressors Change Opportunities such that the system remains within the • Economic, Climatic and Political Challenges can same regime, essentially maintaining its Drive Reform Programmes & Innovation • In Nigeria the business-as-usual (BAU) model is structure and functions. It describes the broken. The recession and economic challenges degree to which the system is capable of represent an opportunity to drive change. self-organization, learning and Resilience: Change, Adapt, Diversify adaptation.” Source: http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/resilience
Katsina City-Study Context KA KATSI SINA S State, e, N Niger eria Katsina State KATSINA STATE: north-west region of Nigeria, lies in the Sub-Saharan, Sahel Savannah region of West Africa, with 90-100 Days of Growing Period (DGP) per annum (UN FAO). N
1978 urban footprint – 958 Ha (Pop. Est +100,000, Max Lock, 1978) 2005 urban footprint – 2,897 Ha (Pop. Est +300,000, Census, 2006) 2015 urban footprint – 4,959 Ha (Pop. Est. +500,000, Projected) ~400% Growth Urban Footprint & Pop. in 40 yrs. 12 12 6 11 11 5 13 13 Gabas Arewa 4 7 1 LEGEND Yamma 1. Emir’s Palace Kudu 8 3 2. Kofar Sabuwa City Gate 3. Kofar Yandoka City Gate 2 4. Kofar Guga City Gate 9 5. Kofar Waziri City Gate 10 10 6. Kofar Sauri City Gate 7. Kofar Durbi City Gate 8. Kofar Marusa City Gate 9. Kofar Kaura City Gate 10. Kofar Kwaya City Gate 11. Katsina Airport 14 14 12. New Government House 13. GRA (Govt Reserved Area) 14. Katsina State Secretariat Old City Ward Boundaries; Arewa – North, Kudu – South, 0 0.5 1 2 3 5Km Gabas – East, Yamma – West N
Katsina City: Study Context Katsina C City: Initial S SWOT A Analysis (I) STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES S1: Excellent Basic City Road Network W1: Slow Local Economy (Micro Trading) Few formal/industrial jobs, many small-scale/MSME* Katsina City has unusually well developed roads W2: Poor Power & Energy (Cooking) Supply S2: Manageable Katsina State Debt Burden Chronic power shortages, fuel-wood dependence State history of fiscal prudence, living within means W3: Unplanned, Informal Sprawl S3: Cohesiveness, High Social Capital Urban investment not keeping pace with population Emirate, Traditional & Social Structure is strong [*MSME – Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises] OPPORTUNITIES Opportunity-Strength Strategies Opportunity-Weakness Strategies (Use Strengths to take advantage of Opportunities ) (Use Opportunities to off-set Weaknesses ) Op1: 1 No. Prime Local Government for City S1-Op1 : Joint Maintenance & Planning Op1-W1 : LG Market Management Plan City has 1 Main LGA + 4 in Secondary/metro area LGs can support State on markets and SWM* Op2: 5-Year Development Plan in Place State & LGA can form Joint City Planning Forum Op2-W2 : Power/Energy Sector Strategy Katsina State has a 5-Year MTEF* (2016-2020) S2-Op2 : Investment Platform ‘Village’ Solar Off-grid Investment Plan Op3: Active Informal Property Market Fiscal prudence attractive to potential investors Op3-W3 : Formalisation/Regularization Local builders can deliver homes affordably S3-Op3 : Engagement/Innovation in LED* Upscale activities of informal developers Community Engagement & Mobilization possible [*MTEF – Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, a 5-year budget, the ‘ Katsina Restoration Development Plan ’] [*Markets & SWM are LG responsibility but done by State] [*LED – Local Economic Development] THREATS Threat-Strength Strategies Threat-Weakness Strategies T1: Population Growth & Ecological Stress (Use Strengths to avoid Threats ) (Minimize Weaknesses & avoid Threats ) T1-S1 : Urban Boundary/Control Sprawl Impact T1-W3 : Contain Sprawl, Intensify Development Pressure on local forests and ecosystems resources T2: Sewage Infrastructure Gap Use Outer Ring-Road as an Urban Boundary Increase urban planning & monitoring capacity Very poor sewage & waste water management T2-S2 : WAT-SAN PPP/Investment T2-W2 : Sustainable Sewage Treatment Plan services. No city sewage treatment plant. Ajiwa Dam upgrade needs Sewage equivalent Design low-power, low-water sewage strategy T3: Long-term Unemployment/Jobs T3-S3 : Labour-intensive Job Strategy T3-W1 : Skills/Education Strategy Chronic unemployment situation. Intergenerational Use local and family networks for labour-intensive Up-skilling and training programme, introduce family poverty & cross-border migration from Niger.. local projects to ‘mop up’ unemployed basic technology, improved business systems
Katsina City: Study Context Katsina C City: Initial S SWOT A Analysis (II) SWOT Notes & Photos from Scoping Visit 21 st -24 th June, 2016: 2 1 Photo Notes 1. An informally built, affordable housing layout in Kwado area. 2. Formally built, traditional-style. 3 3. Houses built on a flood-plain.
Katsina City: Study Context Katsina C City: Initial S SWOT A Analysis (III) SWOT Notes & Photos from Scoping Visit 21 st -24 th June, 2016: 4 Photo Notes 4. Friday Market, Emir’s palace. 5. Low-income households depend 5 on scarce firewood for cooking.
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