Adequacy inaugural workshop Risks missing in the existing - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Adequacy inaugural workshop

Risks missing in the existing methodology ADDRESSED RISKS SO&AF Assesses the ability of the generation to match the consumption in some predefined snapshots (upward margin at peak load). Seasonal Outlooks Assess the upward adequacy and the downward adequacy of the power system during the successive season using a sequence of snapshots which represent: - Weekly peak load (upward) - Weekly minimal demand conditions daily and nightly (downward) Changes in: For the future,  Energy mix (eg. RES integration) which additional risks will  Market structure (eg. IEM) need to be addressed?  Consumption behaviour (eg. DSM)

Risks missing in the existing methodology ... Risk of „missing capacities “

Slide 4 – Introducing flexibility: Flexibility: The ability to control the processes of production and consumption in order to continuously meet the power balance in the system Increasing RES Load + RES infeed infeed is changing patterns for residual load regulation What is from your point of view the best way to introduce flexibility resources in the adequacy assessment?

Different uses of adequacy reports Different kind of risk exposure: Short term : - sensitivity on climate fluctuations - production changes (generation, grid …) - energy commodities prices - seasonality Long term : - sensitivity on macro economical indicators - investment risk, political decision (EU goals ..) - global factors, fundamentals Different attitude to the risk of the stakeholders: - investors, generation providers - TSO, market operators, regulators - politicians, state institutors, EC Different uses may focus - developers, energy substituents on specific benchmarks, Different scale of impact: - local, regional vs. pan-European granularity and structure - economical sustainability - environmental of the assessment

Additional Value of Pan EU studies NO IMPORTS REQUIRED NO IMPORTS REQUIRED to cover demand + reserves to cover demand + reserves Regional Analysis IMPORT REQUIRED IMPORT REQUIRED required import <= simultaneous import capacity required import <= simultaneous import capacity Week 4 IMPORT REQUIRED IMPORT REQUIRED required import > simultaneous import capacity required import > simultaneous import capacity Wind infeed no use of NTC estimated no use of NTC estimated use of NTC < 50 % use of NTC < 50 % 75 % > use of NTC > 50 % 75 % > use of NTC > 50 % 100 % > use of NTC > 75 % 100 % > use of NTC > 75 % Full use of NTC estimated Full use of NTC estimated No NTC value No NTC value

ECG SG Adequacy | Nicolas Kitten | 24 April 2013

Adequacy on different time horizons Short term Long term 1 year 5 years 10 years 6 months Operational Investment Policy/political decisions decisions decisions Which risks do you consider should be addressed in the different time horizons?

Prioritisation Severe conditions: Wider load increase difference and generation in scenarios Load constraints management Retrospect Natural information gas Transparency, supply public threats System consultation flexibility Use of probabilistic approach

Stakeholders • What can your input and added value be to the assessments and the improvement of the methodology?

THANK YOU