ADA COUNTY Presented by: Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC Building - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET & ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA COUNTY Presented by: Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho January 15, 2020 Boise, ID

Introduction & Welcome Topics: 1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast 2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building 3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA and Savings

Local Housing Report

Top 10 States in Percent Growth 2019 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Idaho Utah Texas South Carolina Colorado Florida North Carolina Nevada Arizona Washington

A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY Total Single Family Home Sales 14000 12208 12000 11559 11549 11263 11048 10370 10000 9553 8991 8124 7963 8000 7565 7115 6839 6761 6726 6498 6172 5892 6098 6000 5683 5154 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 RECOVERY BOOM 2004-2007 BUST 2008-2011 BOOM 2015- Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales 14000 12208 12000 11559 11549 11263 11048 10370 10000 9553 8991 8452 8489 8280 8124 7963 7849 7775 8000 7565 7349 7115 6839 6761 6726 6538 6498 6450 6411 6172 5892 6098 5998 5683 5620 5682 6000 5265 5186 5131 5154 4900 4678 4493 3873 3815 3700 4000 3279 3125 2596 2774 2609 2210 1877 1433 1674 1552 1778 2000 1366 1190 986 878 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price 2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY $400,000 40% $359,900 $350,000 35% $354,900 $353,600 $349,999 $350,000 $350,000 $349,000 $344,545 $336,566 $333,900 $330,500 $325,000 $324,900 $324,295 $324,250 $321,398 $318,600 $316,500 $314,539 $306,546 $300,000 30% $305,000 $298,450 $297,000 $279,900 $250,000 25% Median Sales $ % Change $200,000 20% $150,000 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% $100,000 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% $50,000 5% $0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price 2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $ Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY $500,000 40% $450,000 35% $439,900 $409,900 $400,000 $403,272 $401,702 $399,912 $398,641 30% $393,245 $392,526 $389,900 $389,990 $388,235 $387,780 $379,990 $379,900 $376,000 $375,546 $373,390 $370,392 $367,000 $365,752 $362,000 $350,000 $357,500 $349,713 $344,535 25% $300,000 Median Sales $ % Change 20% $250,000 15% 13% $200,000 11% 10% 10% 10% $150,000 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% $100,000 3% 3% 6% 0% 0% $50,000 -1% -1% $0 -5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

Ada County Permits 6000 5000 4000 Single Family Permits 3000 Mulit-Family Permits 2000 1000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Single Family Permits 2500 Boise 2000 Meridian 1500 Eagle Star 1000 Kuna Ada County 500 Garden City 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Multi-Family Permits 1400 1200 Boise 1000 Meridian Eagle 800 Star 600 Kuna 400 Ada County 200 Garden City 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY 2008 2017 2018 2019 5500 5077 5049 4995 4882 4878 5000 4772 4648 4573 4424 4409 4500 4270 3948 4000 3500 3000 2500 2013 1967 1952 1937 1897 1808 2000 1705 1884 1645 1817 1726 1717 1504 1680 1677 1659 1422 1406 1371 1790 1530 1510 1686 1506 1500 1445 1463 1423 1362 1333 1476 1287 1279 1209 1185 1178 1233 1000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY 2008 2017 2018 2019 4000 3920 3910 3795 3770 3706 3581 3555 3500 3430 3405 3206 3029 3005 3000 2500 2000 1500 1270 1228 1226 1199 1068 1052 1005 1000 919 913 920 898 879 885 889 862 816 797 774 737 737 727 704 700 669 679 640 582 555 562 516 503 500 489 620 488 424 417 0 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY 2008 2017 2018 2019 1400 1301 1265 1300 1243 1225 1218 1167 1200 1129 1083 1066 1100 1018 979 1003 1000 977 912 919 930 877 874 856 900 838 879 817 807 848 840 782 829 773 816 814 754 800 785 816 774 766 767 718 761 756 724 711 700 697 689 668 647 647 600 600 583 500 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 Ada Odds 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Months to Sell Present Inventory 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

AC23 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS 1.3 Total Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds 1.7 6 $1,000,000 + 2 $700-999,999 8 2 $500-699,999 3 2 $400-499,999 3 1 $300-399,999 3 0 $250-299,999 2 0 $200-249,999 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Months to Sell Present Inventory Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 Ada Odds 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Months to Sell Present Inventory 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 Ada Odds 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Months to Sell Present Inventory 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2017 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 Ada Odds 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Months to Sell Present Inventory 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 Jan Jul 2016 Jan Jul 2017 Jan Jul 2018 Jan Jul 2019 Jan Jul Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

A48 - Ada County PENDING NEW CONSTRUCTION Sales 2018 Pending Sales Units 2019 Pending Sales Units % Change 1000 30% 942 26% 891 900 878 862 857 25% 837 838 815 806 796 793 800 766 759 759 756 741 20% 719 718 700 18% 683 700 670 17% 647 641 15% 598 600 % Change 11% 11% 500 10% 400 6% 5% 300 1% 0% 200 -3% -5% -5% -6% -6% 100 -7% 0 -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

AC24 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction 3 Total Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds 4 6 $1,000,000 + 0 4 $700-999,999 0 3 $500-699,999 5 3 $400-499,999 4 3 $300-399,999 6 1 $250-299,999 5 0 $200-249,999 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Months to Sell Present Inventory Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS