accuracies Arie ten Cate Estimating reporting accuracies exp imp - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The harmonisation of mirror data using simultaneously estimated accuracies Arie ten Cate

Estimating reporting accuracies exp − 𝑦 𝑗𝑘 imp • discrepancies Δ 𝑗𝑘 ≡ 𝑦 𝑗𝑘 • average discrepancy per country? • simultaneously estimate all accuracies • accurate: small bias or small variance?

The bias model • every country has an export bias and an import bias exp − 𝜈 𝑘 imp E Δ 𝑗𝑘 = 𝜈 𝑗 • Tsigas, Hertel & Binkley, 1992 • restriction needed exp + Σ μ 𝑘 imp = 0 Σ μ 𝑗

The variance model • every country has an export variance and an import variance • independent reporters exp + V imp Var Δ 𝑗𝑘 = 𝑊 𝑗 𝑘 • Stone, Champernowne and Meade, 1942 exp = Σ 𝑊 imp • restriction Σ 𝑊 𝑗 𝑘 • hard to estimate - multiple likelihood maxima

Applications • Trade in services in the EU – very large discrepancies – UK, Germany, France, Italy • World trade in goods – data Tsigas et al. – USA, Japan, EC, other W-Europe, NewZealand