“A re -appraisal of the formulation of and empirical evaluation of migration theories.” Fernando Riosmena Population Program and Geography Department University of Colorado at Boulder Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America
A new Era of transnational migrations (& transnationalism)? Slowdown in Mexico-US, continued migration/displacement from NTCA Still, large Mexico – U.S. flows driven by as many – if not more varied – motivations than previously, incl. to some extent violence & climate-related migration Three ‘caging’ effects in Mesoamerica-US migration dynamics Reduced (voluntary) return from US Forced/voluntary return migrant “resettlement” not in original sending areas, but in Mexican borderlands & main urban centers Larger, slower, more multifaceted transit migrations across L. America that are becoming “slow - floating,” more settled
First caging effect in Mexico – U.S. migration: reduced voluntary return by people otherwise presumably willing to circulate Source: Massey, D.S., Durand, J. and Pren, K. 2015 . “Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 41 (7):1015-1040.
Second caging effect in (Mexico – US) migration: deportees (& their relatives) not settling in original sending communities, but disproportionately doing so in the Borderlands & in major cities. Source: Giorguli-Saucedo & Gutiérrez(2012) based on 2000 & 2010 Mexican Census data.
Second caging effect in (Mexico – US) migration: deportees (& their relatives) not settling in original sending communities, but disproportionately doing so in the Borderlands & in major cities. Source: Giorguli-Saucedo & Gutiérrez(2012) based on 2000 & 2010 Mexican Census data.
Third caging effect in L. America – U.S. migration: longer, more multifaceted transit with settlement “along the way.” Source: Fernández Casanueva & Rodríguez (2016).
Migration studies for a new Era These changing dynamics, plus … … increasingly heterogeneous multi-staged migrations … … asynchronous migration transitions across places … … More complex migration systems … … highlight/exacerbate substantive & methodological challenges in … … measurement of migration, … its drivers, & … translocal & transnational social spaces it creates
Migration studies for a new Era Methodologically, … … how to capture some of these migrations at all/much more substantially? … how to capture them in all of their complexity? Substantively, … Better formulation & empirical test of migration theories Stronger links between international, forced, & internal migration studies Stronger theoretical & empirical links between classical migration theories (e.g., in Population Studies) & (anthro-/sociological) literature on transnationalism
Migration studies for a new Era: substantive challenges Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
1. In light of caging effects: how to assess validity of theories when people are settling when/where they did not mean to, or not returning when they would have otherwise given their initial migration motivations? Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
(1 st caging effect in Mexico – U.S. migration complicates understanding of whether e.g., NELM is less relevant today…) Source: Massey, D.S., Durand, J. and Pren, K. 2015 . “Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 41 (7):1015-1040.
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Theories explaining the initiation of flows: location and social complexity scale World-systems Broader social Historical- structures structural Social complexity scale Markets Neoclassical New economics of Segmented labor labor migration market Institutions Networks New economics of labor Families migration (decision sphere) Neoclassical Individuals (decision sphere) Factors in sending areas Factors in destinations
Three caging effects may also question relevance of intended motivations & time horizon of migration on the formation of particular transnational social spaces Source: Pries (2001)
2. To better understand decline in Mexico-US migration, theories of the “perpetuation/continuation” of migration need to be reformulated to consider ways in which prior migration generates feedbacks that contribute to a subsequent decline in flows Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
30 950 Economic slowdown as a result of the global financial crisis was a major catalyzer for slowdown in Mexico-US migration… 900 25 850 Job Gains in construction in the U.S. 20 800 15 750 International out-migration 700 10 650 5 600 0 550 2005/2 2005/3 2005/4 2006/1 2006/2 2006/3 2006/4 2007/1 2007/2 2007/3 2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4 2010/1 2010/2 2010/3 2010/4 2011/1 2011/2 2011/3 2011/4 2012/1 2012/2 2012/3 2012/4 2013/1 2013/2 2013/3 2013/4 2014/1 2014/2 2014/3 2014/4 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3 Source: Villarreal (2017) based on ENOE data.
…besides other possible latent factors in (some) sending areas, including demographic, economic, and ideational change. Source: Hanson & McIntosh (2010)
…besides other possible latent factors in (some) sending areas, including demographic, economic, and ideational change. Source: Hanson & McIntosh (2010)
However, clear possibility of negative, migration-fueled social multipliers (including those operating through immigration policy)… Source: Massey, D.S. and Pren, K. 2012. “Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Policy: Explaining the Post- 1965 Surge from Latin America.” Population and Development Review 38 (1):1-29.
Theories explaining cumulative causation of flows (all migration-fueled): location & spatial scale *Cumulative causation Broader social structures Land use changes → inequality, “displacement” Social scale Δ origin -destination Markets Social labeling wage gaps Institutional theory Institutions CA: migration culture Social capital theory Networks (CC) Network expansion Families Individuals Factors in sending areas Factors in destinations
Other possible mechanisms of negative cumulative causation The limits of social capital In resources, and thus in growth of “sources” e.g., due to worse opportunities in destinations (& negative externalities) (Bauer 2008; De Haas 2010; Menjívar 2000; Portes 1998) Other mechanisms that explain declines, sometimes migration-fueled Closing of wage gaps, better market & institutional functioning Lower inequality in sending areas (e.g., due to redistributive policies, programs) Positive social multipliers of migration on sending community development Weakening of “culture of migration” (e.g., by shifts in youth aspirations) Biggest challenge to identify these mechanisms and role of migration therein 35
3. Better understanding of contemporary (rise &) decline in Mexico- US migration ( and in nations that have not approached to net zero ) may advance theoretical formulation & empirical testing of migration stages/transitions Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
A broader theoretical & empirical vision could contribute to a better systematic understanding of the migration “life cycle” Source: de Haas, H. (2010) The Internal Dynamics of Migration Processes: A Theoretical Inquiry , Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies , 36:10, 1587-1617
Source: Lindstrom, D. & A. López Ramírez. (2010). Pioneers and Followers: Migrant Selectivity and the Development of U.S. Migration Streams in Latin Also need to improve knowledge America. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences. 630:53-77. of factors leading to “takeoff” of migration at local, micro-regional, national, and regional scales
This inquiry would benefit from being done in conjunction with that trying to understand transition of (nations) from being countries of emigration to being destinations (for nationals & foreigners) Source: De Haas, H. (2010). Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration. Working Paper No. 24. Oxford: ? International Migration 39 Institute.
4. Era of extended transit calls for stronger theoretical and empirical integration between international and internal migration studies. Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
Source King, R. & R. Skeldon. (2010) “ 'Mind the Gap!' Integrating Approaches to Internal and International Migration.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. p. 1-28.
5. Eras of decline, deportation, & extended transit call for better theoretical & empirical integration between (quantitative) international migration theory testing & transnationalism scholarship Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.
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