A half-Century Record of State-by-State Changes in Fossil- Fuel Carbon Emissions and Corresponding Isotope Ratios in the United States T. J. Blasing Independent Scholar Presented at the NOAA, GMD, ESRL Annual Conference, May 20, 2013
“I married you for better or for worse but not for lunch; find something to get yourself outta the house when you retire.” - - - - Carolyn Blasing
Sponsors: WORK Sponsor: TRAVEL T.J. and Carolyn Blasing Vacation Fund
State by state energy related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel back to 1980 http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/state_emissions.cfm State by state energy related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel back to 1980 1960 Available from T.J. Blasing t.j.blasing@outlook.com
Methods Recalculate Emissions. Recalculate all emissions from SEDS data. * Calculate emissions through 2010 by same method. Unite the 2 data sets. Calculate EIA/TJ for 1980-1984 TJB data Multiply TJ 1960’s and 1970’s by ratio TJ X EIA TJ Use the result for 1960s and 70s USE EIA numbers for 1980 forward VOILA !! Continuous time series. * Things have changed: 1. We now assume 100% Combustion. 2. Some heat and carbon coefficients have changed slightly. 3. Some fuel-use figures have been refined. 4. Other changes (See North Dakota)
Change in C Emissions 1960-2010 Change in C Emissions 1960-2010 (Tg-C) 13 2 7 11 1 6 3 -0.3 MA 12 2 -10 11 -1 RI 2 15 10 -0.1 CT 2 8 NJ 13 8 9 11 0.2 DE 12 25 12 6 MD 14 19 12 22 47 10 27 -1 DC 25 14 19 22 16 10 12 19 37 13 112 39 51 9 3 TOTAL = + 742
Tg-C Change in C Emissions 2000-2010 (Tg-C) -11 -16
Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Mg/person-year) 1960-2010 Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions 1960-2010 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 5.4 16.4 0.2 1.0 -0.9 MA -1.0 2.5 1.2 0.6 -1.3 RI 23.8 0.0 -1.2 CT -0.5 4.0 -0.4 NJ -0.7 3.5 0.0 -3.1 DE -0.2 -0.2 1.8 -0.7 1.0 7.5 -1.1 MD -0.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 -1.3 DC 0.9 0.2 0.8 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.9 2.2 2.3 3.6 0.2 6.6 0.4 10.1 0.8
Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Mg/person-year) 2000-2010 NJ
Change in δ 13 C (per mil) in Emitted Fossil-Fuel Carbon: 2000-2010 1960-2010
Change in δ 13 C in Emitted Fossil-fuel Carbon 2000-2010 Change in δ 13 C (per mil) in Emitted Fossil-Fuel Carbon: 2000-2010
Carbon Emissions from the 50 United States and the District of Columbia
Carbon Emissions from the 50 United States and the District of Columbia (through 2012) 800 700 550/700 ≈ 80% 600 Emissions (Tg-C) 500 400 300 200 Decrease of 132 Tg-C since 2000 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review April 2014 Table 12.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption by Source
8 Northeastern States -- by fuel 160 CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT Coal Oil Gas 140 Emissions (Tg-C) 120 100 85/140 ≈ 60% 80 85/120 ≈ 70% 60 40 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Net Generation from Coal and Natural Gas 3.5 Net Generation (PW-h) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Coal Gas Total 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Coal Exports U.S. annual exports by country of Total coal Million short tons of coal destination back to 2000 INTERACTIVE Coal Data Browser http://www.eia.gov/coal/data.cfm#imports Metallurgical Coal Last accessed 14 May 2014 Steam Coal Increase in coal exports = 38.5 Tg-C; increase in natural gas exports = 19.4 Tg-C Total increase in exported carbon = 57.9 Tg-C Using MER heat coefficients and EPA carbon coefficients emissions.
I = P • A • T Kaya I dentity and Related Concepts p = population GDP = gross domestic product e = energy c = fossil carbon emitted Fc = airborne fraction Δ c = change in atmospheric carbon population affluence energy carbonization carbon term factor emitted intensity ● ● e ● c p GDP = c e p GDP = Δ c p ● GDP ● c ● Fc p GDP carbon carbon-cycle rate of carbon intensity dependent accumulation
No wonder we’re losing !!! GDP E C GDP
Carbon Emissions from Texas Oil Texas Oil 120 100 80 Tg-C 60 40 CDIAC EIA 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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