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UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\ SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESS Internalional Excellence The Outlook for Hawaiis Economy and Labor Market Dr. Jack Suyderhoud Shidler College of Business University of Hawaii at Mnoa suyderho@hawaii.edu

  1. UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\ SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESS Internalional Excellence The Outlook for Hawaii’s Economy and Labor Market Dr. Jack Suyderhoud Shidler College of Business University of Hawai’i at Mãnoa suyderho@hawaii.edu November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  2. A g e n d a Current economic conditions D Contributors to GDP Labor market trends i Forecasts Features of the Hawaii labor market Things that concern me External i Internal i November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 2

  3. Current Economic Conditions Hawaii Workforce Development Council 3 November 4, 2016

  4. e6ULI3 4U&UOd IIUUV CN CD t co C%1 CD • I - - (saj) 9IO (se) g a t I,o £ IO [O Ill .bJ L IO — tU Ew • o i.o 0 6OO • I... 0% o goo E C.? -C - 0 o - LOOK C 1’ .1-i 9OO U o 0 soot 0 In 1 > I., voo C 0 £OO E OO • : 0 - • EIoo C 0 I U LU ooo .4- 0 • — 666 [ a) w .— 866 I 1t) L66 I a a) 0 -D 2 cli > 0 z

  5. rDrivers of Hawaii’s Economy Hawaii Real GDP by Industry: 2013 Real estate and rental and ieaslng 142 Federal government State and local government Professional and business services Accommodation and food services Retail trade Health care and social assistance of Total Real GDP Real GDP $70.1B Construction Transportation and warehousing Whoiesaie trade Finance and insurance Utilities information Other services, except government Manufacturing .1. Educational services 1. .7 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 17 Agriculture, forestry. fishing, and hunting O.6fl 0.4 Mining 0.1 0.1 hesearch Fconomic Tourism consists of partial of other industries and contributed 16 855, of rea’ GOP in 2013 Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis DBEE.W November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 5

  6. T o u r i s m Dependence Varies b y C o u n t y Relative Importance of Tourism Sector 1990 •2007 2014 15 1o I i > Maui Kauai Hawaii Island Oahu State Source: Author, using HTA and DBEDT data November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 6

  7. Record State Visitor Arrivals 2016 j 2013 2014 <2015 2016 850,000 • 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 E Z 600,000 550,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 7

  8. State Visitor Spending Increases Monthly State Visitor Spending Patterns, 2009-2016 Percent Change from Prior Year I Visitor SDendinci ($mil, Seas. Adil (Left Axis 30’Yo L.. Cu a, 20%>- 0 I C Cu 4fl0I - — IV /00 C a) -20% a, 0 -30% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I >1 0. 0. 0. > 0. > 0. >‘. >‘ >i cu cu Cu Cu cu c 0’ cu CUG) cu Cu 01 cu Cu 0’Cu Cu 0’ cu Cu aj Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 8

  9. z 0 Seas. Adj. Visitor Arrivals as % of Jan. 3 2008 - - - - w 00 CD %) O .i r’J - O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 —. Jul-10 — o Dec-10 0 2 May-11 Oct-Il I Mar-12 Aug-12 Di 00 Dl c Jan-13 — C, -I ft Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 : Sep-14 -‘ Feb-15 Jul-15 ‘-p Dec-15 -‘ May-16

  10. 0 CD B 0 CD NI ID V.’ r1 Jan-07 I-,. CD Jul-07 z 0 Jan-08 Jul-08 00 Jan-09 0 Jul-09 DI C “I DI Jan-10 I- CD 0 Jul-10 -h 0 Jan-Il CD Jul-Il CD rD 5-fl Jan-12 Jul-12 m , C D Jan-13 CD 3 Jul-13 C •C V.’ Jan-14 CD I-,. - CD Jul-14 0 Jan-15 00 I Di 1. Jul-15 0 -I Jan-16 t-,. Di I-,. Jul-16 “I C, —J 0 (0 [‘3 (3 4 ( Q — “I Unemployment Rate (Percent)

  11. But Underutilization Stays High Difference Labor Underulitization Rate (U6) ‘—Head1ine Unemp Rate (U3) 18 16 14 12 4-I rnIuIilltDffiiIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIrIiiifltIil+I aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 000000000000 0000000000000000000000000 Source: Fed Res Bank 11 November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  12. Job Recovery Uneven Across Counties Job Patterns by Counties (indexed change, Dec. 2007=100%) 0ahu Hawaii Island —Maui —Kauai 110% 80% E 75% o 0 0 0 0 0 0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Source: DBEDT November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 12

  13. Likewise for Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate by County (SeasonIly Adjusted) 12 1! —Hawaii County 10 Kauai Cou nty Maui County 8 Honolulu County 7 6: 5 4 3 2 1 - o rfl r — fl) t L.fl Lfl tO tO F.. fl. CO 03 0) 0, 0 0 .—4 Fr) rr) In Lfl to to fla n.j 0) 0) 0’ 0’ 0’ 0) 0’ 0’ 0 0 0) 7 I — — — — — — -; I Chart by DBEDT 1 if ‘ November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 13

  14. Job Growth Honolulu Change in Jobs from Same lVlonth in Prior Year (Honolulu County, August 2016) Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr. Professional & Business Services Health Care & Social Assistance Food Services & Drinking Places Accommodation Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Educational Services Federal Financial Activities Transp., Warehousing, Util. Local Other Services I Retail Trade I P Manufacturing Information I Wholesale Trade Government State -. 2,000 4,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 0 f,-.,tr,,.,,;, Lb., I Chart by DBEDT 14 November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  15. Job Growth Maui County Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Maui County, August 2016) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Health Care & Social Assistance State Other Services Food Services & Drinking Places Professional & Business Services Government Transp., Warehousing, Util. Financial Activities Information Man u fact u ring Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr. Federal Educational Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Local Accommodation 200 400 600 800 -400 -200 0 Chart by DBEDT 15 November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  16. Job Growth Hawaii Island Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Hawaii County, August 2016) Food Services & Drinking Places Health Care & Social Assistance State Nat, Resources, Mining, Constr. Government A cc omm o dat on Information Educational Services Transp., Warehousing, Util. Manufacturing Federal Other Services Professional & Business Services Retail Trade - \/Vholesale Trade Local Fin ancial Activities Arts, Entertainment & Recreation -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 S Chart by DBEDT November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 16

  17. Job Growth Kauai Change in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year (Kauai County, August 2016) Food Services & Drinking Places - Health Care & Social Assistance Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr. State Government Accommodation Other Services Information Local Federal Educational Services Transp., Warehousing, Util. Retail Trade Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Professional & Business Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0 400 600 800 -600 -400 -200 200 Chart by DBEDT 17 November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  18. Forecasts for Hawaii November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 18

  19. Council on Revenues GDP Forecast Hawaii Real GOP Growth, 2005-2019 6 5 4 ‘-3 m III 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 November 4, 2016 19 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

  20. _______________ Visitor Arrival Forecast DBEDT Forecasts (30 2016): Visitor Arriva’s Visitor Arrivals (Air only) Air only Total 9.5 18,. annual annual a growth person growth person 15% l%l 1%) 9.0 2005 7,416,574 7.3% 7,494,236 7.2% 12% 8.5 2006 7,528,105 1.5% 7,628,117 1.8% 9% 8.0 2007 7,496,820 -0.4% 7,627,819 0.0% 6% 2008 6,713,436 -10.4% 6,822,912 -10.6% 3% 7.5 0% 2009 6,420,448 -4.4% 6,517,054 -4.5% 7,0 -3% 7,018,133 7.7% 2010 6,916,894 7.7% 2011 7,174,398 3.7% 7,299,048 4.0% 2012 7,867,143 9.7% 8,028,742 10,0% ]. ii . .ii... 2013 8,003,474 1,7% 8,174,460 1.8% 2014 8,196,342 24% 8,320,785 1.8% . 2015 8,563,018 4,5% 8,679,564 4,3% - ,, 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 8.844,176 2016 8,732,583 2 0’. 1 9 Visitor arrival (person) —-—-Annual growth rate )%) 2017 8,885,4’t6 1.83u 8,997,040 1.7’,, 9,156,579 1 8’. 2018 9,044,986 1.8’. 2019 9,205,102 1.8% 9,316,696 1.7’ Chart by DBEDT November 4,, 201 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 20

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