www.cdfi.org A Changing Congress Paul Anderson Rapoza Associates
113 th Congress House: • GOP 232, Dems 199, Vacancies 4 Senate: • Dems 55*, GOP 45 *Includes King (I ‐ ME) and Sanders (I ‐ VT) who caucus with the Democrats
Recent Congressional Turnover Experience, House of Representatives, 113 th Congress
113th Congress - Turnover Retirements, resignations, etc • 47 Members of the House • 11 members of the Senate – Saxby Chambliss, R ‐ Ga., 70, 2 terms – Tom Harkin, D ‐ Iowa, 74, 5 terms – Mike Johanns, R ‐ Neb., 62, 1 term – Tim Johnson, D ‐ S.D., 67, 3 terms – Carl Levin, D ‐ Mich., 79, 6 terms – Jay Rockefeller, D ‐ W.Va., 76, 5 terms – Tom Coburn, R ‐ Okla., 65, 2 terms – Max Baucus, D ‐ Mont., 72, 6 terms – Jim DeMint, R ‐ S.C., 62, 2 terms – John Kerry, D ‐ Mass., 70, 5 terms – Frank R. Lautenberg, D ‐ N.J., 89, 5 terms
Midterm Outlook • Historical trends are overrated • The issues are a wash • Democrats face significant challenges thanks to an unfavorable the map and structural forces out of their control • Demographics of congressional elections are like a metronome
Something Has to Give? Approval of Congressional Republicans 80 70 60 50 40 Approve 30 Disapprove 20 10 Unsure 0
Partisan Lean of House/ Senate Seats Cook Partisan Voting Index, Senate Cook Partisan Voting Index, House 169, seats 47 seats 38% 256 seats, 52 seats 59% 10 seats, 3% 1 D EVEN R R Even D seat
Demographics of Midterm E lections Midterm turnout is older than Presidential turnout •
Demographics of Midterm E lections Midterm election turnout is less diverse than presidential election turnout •
Senate Outlook – GOP needs 51 for majority 2013 Obama Approval, selected states: • Montana: 33% • Louisiana: 40% • Kentucky: 35% Arkansas: 35% • • South Dakota: 32% • Alaska: 34% Source Safe/Likely Dem Leans Dem Tossup Leans GOP Safe/Likely GOP GOP Projection Cook 46 4 3 3 44 48.5 Rothenberg 47 1 5 2 45 49.5 Sabato 46 2 3 4 45 50.5 Average 46.3 2.3 3.7 3.0 44.7 49.5
House Outlook Cook Tossups: Democrats: Republicans: AZ ‐ 01 Kirkpatrick CO ‐ 06 Coffman AZ ‐ 02 Barber FL ‐ 13 VACANT Prediction: CA ‐ 07 Bera IA ‐ 03 OPEN CA ‐ 36 Ruiz NJ ‐ 03 OPEN • Status Quo CA ‐ 52 Peters 0 DEMOCRATS FL ‐ 18 Murphy 4 REPUBLICANS • R+1 FL ‐ 26 Garcia IL ‐ 10 Schneider NH ‐ 01 Shea ‐ Porter NY ‐ 21 OPEN WV ‐ 03 Rahall GOP Safe/Likely Dem Lean Dem Tossup Lean GOP Safe/Likely GOP Projection Cook 166 13 15 16 215 238.5 Rothenberg 179 14 15 10 217 234.5 Sabato 178 16 12 13 216 235 Needed for majority: 218
House Leadership Changes House Ways and Means: • Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp term limited. Paul Ryan may replace him. House Budget Committee: • Paul Ryan likely gives up Chair for Ways and Means
Senate Leadership Changes Senate Finance Committee: • Wyden (D ‐ OR) replaced Baucus (D ‐ MT) Senate Appropriations Committee: • Mikulski (D ‐ MD) replaced Inouye (D ‐ HI) Senate HELP Committee: Harkin (D ‐ IA) retiring • If Republicans win: • McConnell (KY) replaces Reid (NV)as majority leader; • Crapo (ID) replaces Johnson (SD) on Banking; Sessions (AL) replaces Murray (WA) on Budget; • • Shelby (AL) or Cochran (MS) replaces Mikulski (MD) on Appropriations
House Appropriations Committee Turnover Republicans Democrats • Harold Rogers, Kentucky, Chairman • Nita M. Lowey, New York • Frank R. Wolf, Virginia • Marcy Kaptur, Ohio • Jack Kingston, Georgia • Peter J. Visclosky, Indiana • Rodney P. Frelinghuysen, New Jersey • José E. Serrano, New York • Rosa L. DeLauro, Connecticut • Tom Latham, Iowa • James P. Moran, Virginia • Robert B. Aderholt, Alabama • Ed Pastor, Arizona • Kay Granger, Texas • David E. Price, North Carolina • Michael K. Simpson, Idaho • Lucille Roybal ‐ Allard, California • John Abney Culberson, Texas • Sam Farr, California • Chaka Fattah, Pennsylvania • Ander Crenshaw, Florida • Sanford D. Bishop, Jr., Georgia • John R. Carter, Texas • Barbara Lee, California • Ken Calvert, California • Adam B. Schiff, California • Tom Cole, Oklahoma • Michael M. Honda, California • Mario Diaz ‐ Balart, Florida • Betty McCollum, Minnesota • Tim Ryan, Ohio • Charles W. Dent, Pennsylvania • Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Florida • Tom Graves, Georgia • Henry Cuellar, Texas • Kevin Yoder, Kansas • Chellie Pingree, Maine • Steve Womack, Arkansas • Mike Quigley, Illinois • Alan Nunnelee, Mississippi • Bill Owens, New York • Jeff Fortenberry, Nebraska • Tom Rooney, Florida • Chuck Fleischmann, Tennessee • Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington • David Joyce, Ohio • David Valadao, California • Andy Harris, MD, Maryland • Martha Roby, Alabama • Mark Amodei, Nevada • Chris Stewart, Utah
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