29ISMOR Approaches for Vignette Based Analysis in a Changing World Jenny Young & Alistair Morley Operational Analysis, MBDA UK This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Contents • Context • MBDA OA group and our operating environment • What is a vignette? • Key components • How does a vignette differ from a scenario ? • Usage of vignettes in MBDA • Why do we use them ? • What do we use them for ? • Case Studies • Decision Challenges & Lessons learned • Summary Ref. : - Page 2 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
MBDA Operational Analysis Group • 12 Analysts based in UK • Part of the Future Systems Directorate • International Working • Focus on potential weapon system solutions for 2020+ • Primarily concept and assessment MBDA • European Centres of Excellence phase activities 10,000 people worldwide, 60% in Technical/Engineering functions Lostock • Typical Study Environment Brussels Production Representation Office USA 140 USA 140 Stevenage Stevenage Management Management • User & System Requirements are fluid R&D/Integration R&D/Integration UK 2,700 UK 2,700 Ulm London R&D • Management Different types of solution are possible GE 1,200 GE 1,200 Schrobenhausen Bristol Management/R&D/ Software & Systems • Production/ Integration Solutions are immature FR 4,500 FR 4,500 Aschau R&D/Production Compiègne • Limited data available Electronic Le Plessis-Robinson La Spezia • Limited time & resources Management/R&D R&D/Integration Région Centre Rome ES 8 ES 8 R&D/Production/ Management/R&D IT 1300 IT 1300 Integration Fusaro Madrid Production/Integration/R&D Management Ref. : - Page 3 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
What is a vignette (i) Vignette : Noun. Lit . “little vine” 1. a small illustration placed at the beginning or end of a book or chapter 2. a short graceful literary essay or sketch 3. a photograph, drawing, etc, with edges that are shaded off 4. architect a carved ornamentation that has a design based upon tendrils, leaves, etc 5. any small endearing scene, view, picture, etc Ref. : - Page 4 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Vignette Key Components 1. Identity 2. Problem statement Hasty defence against armour in rural 1. A BLUE armoured force is securing a forward objective when it 2. The enemy force presses the attack. The ground 3. EXCURSION. The attack is encounters a similar enemy force. The enemy appears to be forming up for is relatively open with some cover from vegetation supported by a Mi-24 3. Agents or Actors an attack and the BLUE force assumes hasty defensive positions. and abandoned homesteads. Helicopter at low level, targeting BLUE vehicles. 4. Constraints 5. Additional Information 3 Vignette 4 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 Vignette Constraints e.g. Operation: 1, 2 • Type: Phase: 1, 2 Target: • Type: Motion: Signature: HVT/TST: Effect / Kill Criteria: 1, 2 Defences: 1, 2 Environment: • Urban/Rural etc.: Terrain: Vegetation: Time (Day/Night): • Weather: Temperature: Altitude: Complete or Partial Solutions Op Environment: • False Targets: CCD: Sensor Jamming: GPS Jamming: Comms Jamming: DL Jamming: Targeting: Variations & Excursions • Method: Accuracy: Endurance: ROE: Collateral Damage: Fratricide Ref. : - Page 5 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Vignettes vs. Scenarios (i) • How does a vignette differ from a scenario? • Some suggestions.. • By taxonomic relation - A scenario (could) contain many vignettes • By detail - Far less information - De-situated context, usually lacking strategic context - Real-world geography less critical • By scale: - Smaller in time / duration - Smaller in space - Smaller in scale of forces involved (typically < sub-formation) - But can be ranges >1,000km, timespan of days, and include dozens of platforms. Ref. : - Page 6 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Vignettes vs. scenarios (ii) • How does a vignette differ from a scenario? (cont.) • By format - Typically richer in graphics and narrative, less quantitative. • By function - Often built for a specific analytical task (e.g. portfolio analysis) - ...and then adapted for other purposes - possibly in addition to scenario-like usage. • By user: - Accessible to non-specialists - Used outside the traditional analytical community - Problem of (false) familiarity! • By security classification: - Internationally shareable Ref. : - Page 7 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Why do we use Vignettes in MBDA ? Availability of GFX Funding constraints Applicable to Few high level multiple scenarios Multi-disciplinary models Teams Limited budget for International method studies development Enduring and robust to strategic System level Smaller studies / change focus less detail needed Appropriate level of detail Previous success Easy to create, Time constraints Easy to analyse / maintain & re-use score Ref. : - Page 8 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
What do we use Vignettes for ? • Customer acquisition planning and Industrial portfolio planning • In lieu of requirements – represents the ‘far’ future • Future Operational Requirements • Concurrency of requirements – ‘real life’ combinations • Shared awareness and understanding – International alignment of requirements • Context and illustration – for engineering team • Support to weapon system concept development • Emphasis: Illustrate and develop outline CONEMP • System & sub-system level trade-offs and down-selection How to create a • Force mix studies better • Do weapon system options complement or duplicate capability ? product • Competitor assessment & Win Themes • Stockpile planning • Sales and Marketing Ref. : - Page 9 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Representing the Solution • Solution constraints will become more “specific” as studies progress through the project lifecycle. Example Usage Launch Platform More solution Sales & Marketing Specific FJ specific illustration Project Lifecycle Candidate solution 1 or 2 types of FJ down-select Any FJ Solution CONEMP Any Air Launched Less solution Portfolio planning Any platform specific Ref. : - Page 10 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
Vignettes as components of a SCENARIO Alternative Operational Futures Stockpile Set of operational Planning futures Operational Future Force Mix or Set of scenarios. Portfolio Time-ordered with common protagonist Effectiveness Competitor Scenario Assessment & Win Themes Set of vignettes. Candidate Common setting and Solution frequency-weighted Effectiveness Vignette Ref. : - Page 11 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012. Not Protectively Marked
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