2021 Mayor’s Proposed Budget October 2020 1
2020 Economic Impacts April – Sept. City Revenues Forecasted to April/May February Drop $220 Economic Near Halt to U.S. million, Worst Recession Economy, Record Loss Since Begins Unemployment 1933 March April – Dec. Worldwide Leverage Pandemic $189 million to declared Support Denver’s pandemic response 2
Retail and Food Services YTD Monthly Sales YTD thru July 2020 from YTD thru July 2019 Percent Change -21.4% Food services & drinking places -38.0% -4.3% Motor vehicle & parts dealers -10.7% 11.3% Building material & garden dealers -1.9% 12.8% Food & Beverage Stores 4.0% -36.5% Clothing & accessories -34.2% -18.6% Electronics & appliance stores -6.6% -13.5% Furniture & home stores -3.3% -4.2% Miscellaneous Store Retailers -20.7% 19.8% Nonstore Retailers (Online & mail-order) 36.2% -18.5% Department Stores -11.3% -0.5% Health & Personal Care Stores -15.8% -2.2% Sports, hobby, music & book stores -19.2% -16.8% Gas Stations -9.0% -2.1% TOTAL: RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES -15.7% U.S. Retail Sales Denver Retail Sales 3
General Fund Forecast Total General Fund Revenue 1,600 1,406 Millions 1,345 1,400 1,328 1,309 1,265 1,238 1,204 1,200 1,125 1,036 1,000 871 903 935 866 810 800 600 400 200 - 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Est. Est. 4
Sales and Use Tax Forecast 2008-2019 Actual Collections, 2020-2021 Estimated $800 $734 Millions $691 $720 $700 $657 $637 $614 $555 $582 $600 $493 $500 $441 $451 $431 $388 $410 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Est. Est. Note: 2021 factors in new sales tax revenue from out-of-state retailers and expiring TIF districts. 5
Lodgers' Tax 2008-2019 Actual Collections, 2020-2021 Estimated $40 Millions $35.0 $35 $32.1$31.8 $30 $25.0 $25 $23.1 $21.1 $20 $17.6 $17.7 $15.2$15.9 $14.6 $11.9$13.3 $15 $11.7 $10 $5 $0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Est. Est. 6
2021 Budget - Priorities Identifies $154 million in agency savings • • Reflects priorities of financial stability and equity • Responds to COVID-19 pandemic • Supports people experiencing homelessness and under- resourced individuals Keeps people safe and neighborhoods safe • • Gets people back to work by rebuilding our local economy 7
2021 Budget – Agency Reductions • $154 million in Agency Savings including: • $39 million due to more than 400 vacancies • $13.8 million in reduced overtime spending for uniformed employees, and smaller recruit classes in safety agencies • $3.2 million in savings due to a forecasted smaller jail population • $24 million fewer dollars transferred from the General Fund to support capital improvement and fleet replacement • $3.9 million in facilities savings 8
2021 Budget Increases $5 million - operation of new 48 th Ave Shelter • $1.5 million - homeless outreach resources • • $3 million - property tax relief, TANF cash support, eviction assistance (DHS) • $1 million - STAR alternative response program grant match • $827,000 - new park land and COVID cleaning in rec centers $500,000 - youth violence prevention programming • • $300,000 - immigration legal defense fund • $3.5 million - Colorado Convention Center operations based on possible COVID closure for part of 2021 9
2021 Budget Capital Investments $478 million in capital delivery through 2023, including • Accelerating the Elevate Denver Bond Program and launching a $170 million fourth debt issuance 10
2021 Budget Capital Investments Every $1 million invested = $2 million in economic output Elevate Denver = 2x the size and impact of Better Denver Bond 11
2021 Mayor’s Proposed Budget 12
Projected Core Sales and Use Tax Collections Moving Quarterly Average 190 Millions 180 Baseline (Pre-Virus) Economic 170 Scenario 2 Condition: (May Scenario 1 160 Forecast) Is the 150 Economy 140 Scenario 2 (July Revision) Improving? 130 120 Scenario 3 (Virus Resurgence) 110 100 2019 2020 2021 2022 13
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