2020 Citrus Australia Market Outlook Forum - Melbourne 2019 Citrus Tree Census Will future production marry with expected demand? Mara Milner Market Information & Quality Project Officer, Citrus Australia
Presentation - overview • 2019 key changes • Oranges • Mandarins • Lemons
Data set Full Report (available April) Summary (available NOW!)
National trends 5 % 30,000 26,907 25,659 24,848 24,071 23,313 25,000 22,294 20,000 hectares 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 From 2014 the total hectares have increased by 21 %
National – Industry makeup Western Australia 4% 1,020 ha Riverina 30% Other 8,155 ha 5% 1,379 ha Queensland 20% 5,342 ha Riverland Murray Valley 20% 21% 5,405 ha 5,605 ha
National trends – by category % Increase Category 2019 ha % Total (from 2014) Oranges (all) 16,757 62 % 10 % Navel 10,338 62 % 19 % Juicing 6,419 38 % -3 % Mandarin & Tangelo 7,465 28 % 37 % Lemon & Lime 2,309 9 % 82 % Grapefruit & Pummelo 375 1 % 40 %
Predictions • Using 2019 Citrus Tree Census hectares • Predictions are if there are no more plantings • Tonnes per hectare used are from crop estimate meetings • Lemon and lime export data is one HS code (080550)
Orange prediction Average 2019 2023 tonnes Bearing Bearing Difference Window Variety per hectares hectares hectare (tonnes) (tonnes) Early Navel 35 58,000 68,000 + 10,000 May - Jun 35 96,000 122,000 + 26,000 Jun - Sep Mid & Red Flesh Navel Late Navel 35 160,000 + 9,000 Sep - Oct 169,000 Juice Varieties 30 179,000 193,000 + 14,000 Oct - Feb
2019 Orange facts Export • Australia exported 199,161 tonnes of oranges Volume in 2023 552,000 • 98 % was exported from May to December t onnes…… Import • Australia imported 13,728 tonnes of oranges • 100 % was imported from January to May and December Imported navels are favourerd over domestic Valencia’s
Other 2019 2023 Average Bearing Bearing Variety Window tonnes per Difference hectares hectares hectare (tonnes) (tonnes) Afourer (all) 45 48,000 103,000 + 55,000 Jul - Sep Murcott (all) 35 46,000 67,000 + 21,000 Jun - Sep Lemon 55 61,000 95,000 + 34,000 Jan - Dec Lime 40 20,000 24,000 + 4,000 Jan - Dec
2019 Mandarin facts Export • Australia exported 86,851 tonnes of mandarins Volume in 2023 170,000 • 99 % was exported from May to October t onnes…… Import • Australia imported 4,439 tonnes of mandarins • 99 % was imported from January to March and December Imported mandarins are required from November to March
2019 Lemon and Lime facts Export • Australia exported 3,427 tonnes of lemons and limes Volume in 2023 • 98 % was exported from March to October 119,000 tonnes ……!!! Import • Australia imported 3,821 tonnes of lemons and limes • 99 % was imported from November to February Australia has enough volume not to import lemons and limes!
Summary • On the increase • National hectares, from all regions • Varieties that are dramatically increasing in volume • Mid season navels • Afourers & Murcotts • Lemons & limes • Australia needs to import a small quantity of oranges and mandarins during the months where there is no domestic supply. • Australia has enough lemons and limes not to import. • Please keep updating your tree census data
Thank you
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