2019 – BFG Q1 Webinar “The Rebound”
Q1 2018 – Rebounding Market Performance Source: Bloomberg
Q4 2018 vs. Q1 2019- A Sharp Return Trip Source: Bloomberg
2018 vs 2019 – From Stop to Go Source: FinViz.com
Market Performance Recap 4 th QTR 18 1 st - 3 rd YTD 2017 Stock Markets QTR 18 Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 13.65% -13.80% 7.71% 21.83% Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 14.57% -19.10% 3.58% 14.65% International Developed Equity Index 3 10.15% -12.40% 1.35% 25.03% International Emerging Market Equity Index 4 9.90% -7.34% -1.09% 37.28% 4 th QTR 3 rd QTR Bond & Commodity Markets YTD 2017 U.S. Bonds Index 5 2.94% 1.73% 0.02% 3.54% Commodity Index 6 6.32% -9.41% -2.02% 1.70% 1 S&P 500 Index, 2 Russell 2000 Index, 3 MSCI EAFE Index, 4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 5 Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, 6 Bloomberg Commodity Index
BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions Overweights Underweight U.S. Equities International Equities Technology High Volatility Financials Healthcare Dividend Stocks
The Inversion
All Eyes on the Fed
Last Year vs. This Year *Source: YCharts 3/28/19
Predictive Powers – Inversion 10 Weeks Plus Plus
Higher Yields are GOOD for Bonds
Beware the Hunt for Yield
Next Move for the Fed?
Economic Outlook
Recession and Recovery
Auto Purchases At Low Levels
New Home Construction Below Trend
Mortgage Rates Trending Down
Consumer Spending Still Growing at 2%
Manufacturing Continues to Grow
GDP Growth Returns to 2% Range
Stable Inflation
Consumer Confidence Remains Elevated
Corporate Tax Cuts Boosted Earnings
Market Valuations Assume Continued Earnings Growth
Convergence of Wages and Unemployment Rate Source: Charles Schwab, Department of Labor, FactSet, as of March 31, 2019. Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers.
Possible Effects of Trade War
Low Exports Limits Impact on U.S. Economy
History of Global Recessions
Closing Thoughts
How to Make Money in Stocks
Importance of Diversification
Last Minute Tax Tips Contributions can be made to IRAs for 2018 until 4/15/19 • – Limit: $5,500 or $6,500 if age 50+ Limits going up in 2019 • – 401(k): $18,500 in 2018 to $19,000 in 2019 • For those 50+, an additional $6,000 can be contributed IRA: $5,500 in 2018 to $6,000 in 2019 – • 50+ catch-up = $1,000 – SIMPLE IRA: $12,500 in 2018 to $13,000 in 2019 • 50+ catch-up = $3,000 – Estate Taxes: Lifetime Exclusion from $11.18MM in 2018 to $11.4MM in 2019 • Annual Gift Exclusion remains unchanged at $15,000 per person Consider a back-door Roth IRA if income too high •
Disclosure Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing , if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
Q & A Follow-up Questions please contact us at: Office Phone: 518-720-3333 Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.com
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