2018 integrated resource plan
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2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 Commission Presentation August 9, 2016 Presentation Outline 2 What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)? Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP Preview 2018 IRP Information 2018


  1. 2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 Commission Presentation August 9, 2016

  2. Presentation Outline 2  What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)?  Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP  Preview 2018 IRP Information  2018 IRP Considerations  Summary

  3. 3 What is an IRP?

  4. What is an IRP? 4  Washington State RCW 19.280 mandate  10 year strategy to meet energy, capacity, and renewables  Evaluates generation resources, conservation and Renewable Energy Credits (REC)  Provides strategies for reliable, low cost electricity at reasonable risk  Creates action plan over two to four years

  5. IRP Inputs/ Modeling 5

  6. 6 Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP

  7. Key Takeaways From 2016 IRP 7  District long on resources with seasonal capacity deficit  District relying on market  Energy needs  Capacity needs  Renewable Energy Credits (REC) needs  Regional summer capacity constraints growing post 2019  PNUCC Northwest Regional Forecast  Power Council Resources Adequacy Studies  BPA White Book (2015 Pacific NW Loads & Resources Study)  Regional uncertainty of future legislation

  8. 8 Preview 2018 IRP Information

  9. 2018 IRP Project Charter 9

  10. 2018 Assumptions & Modeling 10 Load Growth Assumption Carbon Assumption Low Natural Gas Price Modeling Stochastic Modeling

  11. Load/Resource Balance – DRAFT Annual – Critical Water 11 300 Renewables 275 250 Frederickson 225 Market 200 175 Slice aMW 150 125 100 75 Block 50 25 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Block Critical Slice Renewables Market Frederickson Resource Requirement* * Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses

  12. Load/Resource Balance – DRAFT Annual – Average Water 12 300 Average Water 275 Renewables Slice Adder Frederickson 250 225 200 175 Slice aMW 150 125 100 75 Block 50 25 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Block Critical Slice Average Slice Adder Renewables Frederickson Resource Requirement* * Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses

  13. 2018 Monthly Forecasted Loads Block and Critical/Average Slice over time 13 Average Slice Rely on Frederickson 350 needed to serve Slice surplus & Market to meet load sold to market load 300 250 200 aMW 150 100 50 - January February March April May June July August September October November December Block Critical Slice Average Slice Renewables Frederickson 2018 Resource Requirement Block/Slice Generation observed over the last 3 years Frederickson available as energy call option through August 2022

  14. Example of Hourly Market Purchases How hourly loads are met on a extreme hot summer day 14 Load/Resource Balance (2015 Peak Day) 450 Temperature 400 Observed 1 : 105 ° F 350 300 250 MW 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Ending Block To Load Slice To Load Nine Canyon Wind - To Load White Creek - To Load Packwood - To Load Fredrickson - To Load District Market Purchases Actual Load 1 – As observed by the Hanford Meteorological Station

  15. Capacity Deficits Without Frederickson With Frederickson 15

  16. 16 2018 IRP Considerations

  17. 2018 IRP Considerations 17  Energy & Capacity Uncertainties  Resource Adequacy Studies (PNUCC, NWPCC & BPA)  Market availability? Who and when will build?  Frederickson CT contract retires in 2022  Legislation Uncertainty  EIA requirements  Carbon Policy  Customer Preferences Changing?  Customer Green Rate options  BPA Post 2028

  18. Summary 18  Key Draft Takeaways  Regional seasonal capacity constraints growing  Winter constrained  Summer constraints growing  District continues to be annually long on resources  Critical water- short after 2022  Frederickson expires in 2022  Average water- long thru 2028  District seasonal deficits continue to be met by RMC hedging  2018 Considerations/Uncertainties  Market, Legislation, Customer Preference, BPA 2028  Commission updates throughout summer  Adopt 2018 IRP by August 28th

  19. Questions 19

  20. What is an IRP? 40  Washington State RCW 19.280 mandates all electric utilities with more than 25,000 customers to develop an IRP  A strategy for meeting energy needs, capacity demand, and Washington State Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) obligations over a 10 year planning horizon  Provides framework for evaluating wide array of supply resources, conservation and Renewable Energy Credits (REC)  Provides guidance towards strategies that will provide reliable, low cost electricity at reasonable level of risk  Creates an action plan identifying the steps to be taken during the next two to four years to implement the plan

  21. 2018 IRP Considerations 45  Market purchases availabile?  Energy/Capacity/REC’s  Resource Adequacy/LOLP improving ? (PNUCC & NWPCC)  5 years out inadequate but conservative modeling…  Not including all available California imports  Not in including IRPs planned DR programs  Frederickson CT contract retires in 2022  Explore long term PPAs (market purchase short or long term, or build resource)

  22. Summary 46  Integrated Resource Plan Required every 2 years  Key Takeaways from 2016  Rely on market for Energy, Capacity, RECs  Market available through 2019  2018 Assumptions and Modeling  Market availability appears extended to 2023  Load reduction paper mills & Alcoa  Conservation & gas lowering load growth  Further if include all California available imports  Commission updates throughout summer  Adopt 2018 IRP by August 28th

  23. Public Utility District No. 1 of Benton County Final Audit Communication with Those Charged with Governance April 10, 2018

  24. AGENDA 4 Questions and Answers on the Audit Process Question 1 – What does an audit of the District entail? Question 2 – Are the financial statements a fair representation of transactions and ending balances for the year? 2 Question 3 – Did the District comply with applicable laws? Question 4 – What procedures were performed to identify fraud?

  25. Question #1 – What does an audit of the District entail? • Inspection of source documents Independent • Verification with third parties verification of transactions • Analytical review and inquiry procedures and balances • Perform substantive test procedures Evaluation of • Review key controls in all significant account the cycles effectiveness • Testing for operational effectiveness 3 of internal • Reporting of control weaknesses controls Testing compliance • Tests in accordance with Governmental with Federal Auditing Standards and State laws

  26. Question #1 – What does an audit of the District entail? • Balances and transactions verified against audited amounts and documentation Technical • Financial statements meet all applicable GAAP, review of the financial State and legal requirements statements • Supplementary information presented accurately 4 • Daily and weekly updates with Finance staff Reporting of audit results • Reporting to Board of Directors

  27. Question #2 – Are the financial statements accurate? • Perform risk assessment to identify significant risk Moss Adams areas Audit • Perform substantive test procedures Procedures • Perform technical review of financial statements • Unmodified (clean) opinion provided to the District for its financial statements. Results 5 • Financial statements are presented fairly in accordance with US GAAP. • Issued our communication to those charged with Additional Audit governance to discuss any audit adjustments noted Comments during the process

  28. Audit Adjustments Audit Adjustments Amount Slice True up reclassification $533,000 Passed Adjustments Amounts None noted N/A 6

  29. Question #3 – Did the District comply with applicable laws and regulations? • Perform risk assessment to identify significant Moss Adams compliance risk areas Audit • Perform compliance testing over several areas Procedures including contracting Results • No compliance issues noted 7 • Management is aware of the compliance Additional Audit requirements that are subject to our audit procedures Comments and monitor compliance throughout the year.

  30. Question #4 – What procedures were performed to identify fraud? • Evaluation of key controls for all significant balances and transaction cycles Moss Adams • Brainstorm session to identify fraud risk areas Audit Procedures • Interview individuals throughout the District • Perform ‘surprise’ procedures • Controls found to be effective Results 8 • No instances of fraud were identified throughout the audit Additional • Overall, management is able to design and implement Audit controls that are appropriate and help protect the District’s resources. Comments

  31. Items to Note NISC Conversion • Testing approach • District IT involvement No internal control issues identified. Best practice recommendations provided to management. 9

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