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2018 Economic Forum C ALHOUN C OUNTY C HAMBER OF C OMMERCE AND V - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2018 Economic Forum C ALHOUN C OUNTY C HAMBER OF C OMMERCE AND V ISITORS C ENTER Information provided by School of Business and Industry THANK YOU to our SPONSORS Calhoun County Economy Forum National Update (Slides 3-15) Alabama

  1. Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average for U.S. South Region 2007-2017 in Thousands 1400 1286 1204 1154 1201 1200 In Thousands 1067 1027 961 1000 882 795 743 800 711 600 400 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 35

  2. Gross Revenue Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions * $10.50 $10.31 +4.16% from FY 15-16 $9.90 $10.00 $9.78 In $ Billions $9.40 $9.50 $9.28 $8.93 $9.00 $8.50 $8.00 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 *Record High for Alabama Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 36

  3. Individual Income Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions $4.40 $4.21 $4.20 +3.31% from 2016 $4.07 In $ Billions $3.93 $4.00 $3.75 $3.75 $3.80 $3.58 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 37

  4. Sales Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions $2.40 $2.28 $2.30 +1.83% from FY 15-16 $2.24 In $ Billions $2.20 $2.15 $2.08 $2.10 $2.03 $1.99 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 38

  5. Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions FYTD 16-17 vs FYTD 17-18 FYTD FYTD % Change In $ Millions 16-17 17-18 Individual $1,193 $1,293 +8.32% Income Tax $776 $780 +3.01% Sales Tax $3,461 $3,619 +4.57% Total Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jan 39

  6. Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions Jan 2017 vs Jan 2018 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 % Change In $ Millions Individual $265.99 $305.93 +15.02% Income Tax $205.30 $211.56 +3.05% Sales Tax $942.68 $992.19 +5.25% Total Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 40

  7. Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program* State of Alabama Total Collections by Fiscal Quarter FY16Q1-FY2017Q4 $20 $16.82 $16.71 $15.04 $15 In $ Billions $52.4 Millions FY 2017 $10 $7.24 $5 $2.08 $1.81 $0.47 $0.01 $0 FY16Q1 FY16Q2 FY16Q3 FY16Q4 FY17Q1 FY17Q2 FY17Q3 FY17Q4 *State capturing online sales as use tax, Amazon joins 11/01/16 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 41

  8. Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program State of Alabama FY 2016-2017 Education $6,545,297 General Fund 12% $19,635,891 38% Municipalities $13,090,594 25% Counties $13,090,594 $52.4 Millions FY 2017 25% Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 42

  9. Housing Statistics State of AL 2016 vs 2017 % Change 2016 2017 Median Price $141,442 $148,913 +5.3% Avg Days on 142 130 -8.5% Market Total Homes 53,759 57,569 +7.1% Sold Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 43

  10. CULVERHOUSE College of Commerce Alabama Business Confidence Index • State Survey – 4 th Quarter 2017 • Approximately 164 respondents • Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.cba.ua.edu 44

  11. Economic Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017 60% 47.3% 42.4% % of Respondents 45% 30% 15% 7.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0% Much Worse Worse Remain the Better Much Better Same Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 45

  12. Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17 % Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -4.72% % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +12.0% 68 65.2 62.7 Index Value 61.6 62 58.7 55.1 56 53.0 52.6 52.4 50 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 46

  13. Hiring Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017 60% 53.3% % of Respondents 45% 36.4% 30% 15% 5.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 47

  14. Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17 % Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -2.50% 60.7 % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +10.6% 61 58.9 Index Value 57.6 57.4 57 54.9 53.9 53 51.9 49.9 49 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 48

  15. Sales Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017 60% 47.3% % of Respondents 42.4% 45% 30% 15% 7.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 49

  16. Sales Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17 % Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -6.0% 67.2 68 % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +7.1% 63.4 Index Value 64 62.6 60 58.8 57.9 55.1 54.9 56 54.3 52 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 50

  17. Capital Expenditures Outlook Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017 60% 49.7% % of Respondents 45% 39.2% 30% 15% 5.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 51

  18. Capital Expenditures Outlook Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17 61.9 % Change Q3 17 - Q4 17 -4.0% 62 % Change Q4 16 - Q4 17 +10.8% 59.8 58.5 Index Value 57.4 58 55.1 54 53.0 52.8 52.0 50 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 52

  19. State of Alabama Summary • Population Census Up, High Inbound State (57%) • State GDP Up (2016 2.6%, 2017 estimate June 18) • Labor Force Flat to Up Slightly (+4,000 2017, Trending Down) • Employment Up (+27,433 2017) • Unemployment Rate Down (3.5% Dec) • Housing Up (+7.1% Homes Sold 2016 vs 2017) • State Tax Revenues Exceed $10 Billion 1 st Time ($10.31 B) 53

  20. Calhoun County Economy 54

  21. Calhoun County Economy • Membership Survey (56-78) • Employment (81-90) • County Tax Collections (94-96) • Tourism & Housing (97-101) • Municipal Tax Collections (102-113) • Economic Development Council (115-124) 55

  22. Membership Survey of Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce 2018 • Ten years of data from Membership • Results for seven questions • First chart last years results • Second chart this years results • Third chart results from last 10 years • Index value = (sum of item values)x(response%)/(#options) 56

  23. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook Last Year (Jan 2017) 50% 46% Jan 2017 40% Index .82 28% 30% 22% 20% 11% 10% 0% 0% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better 57 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  24. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook This Year (Jan 2018) 60% 49% 50% Jan 2018 Index .79 40% 30% 24% 24% 20% 10% 1% 1% 0% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better 58 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  25. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook 2009-2018 .90 .84 .83 .82 .82 .79 .77 .77 .78 .74 Index Value .65 .58 .56 .53 .40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 59 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  26. Q#2: Employment Outlook Last Year (Jan 2017) 50% 45% 41% 40% Jan 2017 Index .69 30% 20% 7% 10% 6% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Cutback # Cutback # Increase # Increase # Emp Emp Emp Emp 60 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  27. Q#2: Employment Outlook This Year (Jan 2018) 70% 58% 60% Jan 2018 50% Index .67 38% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3% 1% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Cutback # Cutback # Increase # Increase # Emp Emp Emp Emp 61 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  28. Q#2: Employment Outlook 2009-2018 .80 .75 .74 .73 .72 .71 .70 .69 Index Value .70 .67 .65 .63 .60 .50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 62 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  29. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Jan 2017) 70% 64% 60% Jan 2017 50% Index .73 Remain same 75 40% 28% 30% 20% 5% 10% 3% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 63 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  30. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Jan 2018) 70% 63% 60% Jan 2018 50% Index .73 36% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 64 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  31. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation 2009-2018 .90 .82 .80 .80 Index Value .74 .73 .73 .73 .70 .70 .65 .61 .61 .60 .50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 65 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  32. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services Last Year (Jan 2017) 60% 55% Jan 2017 Index .76 45% 26% 30% 14% 15% 5% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 66 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  33. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services This Year (Jan 2018) 60% Jan 2018 44% Index .76 45% 34% 30% 20% 15% 1% 1% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 67 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  34. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services 2009-2018 .90 .83 .83 .80 .78 .77 .75 .76 .76 .76 .75 Index Value .60 .55 .45 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 68 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  35. Q#5: New Product Offerings Last Year (Jan 2017) 50% 43% Jan 2017 41% 40% Index .74 Remain same 75 30% 20% 15% 10% 2% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 69 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  36. Q#5: New Product Offerings This Year (Jan 2018) 60% Jan 2018 48% 50% 42% Index .71 40% Remain same 75 30% 20% 8% 10% 1% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 70 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  37. Q#5: New Product Offerings 2009-2018 .90 .81 .80 .76 .78 .74 .71 .71 .71 .69 Index Value .69 .65 .65 .53 .40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 71 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  38. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets Last Year (Jan 2017) 90% 81% Jan 2017 75% Index .63 60% Remain same 75 45% 30% 16% 15% 2% 1% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 72 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  39. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets This Year (Jan 2018) 83% 90% Jan 2018 75% Index .63 60% Remain same 75 45% 30% 16% 15% 1% 0% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 73 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  40. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets 2009-2018 .80 .69 .68 .70 .64 Index Value .63 .60 .56 .52 .48 .48 .50 .47 .41 .40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 74 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  41. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising Last Year (Jan 2017) 60% 48% 50% Jan 2017 36% 40% Remain same 75 Index .68 30% 20% 7% 7% 10% 1% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 75 Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  42. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising This Year (Jan 2018) 50% 46% 44% 40% Jan 2018 Remain same 75 Index .70 30% 20% 10% 6% 3% 1% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 76 Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  43. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising 2009-2018 .80 .70 .69 .68 .68 .70 .64 Index Value .62 .61 .58 .57 .60 .54 .50 .40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 77 Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  44. Membership Survey: Largest Response Category by % 2018 • Overall Outlook – Slightly Better 49% • Number of Employees – No Change 58% • Employee Pay – Slight Increase 63% • Demand for Products – Slightly Better 44% • New Products – No Change 48% • Number of Outlets – No Change 83% • Advertising Spending – No Change 46% 78

  45. Population Trends Calhoun County 2005-2016 in Thousands 120 119 2015 - 115,620 118 117 117 118 2016 - 114,611 In Thousands 116 116 116 115 114 113 114 113 113 112 112 110 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 79

  46. GDP % Change from Preceding Year Calhoun County & State of Alabama 2007 - 2016 7.1% 8% 6% 3.9% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2% 3.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0% 1.6% -2.5% 1.1% 0.7% -2% -1.3% -1.1% Calhoun -4% -3.4% -3.5% Alabama -6% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $ 80

  47. Labor Force Calhoun County 2008-2017 in Thousands 55 53 -1.73% 2016-2017 51.9 In Thousands 51 49.1 49.0 49 48.0 47.5 46.7 46.4 47 46.3 46.2 45.5 45 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 81

  48. Labor Force Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands 46.0 -403 for 12 45.8 45.8 Months 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.8 In Thousands 45.6 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.3 45.2 45.3 45.1 45.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 82

  49. Employment for Calhoun County 2008-2017 in Thousands 52 50.3 -.46% 2016-2017 50 In Thousands 47.4 46.5 47 46.1 45.4 43.9 45 43.7 43.3 43.1 43.1 42 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 83

  50. Employment Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands +1291 for 12 Months 44.0 43.7 43.7 43.5 43.4 43.3 43.4 43.5 43.2 43.1 In Thousands 43.1 43.0 43.0 42.7 42.5 42.2 42.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 84

  51. Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2008-2017 11% 9.9% 9.8% 9.2% % Unemployed 9% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 7% 5.2% 5.1% 5% 3% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 85

  52. Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama 2017 7.5% 8% Calhoun 6.7% AL 6.0% % Unemployed 5.9% 5.5% 6.8% 6% 5.0% 4.8% 6.1% 4.8% 5.3% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 5.2% 4.9% 4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% Not Seasonally Adjusted 2% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 86

  53. 6.6% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2016 State Ave – 5.9% Unemployment Rate 6.1% and Below 6.2% - 7.4% 7.5% and Above Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Department of Labor 87

  54. 3.9% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2017 State Ave – 3.5% Unemployment Rate 6.5% and Below 6.6% - 7.9% 8.0% and Above Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Department of Labor 88

  55. Employment State Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Dec 17 18% 20% 14% 10% 10% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -3% -4% -3% -10% -8% -20% -18% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 89

  56. Employment % Change AL & AL MSAs Dec 16- Dec 17 5% 4.0% 3.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 3% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 90

  57. Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector Calhoun County & State of Alabama 2009-2017 $24 $19.68 $19.86 $20.14 $20.21 $20.18 $20.73 $21.02 $21.85 $22.56 $21 76% 95% $18 $18.59 $18.23 $18.16 $17.56 $17.05 $17.48 $16.34 $15 $16.22 $15.31 Alabama Calhoun $12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 91

  58. Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector Calhoun County & State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2017 $25 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.0 22.8 23.0 $22 76% State Average Alabama Calhoun $19 17.2 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 16.7 17.2 17.0 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.4 $16 $13 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 92

  59. Per Capita Personal Income Calhoun County & State Of Alabama 2007 – 2016 in $ Thousands $38.2 $38.9 $40 $32.6 $33.4 $32.7 $33.7 $34.7 $35.5 $35.8 $36.9 88% Thousands $35 $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.5 $31.7 $31.4 $32.4 $33.5 $34.4 92% $30 Calhoun Alabama $25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 93

  60. State Sales Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17 in $ Millions $33 $31.02 $30.50 $31.34 +2.72% Fiscal Yr $31.19 $29.12 $30 In $ Millions $28.00 $28 $25.24 $25 $23 $21.40 $20 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 94

  61. State Use Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17 in $ Millions $1.5 +50.6% Fiscal Yr $1.27 In $ Millions $1.3 $1.19 $1.12 $1.08 $1.10 $1.08 $1.1 $0.93 $0.84 $0.9 $0.7 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 95

  62. Simplified Sellers Use Tax Allocations Calhoun County FY 2016-2017 Ohatchee Calhoun $5,301 County Weaver 1% $324,741 $13,766 52% 2% Piedmont $624,210 FY 16-17 $22,104 4% Jacksonville $56,859 Anniston Oxford 9% $96,735 $104,702 17% 15% Source: AL Dept of Revenue 96

  63. State Lodging Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY09-10 – FY16-17 in $ Thousands $1,200 $1,141.0 $1,100 In $ Thousands +11.56% Fiscal Yr $1,022.8 $1,000 $883.6 $915.1 $900 $847.1 $824.5 $771.6 $778.4 $800 $700 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 97

  64. Tourism Economic Impact State of Alabama 2016 • Est over 25.8 Million visitors 2016 • Spending $13.8 Billion in 2016 • Represent 6.8% of State GDP • Est 179,644 jobs (9.1% of non agricultural) • Generated $836 Million State/Local Tax Revenues 98 Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2016

  65. Tourism Expenditures in AL 2006-2016 in $ Billions $14 $13.4 Up Avg of 5.81%/Yr Last 10 yrs $12.7 $11.8 $12 $10.2 $10.7 $11.0 Billions $9.6 $10 $9.3 $9.3 $9.1 $8.5 $8 $6 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 99 Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

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