2018 – BFG Q3 Webinar “Return of Volatility”
3rd Quarter Market Recap
3 rd Quarter Returns 3 rd QTR Stock Markets YTD 2017 Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 7.71% 10.56% 21.83% Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 3.58% 11.51% 14.65% International Developed Equity Index 3 1.35% -1.43% 25.03% International Emerging Market Equity Index 4 -1.09% -7.68% 37.28% 3 rd QTR YTD 2017 Bond & Commodity Markets U.S. Bonds Index 5 0.02% -1.60% 3.54% Commodity Index 6 -2.02% -2.03% 1.70% 1 S&P 500 Index, 2 Russell 2000 Index, 3 MSCI EAFE Index, 4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 5 Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, 6 Bloomberg Commodity Index
BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions Overweights Underweight Equities Bonds U.S. Equities International Equities Technology Utilities Financials Telecom Healthcare & Biotech Consumer Staples Online Retailers Value Small Caps Growth
What about Bonds?
10-Year Treasury Note vs. Fed Reserve Rate 10-Year Treasury Yield - Fed Funds Rate -
Impact of rising interest rates Source: A Wealth of Common Sense
Fixed Income Portfolio Adjustments
Higher Yields are GOOD for Bonds
The Role of Fixed Income
Recessionary Fears
2 nd Longest Recovery Period
Households Aren’t Over -Leveraged
Wealth Effect on Consumer Spending
Yield Curve still Positive
Chances of Recession Currently Low
Leading Indicators Still Strong
Unemployment & Inflation Indicator
Keep Big Picture in Mind Historically recessions last less than 2-years
Where do we go From Here
Not Time to Abandon Stocks
Previous Aug / Sept Market Highs Source: Bloomberg; @SentimenTrader
Election Cycle Impact
Why Diversification Works
Disclosure Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing , if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
Q & A Follow-up Questions please contact us at: Office Phone: 518-720-3333 Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.com
Questions from the Audience • The National debt keeps growing in leaps and bounds. Is there a benchmark for how large it has to go before it affects markets? And what happens then? • How will the team adjust portfolios to a lower growth, higher rate environment? • Have we invested in cannabis stocks? • At what level interest rate on the 10-Year treasury would we consider a reallocation from equities to bonds?
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