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2017 Economic Forum CALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2017 Economic Forum CALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS CENTER Information provided by School of Business and Industry THANK YOU to our SPONSORS Calhoun County Economy Forum National Update (Slides 3-15) State of Alabama

  1. Hiring Outlook for Alabama Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016 60% 43.2% 45% % of Respondents 39.6% 30% 15% 10.4% 3.6% 3.1% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 37

  2. Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17 % Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +10.9% 59 % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +6.8% 57.6 Index Value 57.0 54.9 54.2 53.9 54 51.9 51.7 49.9 49 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 38

  3. Sales Outlook for Alabama Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016 60% 55.2% 45% % of Respondents 30% 20.8% 13.0% 15% 8.3% 2.6% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 39

  4. Sales Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17 67 % Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +15.4% 63.4 % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +15.1% Index Value 62 60.5 57.9 57.1 57 55.1 54.9 54.3 54.0 52 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 40

  5. Capital Expenditures Outlook Q1 2017 compared to Q4 2016 60% 41.1% 45% % of Respondents 39.1% 30% 13.5% 15% 4.7% 1.6% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 41

  6. Capital Expenditures Outlook Alabama Q2 15 – Q1 17 60 58.5 % Change Q4 16 - Q1 17 +12.5% % Change Q1 16 - Q1 17 +10.8% Index Value 55.2 55.1 55 53.6 53.0 52.8 52.0 51.5 50 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 42

  7. State of Alabama Summary • Population Census Up • State GDP Up (2015 2.17%, 2016 est June 17) • Labor Force Up (+48,505 2016) • Employment Up (+35,314 2016) • Unemployment Rate Down (5.9% Dec) • Housing Up (+7.8% Homes Sold 2015-2016) • 1 st Qtr State Confidence Index (Up Sharply) 43

  8. Calhoun County Economy 44

  9. Calhoun County Economy • Membership Survey (45-68) • Employment (69-87) • County and Municipal Tax Collections (88-101) • Tourism & Housing (102-108) • Economic Development Center (109-114) 45

  10. Membership Survey of Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce 2016 • Ten years of data from Membership • Results for seven questions • First chart shows last years results • Second chart shows this years results • Third chart shows average for 10 years • Index value = sum of item values multiplied by response % / # options 46

  11. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook Last Year (Feb 2016) 50% 46% Feb 2016 40% Index .74 32% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% Worse About Same Better 47 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  12. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook This Year (Feb 2017) 50% 46% Feb 2017 40% Index .82 28% 30% 22% 20% 11% 10% 0% 0% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better 48 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  13. Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook 2008-2017 .90 .87 .84 .82 .82 .77 .77 .76 .78 .74 Index Value .65 .58 .56 .53 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 49 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  14. Q#2: Employment Outlook Last Year (Feb 2016) 70% 59% 60% Feb 2016 50% Index .71 40% 26% 30% 20% 14% 10% 0% Cutback # Emp Remain Same Expand # Emp 50 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  15. Q#2: Employment Outlook This Year (Feb 2017) 50% 45% 41% 40% Feb 2016 Index .69 30% 20% 7% 10% 6% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Cutback # Cutback # Increase # Increase # Emp Emp Emp Emp 51 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  16. Q#2: Employment Outlook 2008-2017 .90 .76 .76 .75 .78 .74 .72 .71 Index Value .70 .69 .65 .63 .65 .53 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 52 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  17. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation Last Year (Feb 2016) 60% 51% 48% 45% Feb 2016 Rem ain same 75 Index .82 30% 15% 1% 0% Decrease Leave Unchanged Increase 53 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  18. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Feb 2016) 70% 64% 60% Feb 2016 50% Index .73 Rem ain same 75 40% 28% 30% 20% 5% 10% 3% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 54 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  19. Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation 2008-2017 .90 .83 .83 .82 .78 .73 .74 .73 .70 Index Value .65 .65 .61 .61 .53 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 55 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  20. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services Last Year (Feb 2016) 50% 44% 41% Feb 2016 40% Index .76 30% Rem ain same 75 20% 15% 10% 0% Decrease Unchanged Increase 56 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  21. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services This Year (Feb 2017) 60% 55% Feb 2017 Index .76 45% Rem ain same 75 26% 30% 14% 15% 5% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 57 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  22. Q#4: Demand for Products/Services 2008-2017 .88 .90 .81 .80 .78 .77 .76 .76 .75 .78 .70 Index Value .65 .55 .53 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 58 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  23. Q#5: New Product Offerings Last Year (Feb 2016) 60% Feb 2016 48% 47% 50% Index .81 40% Rem ain same 75 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% Decrease Unchanged Increase 59 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  24. Q#5: New Product Offerings This Year (Feb 2017) 50% 43% Feb 2017 41% 40% Index .74 30% Rem ain same 75 20% 15% 10% 2% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 60 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  25. Q#5: New Product Offerings 2008-2017 .90 .82 .81 .76 .74 .78 .74 .71 .71 .69 Index Value .69 .65 .65 .53 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 61 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  26. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets Last Year (Feb 2016) 90% 77% Feb 2016 75% Index .69 60% Rem ain same 75 45% 30% 15% 15% 8% 0% Decrease Unchanged Increase 62 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  27. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets This Year (Feb 2017) 90% 81% Feb 2017 75% Index .63 60% Rem ain same 75 45% 30% 16% 15% 2% 1% 0% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 63 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  28. Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets 2008-2017 .80 .70 .69 .70 .64 Index Value .60 .56 .52 .51 .48 .48 .50 .47 .41 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 64 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  29. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising Last Year (Feb 2016) 70% 60% 60% Feb 2016 50% Index .69 Rem ain same 75 40% 30% 24% 16% 20% 10% 0% Cutback # Emp Remain Same Expand # Emp 65 Source: 2015 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  30. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising This Year (Feb 2017) 60% 48% 50% Feb 2017 36% 40% Index .68 Rem ain same 75 30% 20% 7% 7% 10% 1% 0% Major Slight Remain Same Slight Major Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 66 Source: 2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  31. Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising 2008-2017 .80 .73 .69 .68 .68 .70 .64 Index Value .62 .61 .57 .58 .60 .54 .50 .40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 67 Source: 2007-2016 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

  32. Membership Survey: Largest Response Category by % 2016 • Overall Outlook– Slightly Better 46% • Number of Employees – No Change 45% • Employee Pay – Slight Increase 64% • Demand for Products – Slightly Better 55% • New Products – No Change 43% • Number of Outlets – No Change 81% • Advertising Spending – No Change 48% 68

  33. Population Trends Calhoun County 2004-2015 in Thousands 120 2014 - 115,916 119 118 117 117 118 2015 – 115,620 116 In Thousands 116 115 114 113 114 113 113 112 112 112 110 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 69

  34. GDP % Change from Preceding Year for Calhoun County Vs AL 2006 - 2015 6.9% 8% 6% 4.6% 4.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 4% 2.3% 2.3% 4.5% 2% 3.2% 2.9% -2.5% 1.8% 0% 1.2% 2.0% -2% -0.6% -1.6% -2.6% Calhoun -4% AL -3.6% -6% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $ 70

  35. Labor Force Calhoun County 2007- 2016 in Thousands 55 53.5 53 -.22% 2015-2016 51.9 In Thousands 51 49.1 49.0 49 48.0 47.5 46.7 46.4 47 46.3 46.2 45 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 71

  36. Labor Force Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2016 in Thousands +467 for 12 47.0 46.8 46.7 Months 46.6 In Thousands 46.2 46.4 46.5 46.3 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.0 46.0 45.8 45.5 45.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 72

  37. Employment for Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 52 51.1 50.3 .5% 2015-2016 50 In Thousands 47.4 46.5 47 46.1 45.4 43.9 45 43.7 43.3 43.1 42 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 73

  38. Employment Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2016 in Thousands +626 for 12 Months 44.0 43.7 43.7 43.5 43.3 43.5 43.3 43.3 43.3 43.2 43.2 In Thousands 42.9 43.0 43.0 42.6 42.5 42.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 74

  39. Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2007-2016 11% 9.9% 9.8% 9.2% % Unemployed 9% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 7% 5.1% 5% 3.5% 3% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 75

  40. Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2016 8% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% % Unemployed 7% 6.6% 7.2% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% Not Seasonally Adjusted 5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 76

  41. 6.5% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2015 State Ave – 5.9% Unemployment Rate 6.8% and Below 6.9% - 8.3% 8.4% and Above Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Department of Labor 77

  42. 6.6% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2016 State Ave – 5.9% Unemployment Rate 6.1% and Below 6.2% - 7.4% 7.5% and Above Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Department of Labor 78

  43. Employment State Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Dec 16 20% 14% 12% 10% 5% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -5% -6% -10% -9% -5% -20% -19% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 79

  44. Employment % Change AL & AL MSAs Dec 15- Dec 16 5% 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 80

  45. Federal Employment for Calhoun County 2003-2015 in Thousands 6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 5 In Thousands 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 4 3.7 3 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 81

  46. Manufacturing Sector Employment Calhoun County 2003-2016 in Thousands 9 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 8 In Thousands 7 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.9 6 5 4 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 82

  47. Service Sector for Calhoun County 2003-2016 in Thousands 46 44 44 43 44 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 In Thousands 40 40 40 40 39 40 38 36 34 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 83

  48. Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week State of Alabama 2007-2016 37 36.6 Hours Worked per 36.1 36.0 36.0 36 35.6 35.5 35.5 Week 35.3 35.1 34.8 35 34 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 84

  49. Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week State of Alabama Jan - Dec 2016 36.0 Hours Worked per 35.9 36.0 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 Week 35.7 35.4 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 85

  50. Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for State of Alabama 2007 - 2016 $21.8 $22 $21.0 +3.8% 12 Months $20.7 $21 $ per Hour $20.1 $20.2 $20.2 $20 $19.4 $19.6 $19.7 $19.9 $19 $18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 86

  51. Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for State of Alabama Jan - Dec 2016 $23 $22.22 $21.97 $21.98 $21.90 $ per Hour $22 $21.86 $21.64 $21.90 $21.83 $21.80 $21.79 $22 $21.60 $21.43 +1.2% 12 Months $21 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 87

  52. State Sales Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions $33 $31.19 $31.02 $30.50 -1.66% Fiscal Yr In $ Millions $29.12 $30 $28.00 $28 $25.24 $25 $23 $21.40 $20 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 88

  53. State Use Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions $1.3 -24.6% Fiscal Yr $1.19 In $ Millions $1.2 $1.12 $1.10 $1.08 $1.08 $1.1 $1.0 $0.93 $0.9 $0.84 $0.8 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 89

  54. State Lodging Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY09-10 – FY15-16 in $ Thousands $1,100 $1,022.8 In $ Thousands +11.77% Fiscal Yr $1,000 $915.1 $883.6 $900 $847.1 $824.5 $771.6 $778.4 $800 $700 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 90

  55. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Anniston in $ Millions $24 $22.0 +6.81% 15-16 FY $22 In $ Millions $21.2 $20.8 $20.6 $20 $19.0 $17.5 $18 $17.3 $17.1 $16 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 91

  56. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax FYTD Oct15-Jan16 vs Oct16-Jan17 Anniston in $ Millions $8.0 $7.27 -19.2% FYTD 16-17 In $ Millions $7.0 $5.87 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 Oct15-Jan16 Oct16-Jan17 Source: City of Anniston 92

  57. Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Oxford in $ Millions $33 $30.7 $31 +8.09% 15-16 FY $28.4 In $ Millions $26.6 $28 $25.3 $25.5 $24.5 $26 $24.3 $22.6 $23 $21 $18 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 93

  58. Sales & Use Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Oxford in $ Millions $7.49 $7.5 +6.8% 2016 FYTD In $ Millions $7.01 $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 Oct-Dec15 Oct-Dec16 Source: City of Oxford 94

  59. Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY08-09 – FY15-16 Jacksonville in $ Millions $7.3 $7.5 $7.0 $7.0 3.82% 15-16 FY $6.8 $6.5 In $ Millions $6.5 $5.5 $5.3 $5.3 $5.5 $4.5 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: City of Jacksonville 95

  60. Sales & Use Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Jacksonville in $ Millions $2.00 +0.5% 2016 FYTD In $Millions $1.919 $1.909 $1.90 $1.80 Oct-Dec15 Oct-Dec16 Source: City of Jacksonville 96

  61. Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY08-09 - FY15-16 Ohatchee in $ Thousands $600 $571 -3.8% 15-16 FY $550 $549 In $ Thousands $545 $550 $534 $489 $500 $481 $444 $450 $400 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: City of Ohatchee 97

  62. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY15-16 Piedmont in $ Millions * $1.89 +8.1% 15-16 FY $1.9 * $1.8 $1.75 In $ Millions $1.7 $1.6 $1.46 $1.46 $1.45 $1.5 $1.37 $1.36 $1.4 $1.3 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: City of Piedmont *1% tax increase Jan 1, 2015 98

  63. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2015 vs 2016 Piedmont in $ Thousands -3.19% 2016 FYTD $500 $473 In $ Thousands $458 $450 $400 $350 Oct15-Dec15 Oct16-Dec16 Source: City of Piedmont 99

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Comptroller of the Currency Administrator of National Banks The Economic Outlook Community Development Forum Salt Lake City July 19, 2012 Ray Squitieri Economic and Policy Analysis, OCC Summary US economy Slow growth to persist, but

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