2017 Congressional Update Presented by: Donald R. Cravins, Jr SVP - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Congressional Update Presented by: Donald R. Cravins, Jr SVP for Policy/ED Washington Bureau dcravins@nul.org @dcravins

Congressional Leadership of the 115 th Congress 2

Senate Majority Leadership Senate Majority Leadership 6. Cory Gardner (R-CO) CO) 2. Jo John Cor ornyn (R-TX) Position: National Republican Position : Senate Majority Po 1. 1. Mi Mitch McC McConnell (R-KY) Y) Senatorial Committee Whip Position: Senate Majority Leader Chairman 3. Joh John Thu hune (R-S.D.) 5. 5. Roy Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) Position: Senate Republican Po Position: Senate Republican Conference Chairman Conference vice chairman 4. . Joh John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Position: Senate Republican Policy Po Committee Chairman 3

Senate Minority Leadership Senate Majority Leadership 4. De Debbie Sta Stabenow (D-MI) 3. Pat Patty Mu Murray (D-WA) Position: Chair of the Position: Assistant Democratic Policy and Democratic Leader 2. Dick ck Du Durbin (D-IL) Communications Committee Po Position : Senate 1. Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D -NY) Y) Democratic Whip Position: Senate Minority Leader 9 Chris Va Van Holl Hollen (D (D-MD) Position: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman 5. . El Elizabeth Wa Warr rren 6. Mar Mark Wa Warner er (D-VA) 7. . Amy Amy Klobuchar (D (D- 8. . Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (D (D-MA) Position: Vice Chair of the MN MN) Position : Chair of Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference Position: Chair of Outreach Democratic Conference Steering Committee 4

House Majority Leadership House Majority Leadership 2. Kevin McCa McCarth thy (CA-23) 23) 5. Luke Mes Messer r (IN-6) 6) Position : House Majority Po Position: Republican Policy 1. 1. Pa Paul Ry Ryan(WI-1) 1) Leader Committee Chairman Position: Speaker of the House 3. Ste 3. Steve Sc Scalise (LA-1 ) 6. . Steve Stivers (OH-15) Position: House Republican Po Position: National 4. . Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA WA- Whip Republican Congressional 5) Committee Chairman Position: Republican Conference Po Vice Chair 5

REPUBLICAN FACTIONS Opposing factions in the Republican Party threaten to impede its ability to form a majority in the House If Dems maintain unity, GOP can only lose 22 votes More conservative caucuses Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group Free reedom Caucu cus (~30 members) Vacancies • Farthest-right group of Republicans Majority line • Chair, Mark Meadows (R-NC11) Hou House Liberty Caucu cus (~35 members) • Libertarian wing of the Republican party • Chair, Justin Amash (R-MI03) Republican Study Committee (~170 members) Re • Strong conservatives, limited spending and traditional values • Chair, Mark Walker (R-NC06) Moderate caucuses Tue uesday Gro roup (~50 members) • Moderate fiscal conservatism and more socially liberal • Co-chairs, Charlie Dent (R-PA15), Elise Stefanik (R-NY21) • Tom MacArthur (R-NJ03) recently resigned as co- chair after the contentious AHCA vote Republicans 239 Re Republican Ma Main St Street Pa Partnership (65 representatives, 4 senators) • More centrist, attempts to form bipartisan initiatives Tuesday Group ~52 • Chair, Amory “Amo” Houghton (R -NY29, retired) Freedom Caucus ~30 Whip stats (four vacancies) Democrats 193 • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead • Vacancies 3 A majority requires 217 votes (if all members cast a ballot) Sources: National Journal Research, 2017. May 30, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

House Minority Leadership House Majority Leadership 1. Nancy cy Pe Pelosi (CA-12) Position: House Democratic Leader 2. Ste teny Hoy Hoyer (MD-5) 5) 3. Ja 3. James Clyburn (SC SC-6) Position : House Po Position: Assistant Po Democratic Whip Democratic Leader 4. Jos Joseph Cro rowley (NY-14) Po Position: House Democratic Caucus Chairman 7

Congressional Black Caucus Leadership Congressional Black Caucus Leadership 1. Cedric c Ri Rich chmond (LA-2) 2) 2. An Andre Carson (IN-7) 7) 3. Karen Bass (CA- 37) 37) Position: Chairman Po Position : Vice Chairman Position: Vice Chairman Po 4. Brenda Lawren rence ce (MI MI -14) 5. Gwen Mo Moore (WI WI-4) 4) Po Position: Secretary Po Position: Whip 8

HOUSE CAUCUSES Moderates in the House form a strong majority over each party’s farthest wings House makeup by caucus membership Hou House Re Republican Conference ce 239 Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group Freedom Caucus 30* Progressive Caucus Moderate Democrats Blue Dog Coalition Tuesday Group 50* Vacancies Republican Study Committee 170* Republican Main Street Partnership 65* Hou House De Democratic Caucus 193 Blue Dog Coalition 17 New Democrat Coalition 61 Progressive Caucus 70 Vaca Va cancies 3 50 17 106 159 Whip stats • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead • A majority requires 217 votes (if all 30 70 members cast a ballot) • If Republicans lose all Freedom Caucus votes, they require 7 centrist Democratic votes to form a majority *Estimated caucus size; rosters have not been finalized and published for the 115 th Congress. The House Freedom Caucus does not publish its member list. Sources: National Journal Research, 2017. June 5, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

2018 Congressional Elections Landscape 10

Presidential Approval Ratings President Trump’s Approval Ratings, Jan. 20th - present 60% 50% 45% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 40% 30% Gallup: June 5

Presidential Approval Ratings Gain or loss for president’s party in first midterm of presidency: Since the Civil War, P resident’s party has lost 1946 1982 1994 150 1954 2002 2010 seats in 36 of 39 midterms - 125 100 losing an average of 33 seats 75 50 63% Approve 25 61% Approve 0 2 0 SENATE SENATE HOUSE SENATE SENATE HOUSE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE HOUSE HOUSE SENATE -2 -8 -6 -8 -25 -11 -18 -26 -50 Since 1914, President’s party has lost Senate -54 -54 -63 -75 -100 seats in 20 out of 25 midterm elections -125 -150 33% Approve 42% Approve 48% Approve 45% Approve -175 Gallup

2016 Presidential Election Clinton: 232 EVs (States) Trump: 306 EVs (States) 12 4 NH 4 3 3 1 7 10 VT 3 Clinton beat Trump by nearly 7M votes in 4 29 10 3 MA 12 3 16 CA, MA & NY (65-35% margin). In the other 20 6 5 RI 4 6 11 18 20 6 47 states (plus DC), Trump received 4M 55 9 5 CT 7 13 10 6 8 more votes (winning 52% - 48%). NJ 15 15 11 7 11 5 6 9 DE 3 16 9 6 MD 10 3 38 8 DC 3 29 4

County Breakdown All Counties 100 Largest Counties 3500 100 88 86 88 3000 73 78 2420 2439 2536 71 70 75 8 th consecutive Presidential 2500 57 69 2600 2238 2000 Election within 10 points 1582 50 1587 1500 1526 31 1519 43 875 1000 30 25 29 693 468 27 22 500 674 583 12 14 12 0 0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Uncompetitive Counties Counties where presidential candidates won the two-party popular vote by more than 20 percentage points: Along the Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast, Democrats hold a 98-33 House Seat advantage over Republicans. In the other In 1992, 1,096 counties were decided by 40 states, Republicans hold 208 seats to single-digit margins. In 2016, only 303 Democrats’ 96 . counties had close margins. In these same 40 states, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 80 . Cook Political Report

Landslides Everywhere Share of U.S. voters living in counties where either major-party candidate won by a margin of: The number of “extreme landslide” counties – those in which one presidential candidate won by more than 50 percentage points – rose from 93 in 1992 to 1,196 in 2016 Cook Political Report

Competitive Seats Only 33 competitive House seats in 2016 – a greater than 80 percent drop

Single Party Representation The last time Congress had 15 states represented by only one political party in both chambers was 1957 Data provided by Smart Politics

Partisan Divide Districts split between Congressional representation and presidential preference: 111 th Congress: 2009 115 th Congress: 2017 First time in 100+ years that percentage of Republicans in 23 35 12 49 Clinton districts 34 split districts has been in single digits in 83 Democrats in Democrats in Trump districts McCain districts Republicans in consecutive elections Obama districts Only 1 Dem (Collin 405 405 352 352 Peterson) remains from a McCain dist.

Partisan Politics View the opposing party “very unfavorably” & as a “threat to the nation’s well being”: 41% of Dems view Republican policies as a 70% 70% threat. More than 1/2 of Dems (55%) say 58% 60% 60% 55% the Republican Party makes them “afraid.” 50% 50% 45% 40% 40% 43% 41% 38% 30% 30% 29% 45% of Republicans view Dem policies as a 20% 20% 21% 17% 16% threat. 58% of Republicans have a very 10% 10% 0% unfavorable impression of the Dem Party. 0% 1994 2004 2014 2016 1994 2004 2014 2016 Pew Research Center | 2016

Party Makeup of the 115 th Congress 21

Composition of 115 th Congress Senate Democrats Gained 46 2 Seats 52 Independents 2

Presidential/Senate Vote Every state with a 2016 Senate race voted for the same party in both the Senate and presidential contest – a first ever Daily Kos Elections