2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW August 21, 2019 INTRODUCTION Purpose - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW ► August 21, 2019

INTRODUCTION ► Purpose of this presentation is to build on the overall results presented by the PAs ► Provides additional information on: − Multi-year trends • New focus on multi-benefit plan: total energy savings, non- lighting savings, active demand, storage, etc. − Sector performance − End use data ► Puts 2016-2018 results in context of 2019-2021 Plan ► Tees up sector focused meetings in September and October www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 2 2

HIGH LEVEL OBSERVATIONS ► Overall, PAs achieved more savings at a lower cost than planned ► Residential Electric − Lighting accounted for a large portion of residential savings • “Deeper” measures must be focus of 2019-2021 plan ► Residential Gas − 2018 savings overachievement largely from insulation and wifi thermostats ► C&I Electric − Lighting in transition, but still and opportunity in 2019-2021 − Electric HVAC savings declined in 2016-2018; unclear from data whether trend is reversing ► C&I Gas − HVAC gas savings are increasing www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 3 3

ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS Portfolio Lifetime Electric Savings (MWh) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Preliminary Planned (No Large CHP Project) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 4 4

ELECTRIC CAPACITY SAVINGS Portfolio Electric Capacity Savings (kW) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Planned (Plus Active Demand Reduction) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 5 5

LIFETIME ELECTRIC COSTS TO ACHIEVE Lifetime Electric Costs to Achieve ($/kWh) $0.070 $0.060 $0.050 $0.040 $0.030 $0.020 $0.010 $0.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Evaluated Plan Plan (No Large CHP Project) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 6 6

GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings (Million Therms) 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned Preliminary www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 7 7

TOTAL BENEFITS (ELECTRIC AND GAS PROGRAMS) Total Benefits ($Millions) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Planned Actual www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 8 8

Sector Review and Analysis www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 9 9

Residential www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 10 10

RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector (MWh) 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Actual Residential Planned Residential 2,500,000 Actual Low-Income 2,000,000 Planned Low-Income 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 11 11

RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector (Million Therms) 250 200 150 Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income 100 Planned Low-Income 50 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 12 12

RESIDENTIAL SA VINGS BY END USE, ALL FUELS Residential Lifetime Savings by End Use, All Fuel (MMBtus) 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 Envelope 12,000,000 HVAC Lighting 10,000,000 Hot Water 8,000,000 Energy Star Homes Behavior 6,000,000 Process 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 13 13

LIGHTING MEASURES DOMINATE ELECTRIC SAVINGS IN 2016-18 Top 10 Res Electric Lifetime Savings Measures 2016-18 vs. 2019-21 MWh 9,000,000 In 2016-18 top 8,000,000 10 measures = 7,000,000 93% of lifetime savings 6,000,000 2016-18 5,000,000 2019-21 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - | www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | 14

OPPORTUNITIES IN DEEPER SAVINGS MEASURES MWh 450,000 Heat pump savings increase in new term, and 400,000 opportunities for other major 350,000 measures 300,000  2016-18  250,000 2019-21 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Behavior Circulator Insulation Smart Strip Refrigerator Heating (New Heat Pump Prog. Reports Pump (Electric) Recycling Construction) Thermostat Savings rank (Electric) 3/3 4/5 5/8 6/6 7/7 8/11 9/4 2016-18/2019-21 10/- www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 15 15

2018 RES GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS GOAL SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED Top 4 Overachieving Gas Measures in 2018 Wifi Thermostats Wifi Thermostats 24% over 2018 lifetime Insulation Insulation goal = 46 million Furnaces Furnaces more Therms Programmable Programmable Thermostats Thermostats www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 16 16

RESIDENTIAL BENEFITS Residential and Low Income Benefits (Electric and Gas Programs) $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 Water Benefits $2,000 Propane Benefits $ Millions Oil Benefits $1,500 Gas Benefits $1,000 Non Resource Benefits Electric Energy Benefits $500 $0 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) Residential Low Income www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 17 17

RESIDENTIAL COSTS Residential Spending by Cost Category (Electric and Gas Programs) 1,400 3% 3% 1,200 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 1,000 4% 17% 21% 16% Evaluation and Market Research 800 Marketing and Advertising $ Millions Program Planning and Admin 600 Sales, Technical Assistance & Training 72% 400 67% Participant Incentives 74% 200 - 2016-2018 2016-2018 2019-2021 (Planned) (Actual) (Planned) www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 18 18

Commercial & Industrial www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 19 19

ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY END USE Annual C&I Electric Savings by End Use (MWh) 700,000 600,000 500,000 Lighting 400,000 HVAC CHP 300,000 Motors & Drives All Other End Uses 200,000 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 20 20

C&I LIGHTING SAVINGS PROJECTED TO DECLINE BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS Annual C&I Lighting Savings (MWh) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 2016-2018 Evaluated 2019-2021 Plan 200,000 DNV GL Market Model (w/ KPI #4 % controls) 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 21 21

ELECTRIC HVAC SAVINGS DECLINE, BUT NEW PLAN CALLS FOR REBOUND Lifetime Electric C&I HVAC Savings (MWh) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 525,892 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 22 22

UPSTREAM HVAC OPPORTUNITIES Upstream C&I HVAC Elec. Annual Savings (MWh) 6,000 Unitary Air Conditioners Heat Pump Systems Dual Enthalpy Economizer Controls (DEEC) ECM Fan Motors VRF Systems 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 23 23

GAS SAVINGS BY END USE Annual C&I Gas Savings by End Use (Million Therms) 6 5 HVAC 4 Hot Water Process 3 Envelope Custom Measures 2 Food Service All Other 1 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation | | 24 24

GAS HVAC SAVINGS INCREASE Lifetime C&I HVAC Gas Savings (Million Therms) 80 70 60 60.1 50 40 30 20 10 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 www.ma-eeac.org www.ma-eeac.org 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation | | 25 25

THANK YOU QUESTIONS? ► August 21, 2019