2013 Ontario Farmland Forum Jon Scholl, President American Farmland Trust February 15, 2013
What I Want to Cover 1. What is the American Farmland Trust? 2. What opportunities and challenges does agriculture face? 3. How can agriculture be part of the solution?
AFT Mission The mission of American Farmland Trust is to save farmland, promote sound farming practices and keep farmers on the land.
What is AFT? Founded in 1980 Focused on protection of working lands 50 staff in 12 locations across the U.S $10 million annual budget
AFT Program Priorities Permanently protect farm and ranch land. Reduce the rate of agricultural land converted to development. Grow farming and ranching on threatened land. Reduce nutrients loss, replicate models and scale-up. Engage agriculture in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Enact Federal, State and local policies supporting our objectives.
AFT Strategies Position – between agriculture and environment Research – give us the facts Collaborate – grow partnerships Demonstrate – “on the ground” credibility Balance – environment and economic compatibility
Opportunities Ahead!
Population Growth
Growth in Middle Class “ It took al all of human an hist story to bu build d the se seven-trillio rillion-do dollar llar world d economy of 19 1950; 0; toda day economic c ac activity ity grows s by by that at ade. ” am amount every de decad James Gustave Speth The Bridge at the Edge of the World Yale University
Demand Growth 160 China & HK 140 EU 1/ 120 Other 100 Africa & M. East 80 Mexico 60 Latin America 40 FSU & OE 2/ 20 East Asia 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Energy Demand Renewable Fuel Standard – 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022, 15 billion from ethanol. 29 of 50 states have Renewable Portfolio Standards covering 54% of total U.S. retail electricity sales in 2012. Wind energy alone could provide 80,000 new jobs and $1.2 billion in new income for farmers and rural landowners by 2020.
Growing Interest in Food
Strong Headwinds! 1. Less land 2. More demand for water 3. Changing climate 4. More public scrutiny 5. Fewer public resources
Farmland Conversion
Runoff USDA Study of Upper Mississippi River Basin: • N and P loss reduced 45% in last 5 years. • 15% of cultivated cropland has a high level of need for additional conservation treatment. • Another 45% has a moderate level of need.
Water Availability
Climate Change U.S. Geological Survey (2012): • By 2050, will triple the fraction of counties in the U.S. that are at a high or extremely high risk of outstripping their water supplies will triple. University of Tennessee – Study of eastern U.S. (2012): • By 2057-2059, up to 3 degree Celsius temperature rise • 35 percent increase in precipitation • Duration of heat waves will increase from 4 to 6 days.
Status of U.S. Climate Debate “We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but note can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms.” Barack Obama Second Inaugural Address January 21, 2013
U.S. Public Opinion “ …strikingly high numbers of Americans accept that the climate is changing, but support for market-based approaches such as a carbon tax and a system of tradable emissions are not popular...” “ Support rises when asked about more familiar concepts of regulation, such as performance standards, but respondents appear to have little or no knowledge about the possible use of a cap-and- trade system to address climate change.” Sarah Adair Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Studies January 2013
Farm Bill: Fewer Resources
Ag as the Solution!
Ag as the Solution! A study done for Greater Miami Conservancy District in Ohio found that point source upgrades averaged $62.62/lb P and $18.97/lb N whereas ag BMPs averaged $14.19/lb P and $7.06/N. If agriculture widely implemented GHG mitigation/reduction strategies, we could achieve a 9-26% reduction in nitrous oxide and a 15-56% reduction in methane . Wetlands can remove up to 68% of the nitrate-nitrogen draining from tile lines and 43% of the P - but are more effective if they are large relative to the drainage area.
Ag as the Solution!
www.farmland.org
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