2012 Final LCR Study Results Sierra and Stockton Local Areas Binaya Shrestha Sr. Regional Transmission Engineer Stakeholder Meeting April 14, 2011
Sierra Area Load and Resources (MW) 2012 Load = 1713 Transmission Losses = 103 Total Load = 1816 Market Generation = 760 Muni Generation = 1101 QF Generation = 176 Total Qualifying Capacity = 2037 Slide 2
To Sacramento Harter Tudor Barry To Table Mtn. Plumas Encinal Live Oak E. Marysville E. Nicolaus Bogue Olivehur Pease Honcut Catlett st Woodland To Rio Oso Northern Sierra To West Sac. Palermo Browns Vly Bangor Goldfields Yuba Colgate PH Atlantic Columbia Hill Narrows Beal AFB Pike City Grass Vly Formica SPI Smartville Camp Pleasant Lincoln Far Grove West Alleghany Shady Glen Rollins Deer Creek PH Cape Bonnie Drum Weimar Horn Nook Slide 3
Southern Sierra Brunswick Dutch Flat #2 PH Spaulding PH Cisco Grove Tamarack Summit To Drum French Meadows PH Chicago Park PH Dutch Flat #1 PH Bonnie Rio Oso Nook Hole Hell PH Middle Fork PH To Grass Vly. Rollins PH Ralston PH Foresthill Shady Glen Higgins Oxbow PH Weimar Halsey To Pleasant Grove PH Quarries Mtn. Taylor Rd Auburn Bell Placer Wise Atlantic Rocklin Penryn Placerville PH Eldorado PH Sierra Pine Flint Diamond Del Mar Springs Apple Hill To Middle Newcastle Fork PH Horsesho Shingle Springs e Clarksville Gold Hill To Stockton Area Slide 4
New transmission projects modeled: 1. Table Mountain-Rio Oso 230 kV Reconductoring and Tower Upgrade 2. Atlantic-Lincoln 115 kV Upgrade 3. Gold Hill – Horseshoe 115 kV line Reconductoring 4. Palermo-Rio Oso 115 kV Reconductoring New Generation projects modeled: 1. Lodi Energy Center (280 MW) connecting to Lodi STIG 230 kV substation. Slide 5
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies South of Table Mountain South of Table Mountain Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Table Mountain-Rio Oso 230 kV and Table Mountain-Palermo 230 kV DCTL outage Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Caribou-Palermo 115 kV line LCR need: 1399 MW (includes 176 MW of QF and 1101 MW of Muni generation) South Of Table Mountain Sub-area – Category B No additional category B requirement. Units required for South of Palermo satisfy the category B requirement for this sub-area. Slide 6
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies Pease & Bogue Pease Sub-area Contingency: Palermo-East Nicolaus 115 kV line with Green Leaf II Co- gen unit out of service Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Palermo-Pease 115 kV line LCR need: 103 MW (includes 62 MW of QF) Bogue Sub-area No requirement due to the Palermo-Rio Oso Reconductoring Project. Slide 7
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies South of Palermo South Of Palermo Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Double Circuit Tower Line Table Mountain-Rio Oso and Colgate-Rio Oso 230 kV lines Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Pease-Rio Oso 115 kV line LCR need: 1626 MW (includes 694 MW of QF and Muni generation as well as 268 MW of Deficiency) South Of Palermo Sub-area – Category B Contingency: Palermo-E. Nicolaus115 kV line with Belden unit out of service Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Pease-Rio Oso115 kV line LCR need: 1394 MW (includes 694 MW of QF and Muni generation as well as 36 MW of Deficiency) Slide 8
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies Drum-Rio Oso Drum-Rio Oso Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Rio Oso #2 230/115 kV transformer followed by loss of the Rio Oso-Brighton 230 kV line or vice versa Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Rio Oso #1 230/115 kV transformer LCR need: 625 MW (includes 374 MW of QF and Muni) Drum-Rio Oso Sub-area – Category B Contingency: Rio Oso # 2 230/115 kV transformer Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Rio Oso #1 230/115 kV transformer LCR need: 254 MW (includes 374 MW of QF and Muni generation) Slide 9
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies South of Rio Oso South of Rio Oso Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Rio Oso-Gold Hill 230 line followed by loss of the Rio Oso- Lincoln 115 kV line or vice versa Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Rio Oso-Atlantic 230 kV line LCR need: 630 MW (includes 622 MW of QF and Muni generation) South of Rio Oso Sub-area – Category B Contingency: Rio Oso-Gold Hill 230 line with the Ralston unit out of service Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Rio Oso-Atlantic 230 kV line LCR need: 453 MW (includes 622 MW of QF and Muni generation) Slide 10
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies Placer Placer Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Gold Hill-Placer #1 115 kV line followed by loss of the Gold Hill-Placer #2 115 kV line or vice versa Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Drum-Higgins 115 kV line LCR need: 75 MW (includes 0 MW of QF and Muni generation) Placer Sub-area – Category B Contingency: Gold Hill-Placer #2 115 kV line with the Chicago Park unit out of service Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Drum-Higgins 115 kV line LCR need: 44 MW (includes 0 MW of QF and Muni generation) Slide 11
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies Placerville Placerville Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Gold Hill-Clarksville 115 kV line followed by loss of the Gold Hill-Missouri Flat #2 115 kV line or vice versa Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Gold Hill-Missouri Flat #1 115 kV line LCR need: 81 MW (includes 0 MW of QF and Muni generation as well as 57 MW of Deficiency) Placerville Sub-area – Category B No requirements because of decrease in load. Slide 12
Critical Sierra Area Contingencies Aggregate QF Muni Market Max. Qualifying (MW) (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) Available generation 176 1101 760 2037 Existing Generation Deficiency Total MW Capacity Needed (MW) (MW) Need Category B (Single) 1489 36 1525 Category C (Multiple) 1685 289 1974 Each unit is only counted once, regardless in how many sub-areas it is needed. In order to come up with an aggregate deficiency, where applicable the deficiencies in each smaller sub-area has been accounted for (based on their effectiveness factors) toward the deficiency of a much larger sub-area. Slide 13
Changes Since last stakeholder meeting: 1) Updated NQC Since last year: 1) Load forecast went down by 161 MW. 2) New generator (280 MW) modeled. 3) Existing generation capacity need increased by 175 MW. 4) Magnitude of deficiency decreased significantly because of the addition of the new generator . 5) Overall LCR need has decreased by 110 MW. Your comments and questions are welcome. Your comments and questions are welcome. For written comments, please send to: RegionalTransmission@caiso.com Slide 14
Stockton Area Load and Resources (MW) 2012 Load = 1067 Transmission Losses = 19 Total Load = 1086 Market Generation = 259 Muni Generation = 141 QF Generation = 105 Total Qualifying Capacity = 505 Slide 15
Stockton Area Colony New Hope To Gold Hill To Rio Oso To Gold Hill Martell To Brighton Ione Sebastiani W Lodi Stig Lodi West Pnt Clay Grove Pine Victor Electra Lockeford Industrial Terminous Pardee PH Eight Mile Valley Springs Hammer Mettler Linden Corral Mormon Stagg East Mosher Stockton Lawrence Lab Country Club Stockton “A” Weber Donnells PH Tesla Leprino Ellis Food Bellota Tracy AEC Stanislaus PH Safeway Howland Road Manteca Vierra GWF Owens Illinois Melones Lammers Energy Teichert Kasson Banta Modesto Racetrack Ripon Co- Tulloch PH Gen Ingram Creek Riverbank Fiberboard Miller Crows Newman Gustine Curtis Salado Salado Lndg. Slide 16
Critical Stockton Area Contingencies Tesla-Bellota Sub-area Tesla-Bellota Sub-area – Category C Contingency 1: Tesla-Tracy 115 kV line and Schulte-Lammers 115 kV line. Limiting component 1: Thermal overload on the Tesla-Kasson-Manteca 115 kV line. LCR Need: 401 MW (194 MW of QF/Muni and 114 MW of deficiency). Contingency 2: Tesla-Tracy 115 kV line and Tesla-Kasson-Manteca 115 kV line. Limiting component 2: Thermal overload on the Tesla-Schulte 115 kV line. LCR Need: 337 MW (includes 194 MW of QF and Muni generation). TOTAL LCR Need: 451 MW (194 MW of QF/Muni and 114 MW of deficiency) Tesla-Bellota Sub-area – Category B Contingency: Tesla-Tracy 115 kV line and the loss of Stanislaus #1. Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Tesla-Schulte 115 kV line. LCR Need: 123 MW (includes 194 MW of QF and Muni generation). Slide 17
Tesla-Bellota 115 kV Area Transmission Comanche Lockeford Critical 115 kV Outage 1 Bellota 230 kV Stockton Critical Outage 2 115 kV NO Tracy Stockton Co-gen GWF Tracy Tesla Stanislaus Manteca Kasson Donnells River Bank Beardsley 230 kV Spring Gap 115 kV Tulloch Salado Melones QF’s Slide 18
Critical Stockton Area Contingencies Lockeford Sub-area Lockeford Sub-area – Category C Contingency: Lockeford-Industrial followed by Lockeford-Lodi #2 60 kV line or vice versa Limiting component: Thermal overload on the Lockeford-Lodi Jct. section of the Lockeford-Lodi #3 60 kV line LCR need: 55 MW (includes 25 MW of QF and Muni generation as well as 30 MW of Deficiency) Lockeford Sub-area – Category B No category B requirement. Slide 19
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