2010-2012 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency Programs: Three-Year - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2010-2012 Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency Programs: Three-Year Review and Trend Analysis EEAC Consultants September 10, 2013 (draft)

Introduction • Review of the performance of the first Three-Year Plan, specifically the EE programs in 2010-2012, with comparisons to the Plans and goals • Initial review of the 2010-2012 performance and trends; additional follow up with the PAs is planned • Data are from the PAs (data from the individual PAs plus statewide compilations where available) • There are some remaining data inconsistencies • PAs provided a factual reporting of what happened in 2010-2012 (see PA presentation distributed on 9/6); the EEAC consultants are providing observations and additional trend analysis 2

Key Findings/Observations • Many important program advances in 2010-2012 • Savings and benefits increased significantly each year (higher goals and higher actual achievements) • Savings and benefits were short of 2010-2012 Plan goals (missed savings and benefits relative to the Plan), particularly in the C&I sector in 2011 and 2012 • Missed annual savings add up and have a cumulative effect • When annual savings goals are missed it is challenging to catch up in future years that already have high goals • The underinvestment in 2010-2012 relative to Plan budget was significant, and a portion of the underinvestment could have been used to achieve 100% of the goals • Differences in performance across sectors and PAs 3

Total Benefits, 2010-2012 Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Total Benefits: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric and Gas $3,000 Significant increases in goals and in benefits achieved each year 2010 ‐ 2012 achieved benefits of $5,468M vs. $5,960M in the Plan (92% of Plan) Missed total electric and gas benefits in 2010 ‐ 2012: $492M $2,500 93%, ($188.0M) Benefits ($, Millions) $2,000 90%, ($207.5M) $1,500 93%, ($97.0M) $1,000 $500 $0 2011 2012 2010 Planned Statewide Electric Benefits Planned Statewide Gas Benefits Achieved Statewide Electric Benefits Achieved Statewide Gas Benefits 4

Electric Benefits, 2010-2012 Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Total Benefits: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric Missed Total Electric Benefits in 2010 ‐ 2012: $440 Million (9% of Plan) $2,500 Total Benefits ($, Millions) ($198M) $2,000 91 % ($205M) $1,500 88% ($36M) $1,000 97 % $500 $0 2010 2011 2012 Plan Report 5

Electric Annual Savings Planned Versus Achieved Statewide Annual Savings: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric 1,200,000 (130,048) 1,000,000 88% Annual Savings (MWh) (117,330) 800,000 87% (5,366) 600,000 99% 400,000 200,000 ‐ 2010 2011 2012 Plan Report 6

Cumulative Effect of Missed Annual Savings Cumulative Missed Annual Savings: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric 300,000 The cumulative annual savings impact missing at the end of 2012 is 252,743 MWh (equivalent to 21% of the 2013 annual savings goal) 252,743 250,000 Missed annual savings in 2010 ‐ 2012: 380,804 MWh (32% of 2013 goal) Missed Annual Savings (MWh) 130,048 *The values for missed savings in this chart will be lower once accounting for the one ‐ year measure life of behavior programs. 200,000 150,000 122,695 117,330 100,000 50,000 5,366 0 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 7

Missed Annual Savings were Mainly in the C&I Sector Over or Under Achievement of Annual Savings Goals: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric 40,000 7% 10% 20,184 20,000 14,449 2% 5,272 Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals, MWh ‐ GOAL (2,875) (5,366) (6,125) (10,029) 8% (13,690) (20,000) 26% 1% 33% 3% (40,000) (60,000) (80,000) (100,000) (112,573) (120,000) (117,330) Percentages are Over or Under Achievement 17% 13% as a % of the Annual Savings Goal (130,048) (140,000) 12% (147,356) 19% (160,000) 2010 2011 2012 Residential Low Income C&I Statewide 8

Underinvestment in 2010-2012 Planned Versus Actual Statewide Total PA Costs: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric Underinvestment in 2010 ‐ 2012: $294 Million (25% of Plan) $600 PA Costs ($, Millions) $500 ($110.7M) $400 ($140.1M) 78% $300 ($42.7M) 66% $200 85% $100 $0 2010 2011 2012 Plan Report 9

Underinvestment in 2010-2012 was Mainly in the C&I Sector Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric $40 The C&I sector accounts for $242M (82%) of the $294M underinvestment in 2010 ‐ 2012. $20 Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, Millions) $0 PLAN (2) (8) (8) (9) (11) 1% ($20) (15) 24% 14% 22% 12% (23) 12% 16% ($40) (43) 15% ($60) ($80) ($100) (101) (111) 34% ($120) (117) 22% Percentages are Over or Under 46% Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget ($140) (140) 34% ($160) 2010 2011 2012 Residential Low Income C&I Statewide 10

Achievement of Electric C&I Annual Savings Goals by PA Over or Under Achievement of C&I Annual Savings Goals: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric by PA 40,000 222% 20,000 53% 11,924 2% 8,357 4,737 GOAL 0 (1,761) (772) (4,952) (2,795) (7,542) 25% (7,114) 1% 31% 38% (8,352) 21% (13,690) (11,678) 40% (12,906) (20,000) Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals, MWh 28% 57% 3% 25% (20,418) 42% (32,126) (35,122) (40,000) (36,954) 25% 11% 10% (60,000) (67,339) (70,582) 8% (80,000) 25% (89,749) 28% (100,000) (112,573) (120,000) 17% (140,000) (147,356) ~ 19% (160,000) ~ Percentages are Over or Under Achievement (162,092) 20% as a % of the Annual Savings Goal (180,000) (273,619) 15% (200,000) 2010 2011 2012 2010 ‐ 2012 11 NGRID NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil Statewide

Underinvestment of Electric C&I Budgets by Individual PA Over or Under Expenditure of C&I Plan Budget: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric by PA $20 PLAN $0 (1) (0) (0) (2) (1) (2) (3) (2) (2) (5) (6) 15% 21% (8) 7% 31% 22% 33% 27% 11% (9) 25% 13% 54% 13% (12) 34% ($20) 18% (23) Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, Millions) 16% ($40) (43) 35% (53) (54) (55) ($60) 49% 46% 37% ($80) ($100) (101) (104) 34% 36% ($120) (117) (121) 46% 36% ~ ($140) 34% ~ Percentages are Over or Under Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget ($160) (242) ($180) 2010 2011 2012 2010 ‐ 2012 12 NGRID NSTAR WMECO CLC Unitil Statewide

Spending Only a Portion of the Underinvestment Would Achieve Goals 1,200,000 $550 Spending only a portion of the $111M underinvestment in 2012 $500 would have achieved the goals 1,110,161 130,048 $498M 1,000,000 $450 980,113 $41M $400 800,000 $387M Annual Savings (MWh) $350 PA Costs ($ Million) $300 600,000 $250 $200 400,000 $150 $100 200,000 $50 ‐ $0 Plan Savings Plan Budget Actual Savings Actual Expenditures Savings Additional Savings Spending Additional Spending 13

2013 Trends (Q2 Electric) Q2 % of Plan Numbers, 2012 vs. 2013 Electric 40% 34% 35% 31% Q2 as % of Plan Goal 27% 30% 25% 23% 25% 21% 21% 18% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Total C&I Total C&I Savings Spending 2012 2013 14

15 Gas Benefits, 2010-2012

16 Gas Annual Savings

Cumulative Effect of Missed Annual Gas Savings Cumulative Missed Annual Savings: 2010 ‐ 2012 Gas 7,000,000 6,419,981 961,591 6,000,000 5,458,390 Missed Annual Savings (Therms) 3,117,394 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,340,996 2,000,000 1,000,000 ‐ 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 17

Missed Annual Gas Savings were in C&I and Residential Over or Under Achievement of Annual Savings Goals: 2010 ‐ 2012 Gas 1,500 81% For 2010 ‐ 2012, Low Income gas savings were 27% higher than goal. C&I savings were 20% below 1,011 1,000 goal, and Residential savings were 8% below goal. 18% Over or Under Achievement of Savings Goals (Therms, 000) 500 0% 201 32 ‐ GOAL (283) (338) (352) (500) 5% 3% 37% (1,000) (962) 4% (1,500) (1,621) (1,720) (2,000) 14% 26% (2,341) (2,500) 17% (3,000) (3,117) (3,351) 17% (3,500) 36% Percentages are Over or Under Achievement as a % of the Annual Savings Goal (4,000) 2010 2011 2012 Residential Low Income C&I Statewide 18

19 Gas Expenditures in 2010-2012

Expenditure Patterns Varied; Underinvestment in Gas C&I Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget: 2010 ‐ 2012 Gas $10,000 10% The C&I sector accounted for $18.5M (88%) of the $20.9M gas underinvestment in 2010 ‐ 2012. $7,033 19% $5,480 3% $5,000 $3,445 Over or Under Expenditure of Plan Budget ($, 000) 1% $453 $ ‐ PLAN $(4,237) $(4,052) $(5,000) 26% 15% $(5,356) $(5,522) $(5,614) 27% 13% 22% $(9,067) $(9,213) $(10,000) 26% 9% $(15,000) $(15,116) 19% Percentages are Over or Under Expenditures as a % of the Plan Budget $(20,000) 2010 2011 2012 Residential Low Income C&I Statewide 20

2013 Trends (Q2 Gas) Q2 % of Plan Numbers, 2012 vs. 2013 Gas 45% 42% 40% 36% 34% Q2 as % of Plan Goal 35% 26% 30% 22% 25% 19% 17% 20% 14% 15% 10% 5% 0% Total C&I Total C&I Savings Spending 2012 2013 21

22 OTHER SLIDES FOR REFERENCE

Missed Electric Lifetime Savings Cumulative Missed Lifetime Savings: 2010 ‐ 2012 Electric 1,800,000 1,652,527 1,600,000 1,514,561 Missed Lifetime Savings (MWh) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 137,966 84,837 53,129 0 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 23