2009 Ozone Season OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5 th Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD
Current Design Values Design Values Projected 2007-09 Design Value Note: Includes two years of cooler and wetter weather and a d down economy. 2009 data not yet final Only 2 sites over the 1997 th 1997 Note: Red ( ■ ) and Black ( + ) standard symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone
OTR Ozone Day Trends 1997-2009* OTR Ozone Day Trends 1997 2009 160 0.17 0.153 0.16 150 0.15 140 0.137 0.135 0.133 0.133 0.14 0.131 130 0.130 0.130 0.125 0.123 0.13 0.121 120 106 0.112 0.12 105 110 110 0.109 0 109 0.11 100 92 88 0.10 87 84 90 D a y s 80 78 0.09 P P M 80 71 0.08 0.08 P 67 67 # 66 66 66 66 70 60 0.07 57 57 54 60 52 0.06 48 47 50 0.05 37 36 34 34 40 40 0 04 0.04 30 30 26 30 0.03 20 0.02 11 10 0.01 0 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 # days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr
Comparison of 4 th High OzoneValues Comparison of 4 High OzoneValues 2005 2005 2007 2007 2009 2009 Note: Red ( ■ ) and Black ( + ) symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone Note: Red ( ■ ) and Black ( + ) symbols represent monitors > 75ppb Ozone
Ozone Days vs High Temperature Days y g p y New Hampshire 1985 - 2008 Number of days per 60 year above 85F Years sorted in order of Years sorted in order of ( orange bars ) 2005 increasing number of hot days 50 2007 Expected number of ozone exceedance days per year, ays 2003 40 based on temperature based on temperature umber of D ( black line ) 2006 30 2004 2008 Actual number of ozone 20 exceedance days per year y p y N ( blue line ) 10 Recent years highlighted ( blue circles blue circles ) 0 6 6 8 2 0 4 7 6 9 5 7 8 3 9 4 8 3 0 7 1 2 1 5 5 9 8 0 9 0 0 9 0 8 8 8 9 0 9 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 9 0 9 9 9 0 9 0 0 9 0 9 9 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 0 9 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 Year The number of exceedances drop below the ozone trend line in recent The number of exceedances drop below the ozone trend line in recent years indicating that the recent decline in ozone levels is not solely due to a decrease in summer temperatures.
Emissions and Modeling Update OTC Fall Meeting 2009 November 5 th Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD
Emission Inventory Update Emission Inventory Update • Stakeholder outreach • A preview of point source trends • Review of inventory data sources • Next steps • Key issues
2007 Point Sources External Review of Annual Data External Review of Annual Data • September 2-3, 2009 September 2 3 2009 Presentation at the OTC Committee Meeting • October 6 2009 October 6, 2009 Draft 2007 Point Source files posted by MARAMA for Stakeholder review. • October 21 at 10:00 A.M Conference call with states and stakeholders • Comments due by November 3, 2009 C t d b N b 3 2009 • November 2009 Completion of 2007 point source inventory Completion of 2007 point source inventory
Top 125 NOx Sources in OTR+ VA
Emission Changes in Top 125 NOx Sources Draft 2007 vs 2002 Draft 2007 vs. 2002 Barbara to add here from MARAMA Slides
Emission Changes in Top 125 NOx Sources Draft 2007 vs 2009 BOTW Draft 2007 vs. 2009 BOTW
Area Source Improvements p • Agriculture Ammonia Agriculture Ammonia - Updated with 2007 Census of Agriculture. • Residential Wood Combustion - EPA/PECHAN Microsoft Access Tool with 2007 population updates. • Wildfires - EPA has offered a 2007 wildfire inventory • Agricultural Burning - States to provide
Area Source Improvements p • Other Area Sources Other Area Sources • States are reviewing methods proposed nationally • EPA 2008 draft inventory will be starting point EPA 2008 d ft i t ill b t ti i t States will provide data to convert EPA’s 2008 States will provide data to convert EPAs 2008 estimates to 2007.
Temporal Allocation – Point/Area • Goal: reflect variability in emissions that affect air quality – seasonal, daily, hourly • Will work with other regions EPA and contractor • Will work with other regions, EPA, and contractor to develop methods focusing on - CEM data for EGUs CEM data for EGUs - Seasonal ammonia emissions - Residential wood combustion - High Electric Demand Days Hi h El t i D d D
Onroad Mobile Source Data • EPA requires use of new MOVES model EPA requires use of new MOVES model • Until new model can be run, previous data will be used • Options under review 1. States to provide input data for NESCAUM to run MOVES 2. States to run MOVES and provide hourly 2 St t t MOVES d id h l emissions data for their counties
Nonroad Mobile Source Data Nonroad Mobile Source Data • Started with EPA 2007 run of the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) - States reviewed and modified the NMIM input data - Household and population data were updated. H h ld d l ti d t d t d • MACTEC reran the NMIM model MACTEC reran the NMIM model - States are reviewing NMIM Output. • Marine, air, and rail categories - States are reviewing marine data from EPA - RPOs updating rail data (ERTAC) – Class I RR data - States are reviewing airport data from EPA
Emission Inventory Next Steps Emission Inventory Next Steps • November 3, 2009 – Stakeholders Stakeholders November 3, 2009 comment on 2007 point source annual emissions & stack parameters emissions & stack parameters • November ‘09 – Contractor finalizes 2007 Point Source Annual Modeling Inventory o t Sou ce ua ode g e to y • December ’09 – States provide area source data/factors sou ce da a/ ac o s • December ’09 – EPA provides final MOVES model
Key Inventory Issues • Timely availability of new MOVES model and associated guidance i t d id • Timely availability of base case and future year • Timely availability of base case and future year estimates of emissions data from other regions • EPA approval of alternative methods for forecasting EGU emissions • Choice of future years for ozone planning
Modeling Update Modeling Update • SIP Modeling Platform • HEDD Screening
SIP Modeling Platform g • OTC Platform Upgrades: – Most recent version of CMAQ Most recent version of CMAQ – Updated carbon bond chemistry – Updated BEIS emissions model for biogenic emissions – 2002 MM5 meteorology (upgraded processing) gy ( pg p g) – 2005 emissions: • interpolated between 2002 and 2009 for all sectors except EGU • EGU Emissions obtained from LADCO and upgraded by • EGU Emissions obtained from LADCO and upgraded by NJDEP for MANE-VU States – Upgraded Emission Processing Model (SMOKE) • Emissions for base year (2005) and future year 2012 (“NoCAIR” with 40% across the board NOx reductions - except biogenics) used for platform comparisons
Upgrades to Modeling Platform Upgrades to Modeling Platform 2012 40% NOx Reduction Case Produces higher future ozone design values than older version with older version with the same All data points emissions data still under New 75ppb with new 75ppb with new Pl tf Platform platform! Old Platform
Additional Modeling Platform Upgrades • Biogenic emissions based on MEGAN – Comparative analysis with BEIS • New Emission Base year - 2007 • Temporalized 2007 EGU emissions from EPA/CAMD • On road emissions using MOVES model • Canadian emissions based on 2005/2006 • 2007 meteorology developed with WRF
HEDD Screening • Purpose • Status • Next Steps
High Electricity Demand Units Tend to Operate on High Ozone Days g y Highest emissions occur on highest ozone days
Load Following Boilers and Peaking Units Often Have High NOx Emission Rates Pounds NOx per hour Peaking Units Load Following Base-Load Base Load
Default Emissions Modeling Techniques Miss Important Fluctuations August 2002 Hourly NOx Emissions in the MANE-VU Region from CEM Data and SMOKE-Processed Point Source Files (Adjusted to Remove the Effect of non-CEM-matched Point Sources) Crosswalk matching 300000 was successful only to Emission peaks lost about 85% or so in 250000 50000 by emission model b emission model accounting for accounting for emissions of NOx over the domain. 200000 CEM H CEM Hourly Data l D t lbs/hr r 150000 SMOKE Hourly Data 100000 50000 0 8/1/2002 0:00 8/3/2002 0:00 8/5/2002 0:00 8/7/2002 0:00 8/9/2002 0:00 8/11/2002 0:00 8/13/2002 0:00 8/15/2002 0:00 8/17/2002 0:00 8/19/2002 0:00 8/21/2002 0:00 8/23/2002 0:00 8/25/2002 0:00 8/27/2002 0:00 8/29/2002 0:00 8/31/2002 0:00
HEDD Work To-Date • Determine data needs for temporal modeling p g of HEDD units • Research modeling process for handling Research modeling process for handling HEDD • • Propose methodology for assessing Propose methodology for assessing importance of HEDD sources on air quality • Draft Work Plan a ailable for comment Draft Work Plan available for comment
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