1
play

1 Structure and objectives Comparative analysis of RES and RUE heat - PDF document

Jul 05, 2023 •341 likes •424 views

Integrating Policies for Renewables and Energy Efficiency: Comparing Results from Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland Lukas Kranzl (EEG, TU Wien) Jacky Pett, Pedro Guertler (ACE) Anselm Brakhage, Mario Ragwitz (Fraunhofer ISI) Michael

  1. Integrating Policies for Renewables and Energy Efficiency: Comparing Results from Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland Lukas Kranzl (EEG, TU Wien) Jacky Pett, Pedro Guertler (ACE) Anselm Brakhage, Mario Ragwitz (Fraunhofer ISI) Michael Stadler (LBL & CET, Austria ) www.invert.at Introduction 40% of EU energy demand for heating and • DHW DHW Big potentials for saving energy and using • renewable energy carriers European policies still do not put the same • effort on renewables and energy efficiency for heating and DHW as for electricity and transport biofuels. t t bi f l www.invert.at 1

  2. Structure and objectives Comparative analysis of RES and RUE heat • policies in Germany Luxembourg and policies in Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland – Current situation – Prospects – Policy options – Scenarios up to 2020 Conclusions regarding the design of RES and Conclusions regarding the design of RES and • RUE heat policies in the building stock and improve building energy performance throughout Europe. www.invert.at Methodology Distinction of building stock and related • heating and DHW systems heating and DHW systems – Building categories – Construction periods Description of these building types • – Geometry data – Building thermal quality (U-values) – Distribution of heating and DHW systems Invert simulation runs • – Implementation of building and heating system data – Definition of exogenous scenario parameters – Simulation runs and impact of various policy options www.invert.at 2

  3. Case studies Germany • Luxembourg • Northern Ireland • www.invert.at Comparative results (1) – U-values 2,00 2,20 5,00 1,80 2,00 , 4,50 4 50 U-values ceiling U-values exterior walls U-values windows 1,60 1,80 4,00 1,40 1,60 3,50 1,40 1,20 3,00 W/m²K 1,20 1,00 2,50 1,00 0,80 2,00 0,80 0,60 1,50 0,60 0,40 1,00 0,40 0,20 0,50 0,20 0,00 0,00 0,00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 ca. 1919-194 before 191 ca. 1919-194 ca 1945-197 ca. 1971-198 ca. 1981-199 ca. 1991-200 after 200 before 191 ca. 1919-194 ca 1945-197 ca. 1971-198 ca. 1981-199 ca. 1991-200 after 200 before 19 ca 1945-19 ca. 1971-19 ca. 1981-19 ca. 1991-20 after 20 Luxembourg Northern Ireland Germany www.invert.at 3

  4. Comparative results (2) – Energy carrier mix for heating Other (includes wood Mains gas biomass district p pellets) ) electricity electricity district district 4% 4% LPG LPG 2% 2% biomass heating 1% 4% heating Dual bottled gas coal 7% 1% Electricity LPG 13% (mainly fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% oil + electricity) Solid fuel 11% (coal/anthr oil acite) oil 27% 16% 46% natural gas 46% natural electricity gas 5% 47% 47% Fuel oil Fuel oil 66% Germany Luxembourg Northern Ireland www.invert.at Germany – useful energy demand heating and DHW 05 = 100%) 100% 95% 95% energy demand for heating (200 90% . 85% 80% useful 75% 70% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ref w/o subsidies Ref DSM x2 DSM x3 DSM x4 DSM max www.invert.at 4

  5. Germany – RES-Heat development „Bonus-Scheme“ 180.000 GWh / a] 160.000 140.000 final energy production [G 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 District heating biomass District heating solar thermal District heating geothermal District heating biomass Pellets Wood chips Wood log Solar thermal Heat pumps www.invert.at Luxembourg – useful energy demand for heating and DHW . 100,0% 95,0% nergy for heating (2006 = 100%) 90,0% 85,0% 80,0% 75,0% Useful e 70,0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 high price w/o subsidies high price BAU high price DSM low price w/o subsidies low price BAU low price DSM DSM plus www.invert.at 5

  6. Luxembourg – final energy demand for heating and DHW GWh) 4.000 3.500 final energy demand heating (G 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 f 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 heating oil natural gas LPG electricity district heating wood electricity www.invert.at Northern Ireland – useful heating demand depending on subsidies for wall and ceiling insulation 12.000,00 . 11.500,00 ating demand (GWh) 11.000,00 10.500,00 10.000,00 9.500,00 9.000,00 useful hea 8.500,00 8.000,00 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 no subsidy 20% subsidy 40% subsidy 50% subsidy www.invert.at 6

  7. Northern Ireland – efficiency CO2 curve 25 Pellet boiler subsidy only: e (kgCO 2 /€) Subsidies including insulation Low I subsidy + var. 20 20 P subsidy O 2 reduction / cumulative public expenditure Mid I subsidy + var. P subsidy 15 High I subsidy + var. P subsidy Higher I subsidy + var. P subsidy 10 100% I subsidy + var. P subsidy cumulative CO Solar thermal 5 subsidy Subsidies not including insulation Variable insulation subsidy and 50% solar thermal 0 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% reduction in 2023 annual CO 2 emissions relative to baseline scenario www.invert.at The implication of RES and RUE development RES heating systems in general show higher • investment costs and lower fuel costs For insulated buildings, energy demand decreases and • heating systems with lower investment costs and higher fuel costs become more attractive Under central European climate conditions, heat load of • buildings is expected to decrease in average by about 40-50% up to 2050 (Muller 2006). Thus, tendency to adopt electric heating systems • (Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of (Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of insulation measures. So it is crucial for specific targetted measures for low • energy buildings to promote RES-H and protect gains made through insulation www.invert.at 7

  8. Comparison of policy structure and culture Luxembourg: • currently low energy taxes for fossil fuels – Thus: high levels of subsidies for RES and RUE required – But: high administrative barriers for these subsidies – Current discussion focus on DSM and options of – integrating RES promotion in the energy certificate Germany • Current RES-heat policies: moderate investment – subsidies by the federal government Discussions of transfering the positive experiences with – promoting RES-E to the heat sector Integration of RES and RUE is currently under discussion – Northern Ireland • Policies are primarily household and not building related – Policies are mainly socially motivated – Energy savings obligations by energy suppliers – www.invert.at Conclusions In all investigated case studies, substantial uptake of • DSM in the building sector DSM in the building sector Trend from oil to gas will continue; high impact of • energy prices on this development Some part of these savings will be offset by rebound • effects, partially due to the trend to low-investment heating system. Question: how will RES-H market cope with declining • future heat loads? future heat loads? Challenge: creating medium and long-term stable • attractive conditions for both RES and RUE and combining related promotion schemes (e.g. by the means of the energy certificate for buildings). www.invert.at 8

Recommend

More recommend