Presentation to the Education Assessment and Accountability Review Subcommittee by the Office of Education Accountability November 12, 2019 1 Higher wages for CTE pathway completers in all program areas Of the high-wage high-demand (HWHD) program areas: Highest wages for manufacturing, transportation, and construction pathway completers Relatively lower wages for health pathway completers; more completers in health than in any other program area Pathway completers in some non-HWHD CTE program areas—especially agriculture —earn much more than health pathway completers CTE wage premiums vary by student demographic group 2 1
Background CTE Pathway Completion And Demand Workforce Outcomes Conclusions And Future Considerations 3 OEA KENTUCKY CENTER FOR STATISTICS KDE CPE 2019 survey of principals in all Postsecondary CTE pathway, degrees and ATCs, LAVECs, industry certificate/KOSSA, credentials and comprehensive dual credit, co-op participation, high schools demographics, Site visits and ACT, GPA interviews with Workforce Data superintendents Wages and principals in 4 districts Linked and Sector de-identified KYSTATS 4 2
Wage data Reveal sector but not occupation Do not indicate full- versus part-time status CTE may have benefits not captured by wage data alone Wage benefits of college degrees not fully captured in this study 5 Career Pathways 172 individual pathways Grouped into 12 program areas in report Graduates completing four courses considered “completers” Performance-based assessments Industry certificates State-approved assessments Work-based learning Dual credit 6 3
Career ready indicators in Career Pathways previous accountability system* 172 individual pathways Grouped into 12 program areas in report Graduates completing four courses considered “completers” Performance-based assessments Industry certificates State-approved assessment (formerly KOSSA) Work-based learning Dual credit *Previous system required completion of at least two courses in a pathway and also required a career ready academic component. 7 Career Pathways 172 individual pathways Grouped into 12 program areas in report Graduates completing four courses considered “completers” Transition ready indicators in current accountability system Performance-based assessments Industry certificates State-approved assessment (formerly KOSSA) Work-based learning Dual credit 8 4
PROGRAMS ALIGNED WITH ADDITIONAL PROGRAM HWHD SECTORS* AREAS Business Agriculture* Construction Arts/AV Health Human services Information technology (IT) (consumer family sciences, Manufacturing food, education*, etc.) Transportation and Law/public safety logistics Retail STEM* * KDE list of HWHD industry certificates revised annually and currently includes certificates aligned with some pathways in these areas 9 State-operated Area Technology Centers (ATCs) 53 serving 124 districts Local Area Vocational Education Centers (LAVECs) 42 serving 34 districts Comprehensive high schools Greatest number of CTE pathway completers Other District-funded CTE centers (8) Kentucky Community and Technical College System (KCTCS) 10 5
Area Technology Centers (ATCs) 11 Local Area Vocational Education Centers (LAVECs) 12 6
All CTE Delivery 13 Background CTE Pathway Completion And Demand Workforce Outcomes Conclusions And Future Considerations 14 7
Low Medium High Healthcare Office and administrative support Transportation and material moving Occupation Group Food preparation and serving related Sales and related Production (Manufacturing) Management Two thirds of projected jobs Education, training, and library do not require any education Installation, maintenance, and repair beyond high school Personal care and service Construction and extraction Business and financial operations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Number Of Projected Jobs 15 Health Business and finance Percent CTE completers of graduates Percent sector jobs of all openings Agriculture Manufacturing CTE Program Area Law/safety Constuction CTE Sales Education Food/accommodation Transportation* 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent Note: this slide shows only those CTE areas that align well with major occupation groups reported in the Kentucky Future Skills Report. See full OEA report for pathways completed in all program areas. *OEA used the installation, maintenance and repair occupation group as the best indication of demand for CTE transportation pathway completers . 16 8
The percentage of graduates completing CTE pathways in manufacturing, transportation and construction varies by: Region CTE delivery in ATC, LAVEC or comprehensive high school Student demographic group 17 Percent sector jobs of all openings Percent CTE completers of graduates Western Kentucky TENCO Local Workforce Area South Central Northern Kentucky Lincoln Trail Kentuckiana Works Green River EKCEP Cumberlands Bluegrass 0 5 10 15 Percent CTE Supply Or Workforce Demand 18 9
Local industry demand Cost of supplies and equipment Higher-wage pathways costly Higher-wage pathways concentrated in ATCs Availability of qualified teachers Student interest New pathways not always well enrolled 19 ATC LAVEC Comprehensive high schools Health Agriculture Business and administration Human services Program Area Manufacturing Construction Law & public safety Retail IT STEM Transportation Arts A/V 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Number Of Pathway Completers 20 10
Manufacturing 12 Health 10 Percent Of Graduates 8 6 4 2 0 All Female Male White Black Hispanic FRPL IEP Graduates (n=23,183) (n=23,974) (n=39,605) (n=5,482) (n=2,576) (n=24,454) (n=3,443) (n=47,157) Student Group 21 Background CTE Pathway Completion And Demand Workforce Outcomes Conclusions And Future Considerations 22 11
Total number working in industry sector Average wages all high school graduates 4,000 76% male 40,000 Number Working In Sector 14% male 93% male 3,500 35,000 Average Wages ($) 3,000 30,000 2,500 25,000 2,000 20,000 1,500 15,000 1,000 10,000 500 5,000 0 0 Industry Sector 14% 35,000 Completer Noncompleter 9% 30,000 Average Wages ($) 22% 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 No postsecondary Postsecondary Associate's degree degree or credential certificate (n=889) (n=19,486) (n=925) Postsecondary Education Level 24 12
35,000 30,000 Average Wages ($) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CTE Program Area Note: see page 45 of the full report for wages in all program areas. Noncompleters All completers 40,000 $36,250 Completers in corresponding CTE program area 35,000 $31,461 30,000 Average Wages ($) 25,000 $19,324 20,000 $18,048 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Manufacturing Health Industry Sector Of Employment 26 13
Pathway completers in some non-HWHD programs earn higher 35,000 wages than pathway completers in some HWHD programs. 30,000 Average Wages ($) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CTE Program Area Note: see page 45 of the full report for wages in all program areas. Possible explanations for higher wages: May have greater opportunities for work- based learning (WBL) Agriculture teachers work 12 months, in order to supervise student clubs and WBL Some pathways include technical skills like welding and carpentry that might transfer to other sectors 28 14
No postsecondary degree or certificate Postsecondary certificate 50,000 45,000 Average Wages ($) Associate or above 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CTE Program Area 14,000 Average Wages ($) 12,000 10,000 Industry certificate/KOSSA 8,000 No industry 6,000 certifiate/KOSSA 4,000 2,000 0 CTE Completers Noncompleters 30 15
Completer Noncompleter 30,000 25,000 Average Wages ($) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Female Male Female Male 3 Years after graduation 5 Years after graduation 31 Student Wages For CTE Wages For CTE CTE wage Group Completers Noncompleters premium Black $15,090 $12,526 20% Hispanic 19,657 17,249 14 White 18,671 15,333 22 FRPL 16,994 14,328 19 Not FRPL 20,737 15,944 30 Note: Table includes 2018 wages of 2015 graduates. 32 16
Background CTE Pathway Completion And Demand Workforce Outcomes Conclusions And Future Considerations 33 Clear and unmet demand for workers prepared to work in higher-wage sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and construction Program completion in related sectors uneven among regions, CTE delivery types, and student groups State investment in health pathways alone insufficient in itself to produce higher-wage workers; higher-wage health jobs required college degrees 34 17
Access to higher-wage pathways ATCs versus LAVECs and others Underrepresented student groups Local decision making In some cases, non-HWHD pathways may better reflect local needs and be associated with higher wages than HWHD pathways CTE opportunities offered to high school students may not always be aligned with workforce demand Use workforce data to evaluate outcomes Program completion and wages Industry and state-approved assessments and wages 35 END 36 18
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