[01.04] Africa Regional Status Report 7 TH Regional Coordinators Meeting September 19-21, 2012 Washington, DC
Outline Distribution of participating countries Status of data collection and submission Importance indicators Status of data validation Status of the calculation of annual average prices National accounts activities Other price surveys (specific surveys) Timeline of other price surveys Overall risk Assessment Upcoming events and publications 2
Distribution of participating countries AMU countries (4) ECCAS countries (8) ECOWAS countries (15) COMESA countries (10) SADC COUNTRIES (13) Non participating countries in the surveys(3)
Status of data collection and submission Data submission in 2011 and 2012 Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 in 2011 Countries 49 50 49 47 out of 50 Quarter Q1 Q2 in 2012 Countries 19 12 out of 50 • 50 countries have collected data and the submission is described above Scope : Mixed coverage – national, urban and capital • cities, and cities only 4
Importance indicators in the Household survey • The notion of Importance had not received much attention in the implementation of the Program • A detailed discussion was only made in during the June 2012 regional workshop in Tunisia and therefore it was review in retrospect The 50 participating countries have submitted their • matrix of product availability and importance 5
Status of data validation • Process of data validation The second regional data validation was conducted in June • 2012 in Tunisia. Countries were organized in (5) working groups (COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC and AMU) to review and discuss data for quarters three and four as well as data collected in February and April 2012. Data of all products for each Basic Headings were reviewed. • Problematic items were identified for further actions at the regional level. The iterative process of data validation after the workshop between • countries and the AfDB started and is still going on. 6
Status of data validation (issue of coefficient of variation) • Due to the market structure of many countries, some products have significant differences and variations in both volume and prices. And some of the variations; • Space - geographical Competitiveness within and between location • • Distributor/retail policy, i.e. price variation depending on the location, (product price in same retail shop in up market area is different from a low market area) Seasonality, and others are causes of variation • • Effect of middle men for some imported products, negotiated prices, imported inflation, instability of exchange rates, etc. 7
Status of the calculation of annual average prices Due budget constraints, data collection coverage approach • varied among countries; national, urban areas and capital cities, and cities only. • In addition, due to budget constraints some countries provided data for two quarters out of four. These conditions necessitate some adjustments in calculating the national annual average prices. • Countries that did not meet the requirement, were requested to provide information from Consumer Price Index (CPI) to allow computation of annual average prices. • A detailed note will be provided to the Go on the process 8
National Accounts Activities GDP aggregates; latest year available (2009) including 155 BH • data have been sent to GO – but without the MORES MORES – Most countries in the SADC and COMESA sub- • regions have completed step 2 of the MORES templates. We have received very few submissions from AFRISTAT and • ECOWAS countries. Follow up missions have been planned • Response on Quality Assurance & Exhaustiveness questionnaires has not been good in all the countries South Africa the only country that has submitted completed • MORES for 2011. • Most countries final accounts for 2011 will be available by the end of this month 9
Other Price Surveys (Specific Surveys) • Most SADC and COMESA countries have conducted the surveys and submitted the data especially on Construction, Machinery, Housing, and Compensation of Employees • Challenges in ECOWAS and AFRISTAT countries. International consultants have been hired to validate and • harmonize the data on Construction, Machinery and Equipment • We expect all countries to submit the data by the end of the fourth quarter Intra and inter-country validation to be done in the third and • fourth quarters of this year 10
Time line for data collection • The Dwelling and Housing services survey to be completed during the 3 rd and 4 th quarter of 2012. • Rental survey to be completed even just in capital city • Construction and Equipment Surveys to be completed during the 3 rd and 4 th quarters 2012. Intra and inter country validation to be done by Eric and Jim • • Data entry and validation for Compensation of Government employees to be done country and regional levels respectively Countries expected to complete the Education survey by the end • of the fourth quarter. • Questionnaires on water tariffs to be submitted in the third and fourth quarters 11
Global risk assessment • Eritrea not participating Due to the political events which, took place in Libya, it • is not participating in the program as the political situation is still volatile. Sudan and South Sudan – decision yet to be made on • the computations 12
Upcoming Events • It is envisaged that technical missions will be undertaken to some of the problematic countries to resolve some outstanding issues (October to December 2012) Sub-regional ICP data validation workshops to review • the final quarterly price data and calculate countries’ national annual average prices for Household consumption items, in each sub-region (AMU, ECCAS, ECOWAS, COMESA and SADC) (October to December 2012) 13
Upcoming Events (cont’d) The 3 rd and final regional validation workshop to • review and validate the 2011 national annual average price for Household Consumption survey for all countries [before the agreed final submission date to the GO, possibly early February 2013 ] • Final submission of ICP-Africa 2011 price data (Quarterly and Annual prices) to the GO [ First week of March 2013 ] 14
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