YOUNGS FARM AAWS MODELING May 27, 2016 1 INITIAL MODELING ADWR - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

YOUNG’S FARM AAWS MODELING May 27, 2016 1

INITIAL MODELING ∗ ADWR Sever & Transfer D&O – 651.36 afa ∗ 12 POD wells withdrawing surface water ∗ PrAMA Model at ADWR direction ∗ Run PrAMA Model for 100 yrs ∗ POD wells capable of supplying 651.36 afa for 100 yrs. 2

PrAMA Model Domain 3 3

MODIFICATIONS TO PrAMA MODEL ∗ Update streamflow inputs to include seasonal runoff from multiple tributaries (USGS Basin Characterization Model, BCM) ∗ Head Dependent Boundary at outflow ∗ 100 yr projection of historic 21 yr and 52 yr streamflows and mountain front recharge (MFR) volumes 4

Upper Agua Fria Sub-basin 5 5

Digital Elevation Model 6 6

Stream Delineations Agua Fria River Humboldt Gage 7 7

Watersheds Agua Fria River Humboldt Gage 8 8

BCM RUNOFF AVERAGES Yaeger Canyon 1,430 AFA Grapevine Gulch 640 AFA Agua Fria River Lynx Creek Humboldt Gage 2,190 AFA Green Gulch 270 AFA Chap. Gulch 312 AFA 9 9

Calibration Check: Agua Fria Sub-basin Heads SGC Model PrAMA Model RMSE / Range: RMSE / Range: 5.5% 3.5% 10

Stream Humboldt Gage Flows Flow (cfs) Inflows PrAMA Model SGC Model Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) 11

Stream Humboldt Gage Flows Flow (cfs) Outflows PrAMA Model SGC Model Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) 12

Predicted Stream Flow Original Model SGC Model – 21 yr Historical Runoff and MFR Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) � � � � Historical | Predictive � � � � � � Historical | Predictive � � � � � � 13

Predicted Stream Flow Original Model SGC Model – 52 yr Historical Runoff and MFR Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) � � � Historical | Predictive � � � � � � � Historical | Predictive � � � � � � 14