WORKING GROUP MEETING August 13, 2020
Phase 2 Status Report Scenario Planning • Awaiting Working Group determination on whether adequate differentiation has been achieved • Preparing to populate dashboard as model runs are completed Travel Demand Model • Fine tuning technology template • Ran model with and without technology for baseline and greater growth scenarios Website • Up to date with minutes, agendas, other documents Schedule • Early September 2020 completion 2
Phase 2 Status Report (Cont.) Deliverables • Scenario Planning Methodology White Paper – Complete • Memo Summarizing Economic Trends and Opportunities – Complete • Memo Summarizing Travel Behavior Data Review – Late August • Memo Summarizing Travel Demand Model Evaluation – Late August • Tech Memo on Drivers, Spatial Assumptions, and Travel Parameters – Complete • Tech Memo on Performance Measures – Complete • Technical Guide on Scenario Evaluation – Early-September 3
Phase 3 Status Report Task 1 – Engagement • Uploading agendas, minutes, webinars, and reports to website Task 2 – Preliminary Alternatives • No activity Task 3 – Determination of Candidate Alternatives • No activity Task 4 – Scenario Planning • Nearing completion of VISSIM and FREEVAL analysis for existing condition 4
Phase 3 Status Report (Cont.) Schedule • September 2022 Major Deliverables • Summary of Mandated Preliminary Segments - Complete • Updated Cost Estimates for Mandated Preliminary Alternatives - Complete • Summary of Candidate Alternatives - TBD • Tech Memo on Microsimulation Analysis – TBD • Scenario Planning Report – TBD • Engagement Summary Report – TBD • Study Report - TBD 5
SCENARIO PLANNING RECAP 6
Objectives Today Confirm that the current Greater Growth forecasts provide adequate differentiation between the three Greater Growth scenarios • Recap the land use results shared in the spring • Review the new travel demand model results What are we looking for? • Confirm the model results “tell the story” of the scenario narratives? • Will the scenarios provide a strong test of alternative, plausible futures for transportation investments? • Keep in mind the study will test every candidate alternative against all the scenarios to see which proposals are effective in multiple scenarios 7
Exploratory Planning – Preparing for Uncertainty 8
Scenario Planning Process Potential futures organized into Transportation Alternatives tested Gives the Ability to make Informed Planning in the context of alternative Land Use Scenarios against each Scenario Decisions based on Testing Results future uncertainty Suburban Results for each ? Transportation Alternative Water Urban Travel Economic Vision, Scenario Control Land Use Testing Demand Modeling Goals & Narratives Totals Modeling Modeling Objectives Transportation Alternatives Where we are in the Scenario Planning Process 9
Exploratory Scenario Planning Framework Drivers Economic, Lifestyle/Demographic, Technology, Environment Drivers organized into three Greater Growth Scenarios Scenarios with an equal amount of additional employment and population growth in each. Control totals , and assumptions about the Inputs drivers, translated through “ Levers” in the land use and travel demand models. Performance Measures , based on the study Outcomes Goals and Objectives and produced by the land use, travel demand, and economic models 10
Scenario Narratives Greater Growth on the Greater Growth in Urban Greater Suburban/Greenfield Water Centers Growth Growth is suburban/ exurban, Significant economic Growth in water-oriented activity. but growth includes walkable diversification. Low space Port of Virginia becomes even mixed-use centers. Port of requirements per job. Large role more competitive with freight Virginia becomes even more for “digital port.” New more multimodal. More dispersed competitive. “Digital port” brings professionals prefer to live/work housing locations. Moderate additional jobs. Housing is more in urban settings. High level of assumptions for CAV adoption and suburban. High level of AV CV adoption and low auto network adaptation. adoption and network ownership/high TNC mode. adaptation. W H A T T H E S E W I L L H E L P U S T E S T Test more urban and multimodal Test greater cross-harbor travel in Test more overall regional travel. travel patterns. particular. NOTE: Sea Level Rise assumed as 3 ft. in all Scenarios 11
Greater Growth Control Totals Baseline & Greater Growth Baseline & Greater Growth Baseline & Greater Growth Agreed on 16% employment Forecast Concept Forecast Concept Forecast Concept Regional Regional Regional Population/ Population/ Population/ growth from 2015-2045 Employment Employment Employment • Additional 82,972 jobs Greater Greater Greater Growth Growth Growth Greater Greater Forecast Forecast Forecast Growth Growth HRPDC provided population Allocation Allocation Baseline Baseline Baseline Forecast Forecast Forecast growth control total using regional REMI model • Additional 110,460 population 2015 2015 2015 2045 2045 2045 Growth Rates Employment Population 2015-2045 7.90% 17.29% Greater Growth 7.51% 5.48% 12
Objectives and Performance Measures Objectives Performance Measures LAND USE & DEVELOPMENT Percent of population in multi-family housing ECONOMIC VITALITY Percent of growth near key destinations Percent of growth near transit stops Percent of growth in urban place types Support Percent of growth on formerly undeveloped land (per 2016 Land Cover Data) Support efficient freight Support accessibility for Percent of growth near flood-prone areas regional growth and movement tourism (Change in) cost of emissions productivity Ratio of user costs for low income travelers to all user costs (ratio of savings) SUSTAINABILITY: EQUITY, ECONOMIC (Change in) Lost productivity from delay (Economic impact of change in) Labor market accessibility COMMUNITY & ENVIRONMENTAL Performance on the freight network - total delay + spatial results (Change in) Percent of freight traffic on secondary streets - total + spatial Improve the TRANSPORTATION NETWORK sustainability of Minimize the (Change in) Delay on cross-harbor trips [time and dollar value] Ensure that mobility communities through environmental impact of (Change in) Circuity of cross-harbor trips benefits positively affect (Change in) Reliability for cross-harbor trips [time and dollar value] increased housing choice future growth and low income residents (Change in) Cross-harbor accessibility and reduced auto- transportation (Change in) Regional delay [total + spatial] dependency System reliability (Change in) User cost CONNECTIVITY & ACCESSIBILITY Cost of forecasted crashes (Change in) Transportation network impact from flood-prone conditions [e.g., delay, trip length, and/or circuity] ACCESSIBILITY & TRAVEL MODE Improve connectivity and (Change in) Multimodal accessibility to jobs Improve connectivity and Reduce delay and reliability between the (Change in) Accessibility index by mode access for all improve travel efficiency Peninsula and Southside Performance of the transit-serving roadway network [i.e., average speed] (Change in) Mode share index (Change in) Accessibility to major tourist attractions SAFETY, RESILIENCY & INNOVATION (Change in) Transit ridership Percent of jobs/pop within (15 min) drive time to airport or Amtrak station Low income household access to employment TECHNOLOGY Consider the impacts of Improve safety through a Percent of trips by automated vehicles Make investments that technology on system more adaptive (Change in) Percent of travel using facilities with adaptive technologies [e.g., V2I, ITS] improve flood resiliency demand and Reliability enhancement from technology 13 transportation network performance Induced trip demand from technology
Model Integration Land Use Model Land Use Indicators Travel Demand Model Transportation Indicators STUDY DASHBOARD TREDIS Model Economic Indicators 14
LAND USE MODELING 15
Virtual Present & Virtual Future Virtual Present (2015) Virtual Future (2045) 16
No Build Areas • Water • Wetland • Parks & Recreation Areas 17
Land Use Modeling for Greater Growth Scenarios • 2045 land use map (place types and locations) was validated by localities (based on each locality’s Comprehensive Plan) • Differentiation in growth allocations for each scenario was achieved through: • Using Suitability Factors to guide growth spatially CAPACITY SUITABILITY GROWTH • A separate suitability map and factors ALLOCATOR were developed based on each scenario narrative 18
Land Use Modeling for Greater Growth Scenarios Growth CAPACITY SUITABILITY Allocator GROWTH ALLOCATOR Suitability acts as a magnet for growth Additional capacity for growth Total Capacity in the Place Type Amount of growth in the 2045 Baseline 19
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