Workforce modelling simulation driven collaboration UK System - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Workforce modelling – simulation driven collaboration UK System Dynamics Chapter April 2014 The Whole Systems Partnership 1

Overview An introduction to the Workforce Modelling Collaborative (PL); Group task – making commissioning decisions using the modelling tool (PL/DL); Collaboration – the technical challenge and practical solution (ST); Group task 2 – using the collaborative portal (DL/PL); Feedback and discussion. The Whole Systems Partnership 2

The Health Education England Mandate “ The Secretary of State for Health has a statutory duty to ensure that an effective education and training system is in place for the NHS and public health system. Health Education England has been established to support that duty. Health Education England, with the networks of employers working through Local Education and Training Boards, will ensure a nationally coherent system is in place to develop the right people with the right skills and the right values .” The Whole Systems Partnership 3

Local Education & Training Boards Thirteen regional bodies – arms length organisations of Health Education England: The Whole Systems Partnership 4

The workforce modelling collaborative (WMC) Objective: to develop and share systems models that support LETBs in their role to commission the training of medical, nursing and other professional training. Means: n Clinical engagement including model conceptualisation, confirm and challenge; n The provision of training and coaching support to senior analysts and strategic decision makers; n The sharing of models across the collaborative for data assurance and benchmarking; n To contribute to national discussion about the number and distribution of training provision. The Whole Systems Partnership 5

Members Yorkshire & Humber North West (October 2012) (April 2013) East Midlands (October 2012) Thames Valley (October 2013) East of England (April 2013) South West (April 2014) Kent, Surrey & Sussex (April 2013) Wessex (October 2013) NCE London (October 2013) NW London South London (April 2014) (April 2014) The Whole Systems Partnership 6

Model development Each of the models go through a development cycle of roughly 3-4 months: 2 Meeting with a lead clinician: • Demonstrate approach; 1 Preliminary intelligence • Confirm & challenge early gathering: findings; • Training pathway; Production of an initial • Identify key distinctives. • Key challenges; set of presentation • Review of literature (cfwi/ material summarising colleges etc) initial findings Develop prototype of model and gather initial 3 Meeting with a lead data to populate this Refine model and clinician: publish initial report for • Demonstrate model; first LETB • Validate assumptions; • Identify learning. The Whole Systems Partnership 7

Group task 1 An introduction to the Radiology model The Whole Systems Partnership 8

Overview of Radiology training pathway Whilst theoretically Independent there are routes out Sector of training this is very rare in the case of radiology CCT for ST 1-3 ST 4-5 Clinical (3yrs) (2yrs) Radiology NHS Consultant workforce Two main routes: either from F1/2 or after ST1/2 in General Medicine CCT for ST 4-6 or Surgery Interventional (3yrs) Radiology The Whole Systems Partnership 9

Key messages from initial clinical input There is a feminisation of the workforce to take into account; There are minimal or no career breaks and only a small number of breaks for pregnancy; There are few inter-deanery transfers; Clinical Radiologist workforce should be planned in line with Radiographers – some skills development (1yr training) can enhance radiographer roles; A private sector estimated at c.15-20% of total capacity eases peaks and troughs in demand. The Whole Systems Partnership 10

Key messages from initial clinical input – demand side challenges Increasing need for OOH/24-7 working; Increase in GP open access especially for MRI; Clinical Radiology is accreting an increasing range of procedures in most specialities but particularly in vascular surgery, oncology (tumour ablation and targeted therapy), gastroenterology (biliary intervention), obstetrics (stopping bleeding) and general and specialist surgery (e.g. Drainage and many other procedures); CT/MR in particular are critical in achieving reduced hospital length of stay and preventing admission or outpatient referral (currently growing at c.20% a year). The Whole Systems Partnership 11

Commissioning decisions You might decide to fill any gaps by importing Radiologists as they complete training elsewhere This needs to be switched on for the decisions about 2014 You can change to 2016 to take effect. the max or min that you think is reasonable Your decision about training numbers are input here. March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 12

Other assumptions Is the feminisation of the workforce Is the retirement having an impact age increasing? on participation rates of time to completion of training? March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 13

The interface (nested outputs) ST1 starts Consultants in post v’s need for consultants Number in training CCTs produced Oversupply Total FTE workforce March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 14

Your group task……….. You have been assigned to a fictitious location where the systems model for deciding on recruitment levels for trainee Radiologists has been calibrated; Familiarise yourself with your model and consider the assumptions you wish to make to inform your decision (using the worksheet provided); Run some scenarios until you are happy with your decision; Save this version for benchmarking. The Whole Systems Partnership 15

Collaboration Developing a collaborative web environment The Whole Systems Partnership 16

We all (try to) collaborate The modeller collaborates with the stakeholder n Meetings are scheduled, visits take place, models are built, results are shared Stakeholders collaborate with other stakeholders n Meetings are scheduled, visits take place, results are shared Or do they? n Meetings get cancelled/delayed/rearranged (x people involved!) n Is that the correct version of the model? n Do I have the right (version) of the software? n Do I have the right (version) of the data? The Whole Systems Partnership 17

Can technology help? Many of us collaborate with each other socially via technology Very often what we take for granted is difficult to do in a M&S project Cloud-based simulation questionnaire is capturing a demand profile Isee Systems made this a little easier with the ability to share models online with NetSim However this had limitations that we addressed in the joint WSP/Brunel KTP The Whole Systems Partnership 18

Collaborative environment Web-­‑based ¡Environment Output ¡Analysis/ Data ¡Input Simulator Benchmarking Results Model Data The Whole Systems Partnership 19

May 2011 The Whole Systems Partnership 20

May 2011 The Whole Systems Partnership 21

Group task 2 Using the Collaborative environment/outputs to improve decision making The Whole Systems Partnership 22

Your group task……….. Review your decision in terms of the outcomes compared to other areas; Identify questions you might ask of other areas to understand how they have arrived at their saved scenario; Consult with others………………. Would you now change the decision you made in the light of this discussion? The Whole Systems Partnership 23

Discussion The Whole Systems Partnership 24