Whos moving in? out? Population dynamics in Charlotte Rebecca - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Who’s moving in? out? Population dynamics in Charlotte Rebecca Tippett, PhD Image Source: John Ashley, Wikimedia Commons

109 average daily growth of Charlotte metro from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area 1 million residents in 2015 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area 2.4 million residents in 2015 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

381 metro areas +4.9% population growth 2010-15 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

53 with population >1M +5.6% population growth 2010-15 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

13 large (1M+) metros with growth>8.2% +10.7% population growth 2010-15 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte 9 th fastest growing large (1M+) metro Population growth rate, 2010-2015 16.6% 12.7% 12.4% 11.8% 11.3% 10.6% 10.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.1% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% Las Vegas Oklahoma Seattle Phoenix Charlotte Nashville Dallas Denver San Orlando Houston Raleigh Austin City Antonio Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Net migration main driver of growth across top metros Components of population change, 2010-2015 Net Migration Natural Increase Orlando Austin Charlotte Nashville Raleigh San Antonio Denver Seattle Las Vegas Oklahoma City Houston Phoenix Dallas 0% 50% 100% Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Domestic migration 50% or more of growth in 6 metros Components of population change, 2010-2015 Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Increase Orlando Austin Charlotte Nashville Raleigh San Antonio Denver Seattle Las Vegas Oklahoma City Houston Phoenix Dallas 0% 50% 100% Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Population growth uneven across Charlotte metro Population growth rate, 2010-2015 Metro growth = 9.4% Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Net migration main driver of county growth (or loss) Net migration share of population change, 2010-2015 100% 90% 87% 81% 75% 73% 73% 70% 65% 60% Mecklenburg Rowan Union Gaston Cabarrus York Iredell Lincoln Lancaster Chester Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

How many net migrants did Charlotte MSA gain between 2014-15? a) 19,665 IRS migration statistics b) 33,756 Census population estimates c) 34,448 American Community Survey d) 37,558 Census population estimates Net Migration + “Residual”

123K +268K 89K moved in internal moves moved out Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Who moves?

Age structure of movers similar, regardless of destination 16% In-Migrants Out-Migrants Internal Movers 14% 12% up ant Group 10% grant 8% are of Migr 6% Shar 4% 2% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Age Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Young adults (18-34) are most likely movers Young adult share by migration status, 2012-14 18-24 25-34 49% 45% 40% 20% 23% 24% 20% 28% 12% 22% 16% 7% Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

89K moved out Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

123K moved in Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte is an employment destination Net migration by age, 2000-2010 60,000 MSA Mecklenburg 50,000 40,000 er of People 30,000 Number 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Age Age Source: Winkler et al., 2013

40% of in-migrants from other states moved for a job Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS

47% of in-migrants (25-64) have a BA/BS or more Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Where do individuals move from? 25% 10% 6% 41% of in-migrants to Charlotte Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

But what about all those… ?

7% move from another country Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Top 3?

Top 3 Sending Countries Average annual arrivals 430 545 China Mexico 1,670 India Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Not a PUMA Image Source: Incacity, Flickr

PUMAs Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Half of in-migration is to Mecklenburg Share of metro in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

New arrivals are most concentrated in Charlotte city limits In-migrants as share of PUMA population 1 and older, 2012-14 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Reminder: Young adults (18-34) are most likely movers Young adult share by migration status, 2012-14 18-24 25-34 49% 45% 40% 20% 23% 24% 20% 28% 12% 22% 16% 7% Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

…and they are concentrated in Mecklenburg, Rowan Young adult (18-34) share of in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Reflecting age, in-migrants less likely to own home, have family Share of households with selected characteristics by migration status, 2012-14 Living in Charlotte 1 year ago In-migrants 66% 51% 42% 40% 29% 22% Own Home (HH) Married Have children Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Homeownership higher outside central city, but still below 66% Homeownership rate of in-migrant households by PUMA, 2012-14 66% among non-in- migrant households Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

4.6% of in-migrants live in large apartment complexes Share of in-migrant households living in apartment complexes with >50 units by PUMA, 2012-14 1.2% among non-in- migrant households Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Married in-migrants more likely in Union, York, and Iredell Share of married in-migrant household by PUMA, 2012-14 51% among non-in- migrant households Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Presence of children reflects different household structures Share of in-migrant households with children by PUMA, 2012-14 42% among non-in- migrant households Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

+268K internal moves Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau

83% of internal moves are within the same county Source: 2015 ACS

Intra-county moves: 22% for cheaper housing 18% for better housing or neighborhood Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS

Net out-flows from Mecklenburg?

Net out-flows from Mecklenburg to neighbors Source: 2013-14 IRS SOI

Neighboring counties are family suburb destinations Net migration by age, 2000-2010 9,000 Cabarrus Union York 8,000 7,000 6,000 er of People 5,000 Number 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Age Age Source: Winkler et al., 2013

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