What You Can Do to Influence Minimum Wage in Alberta MAY 12, 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What You Can Do to Influence Minimum Wage in Alberta MAY 12, 2016

Agenda  Introduction  Public opinion research: What Albertans and servers are saying and thinking  Restaurants Canada Activities and Outreach  Political Update: Current challenges and how it impacts MW decision  Communications Campaign  Feedback and Questions  Wrap-up

Advisory Com m ittee that m eets w eekly  7-Eleven Canada  McDonald’s Restaurants of Canada  Boston Pizza  Moxie’s Classic Grill  CRAFT Beer Market  O’Brien’s Pub  Humpty’s Family  Red Piano Bistro & Restaurant Dueling Piano Bar  Hudson’s Canadian  Tim Hortons Tap House  The Marc Restaurant  YUM! Brands Group

Key Minim um W age Objectives  Postpone minimum wage increases until economy improves  Retain and freeze liquor server wage  Introduce youth wage

Raising the Minim um W age in Alberta: Now is Not the Tim e Public Opinion Research Sum m ary

Methodology 1 . Quantitative . Online surveys with 750 Albertans, January 9-16, 2016. 1 . Qualitative . Four focus group sessions January 25-27, with servers (Calgary), 3 general public sessions in Edmonton and Red Deer. 1 . Ongoing Monitoring. Social media monitoring and analysis of Alberta government and minimum wage discussions in media and online.

Figure 1 Important Issues Facing Alberta “What do you think are the most important issues facing Alberta today?” MULTIPLE REPSONSES ACCEPTED 66% The economy Price of oil 48% 45% Jobs 22% Healthcare Types of Issues: Economic 100+% 21% Politics/leaders Social 32% Environmental 18% Other 15% 11% Environment Education 10% 8% Bill 6/Farm Safety Social issues mentioned Minimum Wage (7%) by age 7% Climate Change by region: groups, region: • Edmonton (40%) • 18-34 (10%) Edmonton (6%) • Calgary (25%) • 35-54 (5%) Calgary (9%) 7% Minimum Wage • Other Alberta (33%) • 55+ (6%) Other AB (7%) Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Figure 9 Raising Minimum Wage Yes, Just not Now Due to Economic Concerns “For each claim or statement, how much do you agree or disagree? Is that strongly or somewhat? Disagree Agree Raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2018 Somewhat Strongly Strongly Somewhat Support raising Alberta’s Broad 55% 40% 23% 32% 18% 22% minimum wage to $15/hour Conceptual Unsure 5% Support Increase of 50% in 3 years is too much for businesses 61% 13% 33% 28% 19% 32% to handle Unsure 5% But Most MW increase should be Albertans delayed until the economy 29% 31% 60% Seek a 19% 14% 33% improves Delay due Unsure 5% to Economy Raising MW too quickly will 26% 31% 57% 22% 12% 34% delay economic recovery Unsure 5% Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Figure 16 Current Industry Workers Aware of Impacts “Do you currently or have you ever worked at a restaurant or bar, or do you know someone who does? ” Server Wage Differential Currently 6% “Servers don’t need minimum work in wage because they make a lot industry of money from tips” : • 60% of industry people agree • 50% of general public agree Once Prices Will Rise worked in 43% industry “I am willing to pay more at a restaurant to support minimum wage increases” : Know • 47% of industry people agree someone • 31% of general public agree who 52% currently works in Service Will Suffer industry “Service at restaurants will Know decline if minimum wage is someone increased” : 53% who once • 48% of industry people agree worked in • 37% of general public industry Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Timing and Unintended Consequences Timing “It’s a big jump in terms of the dollars … how can they do this when the economy is so bad?” “How can we afford this? When I started working four years ago, oil was over $100 a barrel. Now it’s $30.” Servers First Time Job Seekers “I definitely agree there should be an index. A 15-year-old doesn’t need $15 per hour.” “A $15-year-old can make $7-$8 an hour because he’s living at home and has all his expenses paid. There’s no reason to make it applicable to everyone.” General Public Impact on Servers and Restaurant Workers “If food prices go up, I won’t pay tips.” “And with higher costs and higher price of food, prices will go up in restaurants.” “They will go to automation.” “You don’t do it for economics; you do it for politics. You do it to make an ideological statement. But the economy right now makes it a hard sell.” Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Figure 18 After Discussion, Opposition Increases to Idea of Raising Minimum Wage “Now that you have considered more statements related to a minimum wage increase in Alberta, has your opinion of the NDP commitment to raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2018 changed? Are you now?” Unsure, 5% 50% 45% Opposed, Support, 40% 55% Opposed Supportive 62% Unchanged 24% More 14% More or Unsure Opposed Supportive Net -10% Shift Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Research Summary -Attitudes Toward Raising the Minimum Wage-  Albertans support the concept of raising the minimum wage but they have deep reservations due to:  Business decline at restaurants  Increasing minimum wage will make a bad situation worse  50% increase in 3 years is too much too fast for most people  Servers see many problems such as:  Decreased hours and increased responsibilities for the extra wage  Resentment among other employees who may have slowly made wage gains  An increase in menu prices, which may lead to fewer customers and lower tips  Many people who think raising minimum wage is a good idea, but now is not the time to do it Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016

Restaurants Canada Activities and Outreach  Industry Impact Research  Academic Research  Messaging Documents  Meetings with MLAs, Ministers, Mayors, stakeholders

I ndustry I m pact Research The actions of Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely restaurant Very unlikely Not sure / I don't know 2% 2% operators if Increase prices 2% 89% 5% m inim um 3% 2% w age is 2% Decrease labour hours 78% 15% increased to Layoff staff $ 1 5 / hour 49% 25% 14% 7% 5% Explore self service solutions like 27% 28% 13% 18% 13% touch pads Implement a no-tip policy 14% 11% 18% 32% 25% Close your current business 7% 22% 25% 31% 16% 2% Open a new restaurant / bar 9% 77% 10% 2%

Academ ic Research

Messaging Docum ents  Meeting Guide  Qs and As  Leave Behind for Politicians  State of the Industry  International Comparisons  Comprehensive Submission

Meetings w ith MLAs, Ministers, Mayors, Stakeholders  7 NDP MLAs  Minister of Labour  Senior departmental officials including the Deputy Minister of Labour and ADMs at both Finance and Economic Development  Calgary Mayor Nenshi  Edmonton Mayor's Chief of Staff and policy advisor  Numerous stakeholder groups including; CFIB, Alberta Chamber of Commerce, Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, Edmonton Economic Development, Calgary Downtown BIA, the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association (AUMA), plus meetings with the Alberta Coalition on Employment and the Economy (includes 15 business associations)  NDP Caucus Communications Director  NDP MLA tourism Industry reception

Political Considerations for Cam paign  First year in power ended May 5 2016  Probation period is over . No more “free passes” or excuses that “the government is still new”, or “finding its way”  “I t’s the econom y”: the “jobs budget” aims to put people back to work. Anything that has the opposite effect (reduced hours or a cut in positions) will jeopardize 2016 budget  Key goals for the NDP government are: • New pipelines; • Climate change reduction goals; • Putting Albertans back to work again. Political Analysis May 2 0 1 6

Political Update: May 2 0 1 6  NDP w in in 2 0 1 5 a rejection of status quo solutions  Split on the right remains and may grow stronger  Fiscal realities will restrict choices 2017-2018  Choices and conflicting trade-offs: • Electoral base want promises kept • Interest and business groups calling for moderation  Rachel Notley is the key asset of the Alberta NDP: • Fort McMurray fire Political Analysis May 2 0 1 6

Developing a Com m unications Cam paign

The Situation: The Econom y and the Minim um W age The econom y: Jobs are “Desperate being Lost Tim es” Spending Willing to Personal Saving Less Eating Delay I m pact More Out Goals Desired Stimulate Be Delay Min Create Governm ent the Pragmatic Wage Jobs Economy and Patient Increases Priorities “It will put small businesses out of business. An incremental raise can be tolerated, but not $5 an hour. It’s taking place over too short a time period. It should have been stretched.” Com m unications Strategy