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What They Never Told You About Innovation Steve Vinoski Architect, Basho Technologies GOTO Amsterdam 13 October 2011 @stevevinoski http://steve.vinoski.net/ Thursday, October 13, 11 1 Career Insights Thursday, October 13, 11 2

  1. What They Never Told You About Innovation Steve Vinoski Architect, Basho Technologies GOTO Amsterdam 13 October 2011 @stevevinoski http://steve.vinoski.net/ Thursday, October 13, 11 1

  2. Career Insights Thursday, October 13, 11 2

  3. Integrated Circuit Testing Thursday, October 13, 11 3

  4. Engineering Workstation Boot ROMs and Diagnostics Thursday, October 13, 11 4

  5. Distributed Object Computing Thursday, October 13, 11 5

  6. Middleware and Enterprise Integration Thursday, October 13, 11 6

  7. Video Delivery for Cable and Internet Thursday, October 13, 11 7

  8. Distributed Database Thursday, October 13, 11 8

  9. Failures Thursday, October 13, 11 9

  10. Late 1980s: HP Acquired Apollo Computer Thursday, October 13, 11 10

  11. Early 1990s: Several Unsuccessful CORBA Projects Thursday, October 13, 11 11

  12. Late 1990s: Next-Generation Orbix Delays Thursday, October 13, 11 12

  13. Around 2000: M&A Failures Thursday, October 13, 11 13

  14. Mid 2000s: Failure to Adopt New Technologies Thursday, October 13, 11 14

  15. Late 2000s: Missed Market Thursday, October 13, 11 15

  16. Why All These Failures? Thursday, October 13, 11 16

  17. Apollo: Marketing Failure Thursday, October 13, 11 17

  18. Early CORBA Failures: Company Politics Thursday, October 13, 11 18

  19. Next-Gen Orbix Delays: Might Hurt Sales Thursday, October 13, 11 19

  20. M&A Failures: Cultural Issues Thursday, October 13, 11 20

  21. But What Were the Real Reasons for These Failures? Thursday, October 13, 11 21

  22. 2004, New Role: Innovation Thursday, October 13, 11 22

  23. Technology Adoption Thursday, October 13, 11 23

  24. Hard Disk Capacity 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 24

  25. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n i - 4 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 24

  26. } y g o l o n h Sustaining c e t e v i r d innovations h c Hard Disk Capacity n i - 4 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 24

  27. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n i - 4 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 25

  28. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 25

  29. Hard Disk Capacity 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 26

  30. Hard Disk Capacity 8-inch drive technology 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 26

  31. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 26

  32. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 26

  33. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 27

  34. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r Disruption! d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 27

  35. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  36. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 5.25-inch drives 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  37. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 5.25-inch drives t e k r a m C P n i d n a m e D 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  38. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Disruption! Demand in minicomputer market 5.25-inch drives t e k r a m C P n i d n a m e D 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  39. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 5.25-inch drives t e k r a m C P n i d n a m e D 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  40. y g o l o n h c e t e v i r d h c Hard Disk Capacity n Demand in mainframe market i - 4 1 8-inch drive technology Demand in minicomputer market 5.25-inch drives t e k r a m C P n i d n a 3.5-inch drives, m e D 1.8-inch drives... 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” C. Christensen Thursday, October 13, 11 28

  41. The Innovator’s Dilemma Thursday, October 13, 11 29

  42. 1. Technology Gains Traction with Customers Thursday, October 13, 11 30

  43. 2. Sustaining Innovations Meet Customer Demands Thursday, October 13, 11 31

  44. 3. New But Inferior Technology Initially Targets a Different Segment Thursday, October 13, 11 32

  45. 4. Incumbents Ignore the Inferior Technology Thursday, October 13, 11 33

  46. 5. Inferior Technology Moves Up- Market Via Sustaining Innovations Thursday, October 13, 11 34

  47. 6. New Technology, No Longer Inferior, Disrupts the Incumbent’s Market Thursday, October 13, 11 35

  48. 7. Incumbent Tries To React, But It’s Too Late Thursday, October 13, 11 36

  49. The Innovator’s Dilemma Thursday, October 13, 11 37

  50. So, What Were the Real Reasons for Those Failures? Thursday, October 13, 11 38

  51. Apollo: Marketing Failure Thursday, October 13, 11 39

  52. NOT REALLY Apollo: Marketing Failure Thursday, October 13, 11 39

  53. Sun Disrupted Apollo Thursday, October 13, 11 40

  54. Early CORBA Failures: Company Politics Thursday, October 13, 11 41

  55. WRONG Early CORBA Failures: Company Politics Thursday, October 13, 11 41

  56. Unwilling to Engage in a New Market Thursday, October 13, 11 42

  57. “As soon as management mentality overwhelms leadership mentality, regardless of company size, the pull of the past begins.” —Tweeted by Geoffrey Moore (10 Oct 2011) Thursday, October 13, 11 43

  58. Technology Adoption Life Cycle time I E E L L n a a a a n t g r r o l e l g y y v a M a A M r t d a d a o j s o j r o o p s r r t i i t e t y r y s Thursday, October 13, 11 44

  59. Technology Adoption Life Cycle The Chasm Mainstream Early Market Market time I E E L L n a a a a n t g r r o l e l g y y v a M a A M r t d a d a o j s o j r o o p s r r t i i t e t y r y s see Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm, for more details Thursday, October 13, 11 45

  60. Next-Gen Orbix Delays: Might Hurt Sales Thursday, October 13, 11 46

  61. NOT QUITE Next-Gen Orbix Delays: Might Hurt Sales Thursday, October 13, 11 46

  62. Inability to Address Different Types of Adopters Thursday, October 13, 11 47

  63. M&A Failures: Cultural Issues Thursday, October 13, 11 48

  64. UMM, NO M&A Failures: Cultural Issues Thursday, October 13, 11 48

  65. Assuming Same Customers for all Products Thursday, October 13, 11 49

  66. Mid 2000s: Failure to Adopt New Technologies Thursday, October 13, 11 50

  67. GUESS AGAIN Mid 2000s: Failure to Adopt New Technologies Thursday, October 13, 11 50

  68. Existing Markets Too Lucrative Thursday, October 13, 11 51

  69. Late 2000s: Missed Market Thursday, October 13, 11 52

  70. SORT OF Late 2000s: Missed Market Thursday, October 13, 11 52

  71. Internet Video Disruption Thursday, October 13, 11 53

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