wh y u se ba y esian data anal y sis
play

Wh y u se Ba y esian data anal y sis ? FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 10, 2023 •278 likes •857 views

Wh y u se Ba y esian data anal y sis ? FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R Rasm u s Bth Data Scientist Ba y es is fle x ible 1. Yo u can incl u de information so u rces in addition to the data . 2. Yo u can make an y

  1. Wh y u se Ba y esian data anal y sis ? FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R Rasm u s Bååth Data Scientist

  2. Ba y es is fle x ible 1. Yo u can incl u de information so u rces in addition to the data . 2. Yo u can make an y comparisons bet w een gro u ps or data sets . 3. Yo u can u se the res u lt of a Ba y esian anal y sis to do Decision Anal y sis . 4. Yo u can change the u nderl y ing statistical model . FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  3. Incl u ding information in addition to data Backgro u nd information E x pert opinion Common kno w ledge FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  4. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  5. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  6. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  7. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  8. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  9. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  10. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  11. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  12. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  13. Define an informed prior ! FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R

  14. Yo u'v e changed the prior ! FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R Rasm u s Bååth Data Scientist

  15. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  16. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  17. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  18. Ne x t u p on reasons to u se Ba y esian data anal y sis 1. Yo u can incl u de information so u rces in addition to the data . 2. Yo u can make an y comparisons bet w een gro u ps or datasets . 3. Yo u can u se the res u lt of a Ba y esian anal y sis to do Decision Anal y sis . 4. Yo u can change the u nderl y ing statistical model . FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  19. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  20. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  21. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  22. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  23. Comparing Video and Te x t ads posterior video_prop text_prop 1 0.08 0.10 2 0.10 0.07 3 0.16 0.05 4 0.09 0.05 5 0.18 0.03 6 0.13 0.05 7 0.12 0.10 8 0.10 0.04 9 0.11 0.09 10 0.18 0.05 11 0.12 0.04 12 0.13 0.07 13 0.10 0.13 14 0.15 0.03 15 0.07 0.05 16 0.14 0.09 ... ... ... FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  24. Comparing Video and Te x t ads posterior$prop_diff <- posterior$video_prop - posterior$text_prop posterior video_prop text_prop prop_diff 1 0.08 0.10 -0.02 2 0.10 0.07 0.03 3 0.16 0.05 0.11 4 0.09 0.05 0.04 5 0.18 0.03 0.15 6 0.13 0.05 0.08 7 0.12 0.10 0.02 8 0.10 0.04 0.06 9 0.11 0.09 0.02 10 0.18 0.05 0.13 11 0.12 0.04 0.08 12 0.13 0.07 0.06 13 0.10 0.13 -0.03 14 0.15 0.03 0.11 15 0.07 0.05 0.01 ... ... ... ... FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  25. Ho w does the prop _ diff () distrib u tion look ? FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R

  26. It ' s eas y to compare and contrast ! FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R Rasm u s Bååth Data Scientist

  27. A probabilit y distrib u tion o v er an interesting parameter FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  28. A probabilit y distrib u tion o v er an interesting parameter FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  29. A probabilit y distrib u tion o v er an interesting parameter FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  30. A probabilit y distrib u tion o v er an interesting parameter FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  31. Ne x t u p on reasons to u se Ba y esian data anal y sis 1. Yo u can incl u de information so u rces in addition to the data . 2. Yo u can make an y comparisons bet w een gro u ps or data sets . 3. Yo u can u se the res u lt of a Ba y esian anal y sis to do Decision Anal y sis . 4. Yo u can change the u nderl y ing statistical model . FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  32. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  33. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  34. A small decision anal y sis video_cost <- 0.25 text_cost <- 0.05 visitor_spend <- 2.53 FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  35. video_cost <- 0.25 text_cost <- 0.05 visitor_spend <- 2.53 posterior video_prop text_prop 1 0.08 0.10 2 0.10 0.07 3 0.16 0.05 4 0.09 0.05 5 0.18 0.03 6 0.13 0.05 7 0.12 0.10 8 0.10 0.04 9 0.11 0.09 10 0.18 0.05 11 0.12 0.04 12 0.13 0.07 FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  36. video_cost <- 0.25 text_cost <- 0.05 visitor_spend <- 2.53 posterior$video_profit <- posterior$video_prop * visitor_spend - video_cost posterior video_prop text_prop video_profit 1 0.08 0.10 -0.04 2 0.10 0.07 0.00 3 0.16 0.05 0.15 4 0.09 0.05 -0.02 5 0.18 0.03 0.21 6 0.13 0.05 0.08 7 0.12 0.10 0.06 8 0.10 0.04 0.01 9 0.11 0.09 0.02 10 0.18 0.05 0.21 11 0.12 0.04 0.06 12 0.13 0.07 0.08 FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  37. video_cost <- 0.25 text_cost <- 0.05 visitor_spend <- 2.53 posterior$video_profit <- posterior$video_prop * visitor_spend - video_cost posterior$text_profit <-posterior$text_prop * visitor_spend - text_cost posterior video_prop text_prop video_profit text_profit 1 0.08 0.10 -0.04 0.21 2 0.10 0.07 0.00 0.12 3 0.16 0.05 0.15 0.09 4 0.09 0.05 -0.02 0.08 5 0.18 0.03 0.21 0.02 6 0.13 0.05 0.08 0.09 7 0.12 0.10 0.06 0.20 8 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.05 9 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.17 10 0.18 0.05 0.21 0.09 11 0.12 0.04 0.06 0.05 12 0.13 0.07 0.08 0.12 FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  38. video_cost <- 0.25 text_cost <- 0.05 visitor_spend <- 2.53 posterior$video_profit <- posterior$video_prop * visitor_spend - video_cost posterior$text_profit <-posterior$text_prop * visitor_spend - text_cost posterior$profit_diff <- posterior$video_profit - posterior$text_profit posterior video_prop text_prop video_profit text_profit profit_diff 1 0.08 0.10 -0.04 0.21 -0.26 2 0.10 0.07 0.00 0.12 -0.12 3 0.16 0.05 0.15 0.09 0.07 4 0.09 0.05 -0.02 0.08 -0.10 5 0.18 0.03 0.21 0.02 0.18 6 0.13 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.00 7 0.12 0.10 0.06 0.20 -0.14 8 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.05 -0.04 9 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.17 -0.15 10 0.18 0.05 0.21 0.09 0.12 11 0.12 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.00 12 0.13 0.07 0.08 0.12 -0.04 FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  39. Make a data informed decision ! FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R

  40. Change an y thing and e v er y thing FU N DAME N TAL S OF BAYE SIAN DATA AN ALYSIS IN R Rasm u s Bååth Data Scientist

  41. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  42. FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  43. Ne x t u p on reasons to u se Ba y esian data anal y sis 1. Yo u can incl u de information so u rces in addition to the data . 2. Yo u can make an y comparisons bet w een gro u ps or data sets . 3. Yo u can u se the res u lt of a Ba y esian anal y sis to do Decision Anal y sis . 4. Yo u can change the u nderl y ing statistical model . FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  44. Completel y s w itch o u t the binomial model Wh y? Well , y o u ha v e some ne w data ... A banner ad for y o u r site . Yo u don ' t pa y per v ie w, y o u pa y per da y . A trial res u lted in 19 clicks in a da y Ho w man y dail y site v isits , sho u ld w e e x pect , on a v erage , if w e pa y for this banner ? FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  45. A model for co u nts per da y Split the da y into 1440 min u tes . What proportion of min u tes res u lts in a click on the ad ? FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

  46. A model for co u nts per da y Split the da y into 1440 min u tes . What proportion of min u tes res u lts in a click on the ad ? Split the da y into 86400 seconds . What proportion of seconds res u lts in a click on the ad ? FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS IN R

Recommend

Ba y esian Decon v olution of Seismic Arra y Data for RippleFired Explosions Eric

Ba y esian Decon v olution of Seismic Arra y Data for RippleFired Explosions Eric

Ba y esian Decon v olution of Seismic Arra y Data for RippleFired Explosions Eric A Suess Advisor Professor Rob ert Sh um w a y Outline The Problem Mo del Ba y esian Statistics

421 views • 26 slides
Introd u ction to E x plorator y Data Anal y sis STATISTIC AL TH IN K IN G IN P YTH ON ( PAR T 1

Introd u ction to E x plorator y Data Anal y sis STATISTIC AL TH IN K IN G IN P YTH ON ( PAR T 1

Introd u ction to E x plorator y Data Anal y sis STATISTIC AL TH IN K IN G IN P YTH ON ( PAR T 1 ) J u stin Bois Lect u rer at the California Instit u te of Technolog y E x plorator y data anal y sis The process of organi z ing , plo ing ,

734 views • 45 slides
E x plorator y data anal y sis P R E D IC TIN G C TR W ITH MAC H IN E L E AR N IN G IN P YTH

E x plorator y data anal y sis P R E D IC TIN G C TR W ITH MAC H IN E L E AR N IN G IN P YTH

E x plorator y data anal y sis P R E D IC TIN G C TR W ITH MAC H IN E L E AR N IN G IN P YTH ON Ke v in H u o Instr u ctor A closer look at feat u res int : an integer : 1 , 2 , etc . print(df.columns) float : decimals : 3.02 , 4.56 , etc .

189 views • 18 slides
Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go

Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go

Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go Going ful g full Bay ayes esian an Bayes = Probabilities Hypothesis = Model Bayes Theorem Evidence = data Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof.

688 views • 66 slides
CFA &amp; EFA SU R VE Y AN D ME ASU R E ME N T D E VE L OP ME N T IN R George Mo u nt Data anal

CFA &amp; EFA SU R VE Y AN D ME ASU R E ME N T D E VE L OP ME N T IN R George Mo u nt Data anal

CFA &amp; EFA SU R VE Y AN D ME ASU R E ME N T D E VE L OP ME N T IN R George Mo u nt Data anal y st to the stars CFA and model de v elopment 1 Hinkin , T . R . (1998). A brief t u torial on the de v elopment of meas u res for u se in s u r v e

802 views • 27 slides
F u ndamental Val u ation : Anal yz ing Projections E QU ITY VAL U ATION IN R Cli Ang

F u ndamental Val u ation : Anal yz ing Projections E QU ITY VAL U ATION IN R Cli Ang

F u ndamental Val u ation : Anal yz ing Projections E QU ITY VAL U ATION IN R Cli Ang Senior Vice President , Compass Le x econ Anal yz ing Projections Projections are critical inp u t in disco u nted cash o w anal y sis Garbage - In

261 views • 14 slides
Ba y esian Learning [Read Ch. 6] [Suggested exercises: 6.1, 6.2, 6.6] Ba y es

Ba y esian Learning [Read Ch. 6] [Suggested exercises: 6.1, 6.2, 6.6] Ba y es

Ba y esian Learning [Read Ch. 6] [Suggested exercises: 6.1, 6.2, 6.6] Ba y es Theorem MAP , ML h yp otheses MAP learners Minim um description length principle Ba y es optimal classier

534 views • 50 slides
Where to Begin FE ATU R E E N G IN E E R IN G W ITH P YSPAR K John Hog u e Lead Data Scientist

Where to Begin FE ATU R E E N G IN E E R IN G W ITH P YSPAR K John Hog u e Lead Data Scientist

Where to Begin FE ATU R E E N G IN E E R IN G W ITH P YSPAR K John Hog u e Lead Data Scientist , General Mills Di v ing Straight to Anal y sis Here be Monsters Become y o u r o w n e x pert De ne goals of anal y sis Research y o u r data Be

644 views • 26 slides
Ba y esian Learning Read Ch Suggested exercises

Ba y esian Learning Read Ch Suggested exercises

Ba y esian Learning Read Ch Suggested exercises Ba y es Theorem MAP ML h yp otheses MAP learners Minim um description length principle

910 views • 50 slides
AN ANAL ALYSIS SIS OF OF TR TRAF AFFIC FIC SP SPEEDS IN EDS IN NE NEW W YOR ORK CIT

AN ANAL ALYSIS SIS OF OF TR TRAF AFFIC FIC SP SPEEDS IN EDS IN NE NEW W YOR ORK CIT

AN ANAL ALYSIS SIS OF OF TR TRAF AFFIC FIC SP SPEEDS IN EDS IN NE NEW W YOR ORK CIT ITY Austin Krauza BDA 761 Fall 2015 Problem Statement How can Amazon Web Services be used to conduct analysis of large scale data sets?

397 views • 25 slides
Uni v ariate time series anal y sis VISU AL IZIN G TIME SE R IE S DATA IN R Arna u d Amsellem Q

Uni v ariate time series anal y sis VISU AL IZIN G TIME SE R IE S DATA IN R Arna u d Amsellem Q

Uni v ariate time series anal y sis VISU AL IZIN G TIME SE R IE S DATA IN R Arna u d Amsellem Q u antitati v e Trader and creator of the R Trader blog Uni v ariate time series anal y sis VISUALIZING TIME SERIES DATA IN R Uni v ariate time

296 views • 26 slides
Let ' s talk abo u t o u r feelings SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN R Ted K w artler Data D u de

Let ' s talk abo u t o u r feelings SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN R Ted K w artler Data D u de

Let ' s talk abo u t o u r feelings SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN R Ted K w artler Data D u de Definition : sentiment anal y sis Sentiment anal y sis is the process of e x tracting an a u thor s emotional intent from te x t SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

391 views • 26 slides
Welcome ! BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M Jake Thompson Ps y

Welcome ! BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M Jake Thompson Ps y

Welcome ! BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M Jake Thompson Ps y chometrician , ATLAS , Uni v ersit y of Kansas O v er v ie w 1. Introd u ction to Ba y esian regression 2. C u stomi z ing Ba y esian regression models 3. E

607 views • 23 slides
Welcome ! SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN P YTH ON Violeta Mishe v a Data Scientist What is sentiment

Welcome ! SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN P YTH ON Violeta Mishe v a Data Scientist What is sentiment

Welcome ! SE N TIME N T AN ALYSIS IN P YTH ON Violeta Mishe v a Data Scientist What is sentiment anal y sis ? Sentiment anal y sis is the process of u nderstanding the opinion of an a u thor abo u t a s u bject . SENTIMENT ANALYSIS IN PYTHON

690 views • 26 slides
B u ilding f u nctions to a u tomate anal y sis AN ALYZIN G MAR K E TIN G C AMPAIG N S W ITH

B u ilding f u nctions to a u tomate anal y sis AN ALYZIN G MAR K E TIN G C AMPAIG N S W ITH

B u ilding f u nctions to a u tomate anal y sis AN ALYZIN G MAR K E TIN G C AMPAIG N S W ITH PAN DAS Jill Rosok Data Scientist Wh y b u ild a f u nction ? # Count the subs by referring channel and day retention_total =

306 views • 27 slides
What ' s in a Ba y esian Model ? BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M

What ' s in a Ba y esian Model ? BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M

What ' s in a Ba y esian Model ? BAYE SIAN R E G R E SSION MOD E L IN G W ITH R STAN AR M Jake Thompson Ps y chometrician , ATLAS , Uni v ersit y of Kansas Posterior distrib u tions Posterior distrib u tions sampled in gro u ps called chains

561 views • 28 slides
Vi Visual ualizing ng Data a for Anal Analysis and and Communi unication Anamaria Crisan

Vi Visual ualizing ng Data a for Anal Analysis and and Communi unication Anamaria Crisan

Machine Learning for Precision Public Health: Vi Visual ualizing ng Data a for Anal Analysis and and Communi unication Anamaria Crisan Vanier Canada Scholar &amp; UBC Public Scholar PhD Candidate, Computer Science University of British

958 views • 85 slides
H OW I MPORTANT IS THE E XPANSION OF THE P ANAMA C ANAL TO THE P ORT OF N EW O RLEANS Bruce

H OW I MPORTANT IS THE E XPANSION OF THE P ANAMA C ANAL TO THE P ORT OF N EW O RLEANS Bruce

H OW I MPORTANT IS THE E XPANSION OF THE P ANAMA C ANAL TO THE P ORT OF N EW O RLEANS Bruce Lambert Executive Director, ITTS W ARNING P ANAMA C ANAL E XPANSION Is it needed? Does Louisiana Benefit from the Canal now? Does it

400 views • 36 slides
Shado w price sensiti v it y anal y sis SU P P LY C H AIN AN ALYTIC S IN P YTH ON Aaren St u

Shado w price sensiti v it y anal y sis SU P P LY C H AIN AN ALYTIC S IN P YTH ON Aaren St u

Shado w price sensiti v it y anal y sis SU P P LY C H AIN AN ALYTIC S IN P YTH ON Aaren St u bber eld S u ppl y Chain Anal y tics Mgr . Define shado w price Modeling in iss u es : Inp u t for model constraints are o en estimates Will

744 views • 51 slides
Anal nalys ysis is of Bu Bus s Coll llision ision In Incident idents s Us Usin ing g

Anal nalys ysis is of Bu Bus s Coll llision ision In Incident idents s Us Usin ing g

Anal nalys ysis is of Bu Bus s Coll llision ision In Incident idents s Us Usin ing g Da Data a Dr Driv iven en Tools ols in in De Devel elopi oping ng and and Bu Buil ilding ing a S a Saf afety ty Fi First st Cul

388 views • 15 slides
AN I NT RODUCT I ON T O L AT E NT CL ASS ANAL YSI S F OR PRE VE NT I ON RE SE

AN I NT RODUCT I ON T O L AT E NT CL ASS ANAL YSI S F OR PRE VE NT I ON RE SE

AN I NT RODUCT I ON T O L AT E NT CL ASS ANAL YSI S F OR PRE VE NT I ON RE SE ARCH Be tha ny C. Bra y, Ph.D. T he Me tho do lo g y Ce nte r, Pe nn Sta te me tho do lo g y.psu.e du OVE RVI E W Co nc e ptua l intro

384 views • 16 slides
Anal yz ing y o u r strateg y FIN AN C IAL TR AD IN G IN R Il y a Kipnis Professional Q u

Anal yz ing y o u r strateg y FIN AN C IAL TR AD IN G IN R Il y a Kipnis Professional Q u

Anal yz ing y o u r strateg y FIN AN C IAL TR AD IN G IN R Il y a Kipnis Professional Q u antitati v e Anal y st and R programmer O u r strateg y B uy w hen : 50- da y mo v ing a v erage &gt; 200- da y mo v ing a v erage and d v o &lt; 20 Sell

440 views • 18 slides
Net w ork anal y sis in R : A tid y approach N E TW OR K AN ALYSIS IN TH E TIDYVE R SE Massimo

Net w ork anal y sis in R : A tid y approach N E TW OR K AN ALYSIS IN TH E TIDYVE R SE Massimo

Net w ork anal y sis in R : A tid y approach N E TW OR K AN ALYSIS IN TH E TIDYVE R SE Massimo Franceschet Prof . of Data Science , Uni v ersit y of Udine ( Ital y) NETWORK ANALYSIS IN THE TIDYVERSE NETWORK ANALYSIS IN THE TIDYVERSE NETWORK

654 views • 21 slides
Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go

Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go

Ba Bayesi esian Deep Deep Le Lear arning ning Prof. Leal-Taix and Prof. Niessner 1 Go Going ful g full B Baye yesi sian Bayes = Probabilities Hypothesis = Model Bayes Theorem p ( H | E ) = p ( E | H ) p ( H ) p ( E )

776 views • 61 slides

More recommend