YOUR WATER. YOUR FUTURE. Welcome to CAP’s Annual Water Users Briefing Got Questions or Comments? Send to: questions@cap-az.com DARRIN FRANCOM – DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS, POWER AND ENGINEERING DON CRANDALL – WATER CONTROL MANAGER
Safety Minute The heat seems never-ending! The previous record in Phoenix for the number of days in one year with temperatures of 110 degrees above was 33. Yesterday (Monday) was the 41st day for 2020, and it appears we're going to have several more. Whether at home or at work, be safe out there. If possible, get out of the sun. Stay hydrated. Cover up. Use sunscreen. | PRESENTATION TITLE | DD.MM.YY 2
YOUR WATER. YOUR FUTURE. Annual Water User Briefing Colorado River Update
Water Year 2020 Summary • 2019 Hot, dry fall • “Normal” snowpack • Hot, dry summer • Significant decline in runoff • 2021 Tier Zero Operations 2 | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20
2020 Lake Powell Inflows April unregulated inflow into Lake Powell was at 45% of the historical 30-year average (1981-2010), with May at 66%, June at 54%, and July coming in at 27% of the historical average. 66% 54% The preliminary April-July unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is 3,758 KAF, which is 52% of the historical average. 45% 27% Although the snowpack was tracking 19% fairly closely with historical averages, the 2020 runoff projections are well below average due to dry soil moisture conditions throughout the Basin prior to this winter and warm spring and summer temperatures. |
Powell Pool Elevations - August 2020 24-Month Study 3,700 2021 Equalization Line = 3,659 ' 3,650 Upper Elevation Balancing Tier 3,600 3,575' Powell Pool elevation (ft amsl) EOY 2020 MAX = 3,593.2' 3,550 Mid Elevation Release Tier MOST = 3,591.6' 3,525' MIN = 3,590.8' EOY 2021 3,500 MAX = 3,656' MOST = 3,581' Current Month Lower Elevation Balancing Tier MIN = 3,561.6' 3,450 3,400 Bottom of Lower Elevation Balancing = 3,370' 3,350 12/31/2019 12/30/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 | MAX MOST MIN
Mead Pool Elevations - August 2020 24-Month Study 1,140 EOY 2021 EOY 2020 MAX = 1,083.1' MAX = 1,086.3' MOST = 1,087' MOST = 1,085.3' MIN = 1,067.3' MIN = 1,085' 1,120 MOST "April Adjustment" 1,100 Mead Pool elevation (ft amsl) 1,090' Tier 0 1,080 1,075' Current Month Tier 1 1,060 1,050' Tier 2 1,040 1,025' Tier 3 1,020 12/31/2019 12/30/2020 12/31/2021 | MAX MOST MIN
ENSO Outlook The current ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) probabilistic forecast indicates a slightly greater than 50% probability of an El Niño signal for early Fall 2020 that will shift towards a higher probability of a neutral ENSO signal in Winter 2020-2021 and Spring 2021. The three month outlook for precipitation for September 2020 through November 2020 shows that the Colorado River Basin (especially the Upper Basin) will experience below normal precipitation. Temperatures for the next three months are forecasted to be above normal for the entire United States (with a greater probability of above normal temperatures in the Colorado River Basin). 90 Day Precipitation and Temperature Outlook
2021 – 2022 Outlook • 2021 Tier Zero Operations • Hot, dry fall 2020 • “Normal” inflows required to continue Tier Zero in 2022 • Increasing risks of Tier One in 2022, Tier One/Two in 2023 Fuzzy Horse Index? • Neutral climate signal • Other forecast indicators? Covid Beard Index? 7 | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20
Summary of DCP Contributions Made in Lower Basin and Mexico and Arizona Activities 8 | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20
2020 Lower Basin and Mexico Lake Mead DCP Contributions and ICS Activities • 636 KAF planned Source Type Volume (KAF) contributions and Arizona CAWCD DCP Contribution ICS and Non-ICS 192 conservation in the US ICS and System Lower Basin Other AZ Offset, ICS, and US Conservation 153 California • Approximately 700 KAF MWD ICS 241 IID ICS 2 total contributed and Nevada conserved through SNWA DCP Contribution ICS 8 SNWA ICS ICS 40 DCP Mexico Binational Water Scarcity • Estimated volumes – Contingency Plan Water Reserve 67 actual volumes verified Contribution Total 703 EOY 9 | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20
2021 Lower Basin and Mexico Lake Mead DCP Contributions and ICS Activities • 573 KAF planned Source Type Volume (KAF) contributions and Arizona CAWCD DCP Contribution ICS and Non-ICS 192 conservation in the US ICS and System Lower Basin Other AZ Offset, ICS, and US Conservation 121 California • Approximately 600 KAF MWD ICS 200 IID ICS 2 total contributed and Nevada conserved through SNWA DCP Contribution ICS 8 SNWA ICS ICS 55 DCP Mexico Binational Water Scarcity • Estimated volumes to Contingency Plan Water Reserve 41 be verified EOY 2021 Contribution Total 619 10 | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20
Arizona Lake Mead Contributions – where is it? 2019 2 2020 3, 4 2021 4 Arizona Lake Mead Contribution Volumes ICS 1 Tier 0 Tier 0 DCP Implementation & Related Actions (ac-ft) (ac-ft) (ac-ft) Ag Forbearance 3 Program EC-ICS 24,283 56,968 57,000 Arizona LBDCP CAWCD Compensated Conservation EC-ICS 3,500 3,500 CAWCD Excess Water 5 (Tier 0: 192k ac-ft) 119,942 131,532 131,500 Total 144,225 192,000 192,000 GRIC - Reclamation EC-ICS 100,000 GRIC - AWBA EC-ICS 17,000 33,000 Arizona DCP GRIC 6 Mitigation Offset EC-ICS 50,000 45,000 (400k ac-ft total) CRIT System Conservation 50,000 50,000 Total 117,000 133,000 95,000 FMYN System Conservation 10,000 13,683 Reclamation DCP Total 0 10,000 13,683 CRIT EC-ICS 6,274 3,736 4,685 Additional Arizona MVIDD EC-ICS 6,137 6,778 ICS Creation Total 6,274 9,873 11,463 Bullhead City 306 400 400 Pilot System CRIT 26,805 Conservation FMYN 13,683 Program (PSCP) Total 40,794 400 400 Total Arizona Lake Mead Contributions 308,293 345,273 312,546 https://www.cap- az.com/documents/water- operations/Lake-Mead-Contribution- Summary-Table-2019-2020.pdf | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20 11
Notes 2019 2 2020 3, 4 2021 4 1 ICS Volumes reflect creation Arizona Lake Mead Contribution Volumes ICS 1 Tier 0 Tier 0 volumes contributed to Lake DCP Implementation & Related Actions (ac-ft) (ac-ft) (ac-ft) Mead and do not reflect account balances after losses and Ag Forbearance 3 Program EC-ICS 24,283 56,968 57,000 assessments. CAWCD Compensated Conservation EC-ICS 3,500 3,500 Arizona LBDCP 2 2019 reflects proactive actions CAWCD Excess Water 5 (Tier 0: 192k ac-ft) 119,942 131,532 131,500 prior to DCP execution and full implementation in 2020. Total 144,225 192,000 192,000 3 2020 reflects the first full year of GRIC - Reclamation EC-ICS 100,000 DCP implementation of Lake GRIC - AWBA EC-ICS 17,000 33,000 Arizona DCP Mead contributions and related GRIC 6 Mitigation Offset EC-ICS 50,000 45,000 actions. (400k ac-ft total) CRIT System Conservation 50,000 50,000 4 Values reflect estimated Total 117,000 133,000 95,000 volumes, subject to final accounting. FMYN System Conservation 10,000 13,683 Reclamation DCP 5 Volume will vary based on Total 0 10,000 13,683 available Colorado River water, CRIT EC-ICS 6,274 3,736 4,685 on-river use forecast, and CAP Additional Arizona MVIDD EC-ICS 6,137 6,778 operations. ICS Creation Total 6,274 9,873 11,463 6 Efforts by GRIC to fully utilize the Arizona ICS Accumulation Bullhead City 306 400 400 Pilot System Capacity in 2021 CRIT 26,805 Conservation FMYN 13,683 Program (PSCP) Total 40,794 400 400 Total Arizona Lake Mead Contributions 308,293 345,273 312,546 |
Arizona DCP Contributions and ICS • From 2019 through projections for 2021, efforts in Arizona alone plan to save almost 1 MAF in Lake Mead • Arizona is on-track to fully utilize its ICS Accumulation Capacity by the end of 2021 • ICS accumulation for the Lower Basin States at the end of 2020 will be 2.7 MAF • Pre-DCP (~2014) and DCP and other related efforts have helped to temporarily ‘bend the curve’ and avoid going into Tier 1 or greater shortages to date | COLORADO RIVER UPDATE | 08.26.20 13
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