Webinar: How to Lower inputs Take II Chris Leslie, Georgina Key, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

18 November 2020 Webinar: How to Lower inputs – Take II Chris Leslie, Georgina Key, Mark Topliff, AHDB The Strategic Cereal Farm Trio; David, Rob and Brian

Housekeeping @AHDB_Scot

Reducing Inputs Recent trends in input prices and cost of production Mark Topliff AHDB Farm Economics

Recent input price trends Possible impacts on future prices Seeds Fuel Fertilisers Fungicides Herbicides 180 • Whether there’s a trade deal with the EU 160 • Additional border checks • Delays at ports Index (2015 = 100) • 140 Exchange rate 120 100 80 60 Month-Year Source: Defra Agricultural Price Index of agricultural inputs in the UK; 2015=100

Harvest 2020 cost of production estimate 2018* 2019* 2020 estimated 1,293 1,291 1,257 Winter wheat (£/ha) 145 132 156 Winter wheat (£/t) 1,022 1,041 1,001 Spring barley (£/ha) 182 152 156 Spring barley (£/t) 1,174 1,182 1,138 Winter OSR (£/ha) 335 345 372 Winter OSR (£/t) Full economic costs are the total costs of producing the crop including depreciation and value for unpaid labour, rent and finances . *Based on average full economic results from AHDB Farmbench. Conventional crops only.

Reducing Inputs Technology – “The edge of what we know is the beginning of what's possible"

Reducing Inputs Crop Nutrition Management – a horticultural perspective Georgina Key, AHDB

Analysis • Irrigation water – 4 samples/ year: £100-150 • Substrate/soil – 3 analyses/ 18 months: £360 • Nutrient solution – can be included in water analysis • Leaf/sap – 12 samples/ 18 months: £820-870

Analysis • Irrigation water – 4 samples/ £150 year: £100-150 • Substrate/soil – 3 analyses/ 18 months: £360 • Nutrient solution – can be included in water analysis • Leaf/sap – 12 samples/ 18 months: £820-870

Water deficit irrigation - example

Hand-held equipment £210 £100

Hand-held equipment £210 £100 £730

Hand-held equipment • Have to establish a baseline WITH physical samples. • Use selected marker crops • Select sample timings each year to reflect stages of plant growth • Dedicate one person to help with consistency • Everyone has to be on board – people have different preferences when it comes to watering/how they want plants to look etc. • Bring the customer into the conversation

Reducing Inputs David Aglen Strategic Cereal Farm – Scotland @DavidAglen

2018 wheat yield map 2021 Time for another go

NUTRITION TRIAL To determine whether amending crop nutrition in response to live crop monitoring will have an economic benefit on crop health, yield and grain quality. A wheat crop will be monitored throughout the season, with regular brix meter testing and tissue testing.

Reducing Inputs Brian Barker Strategic Cereal Farm – East @The_Barker_Boys

SFEast 2019 – Input v’s Output Demo Notes: 5 varieties drilled across the tramlines • • Plots of untreated, low, medium and high investment. Fungicide, PGR, Trace Elements, Bio • Stimulants varied through plots. Fertilisers and herbicides uniform. • • Grid located on uniform soil type. Inputs adjusted by Brian to react to field • assessments and weather conditions for the season. Details on this demonstration can be found in Strategic Farm East 2019 handouts. @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

What did a robust variety look like? Four weeks after T3 was applied disease pressure was erupting and visual differences started to appear in green leaf. Graham 5/7/19 GLA% (ave) Untreated Low Medium High Leaf 1 11.5 71.0 81.5 88.3 Leaf 2 6.9 64.5 85.5 87.3 Leaf 3 0.0 3.5 13 26.5 @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

What did a weaker variety look like? Four weeks after T3 was applied disease pressure was erupting and visual differences started to appear in green leaf. KWS Santiago 5/7/19 GLA% (ave) Untreated Low Medium High Leaf 1 0.6 31.5 86.5 90.0 Leaf 2 0.1 19.5 62.4 91.1 Leaf 3 0.0 0.0 17.0 23.5 @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

The Yield award…. Yield T/ha Rank by field location (Highest to Lowest) Yield T/ha Rank by field location (Highest to Lowest) Silverstone Graham Siskin Shabras Santiago Silverstone Graham Siskin Shabras Santiago Untreated 9.57 10.16 9.66 8.55 7.35 Untreated 17 15 16 19 20 Low 10.71 11.59 11.45 11.34 9.52 Low 14 6 9 10 18 Medium 11.47 11.83 11.62 11.52 11.22 Medium 8 3 5 7 11 High 11.68 12.13 12.28 11.03 11.03 High 4 2 1 12 13 **Envirofield plot combine took multiple cuts through all the plots to give us the final yield. Field harvested by us then left plots and cleared afterwards. Weighbridge Yield from complete field 17.01ha = 187.28t @11.01t/ha (15% moisture adjusted) @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

The NET Margin award…. NET Margin CoP £/T Rank by field location (Lowest to Highest) NET Margin CoP £/T Rank by field location (Lowest to Highest) Silverstone Graham Siskin Shabras Santiago Silverstone Graham Siskin Shabras Santiago Untreated £ 61.06 £ 57.52 £ 60.49 £ 68.35 £ 79.54 Untreated 6 3 5 16 20 Low £ 60.37 £ 55.79 £ 56.47 £ 67.92 £ 67.93 Low 4 1 2 14 15 Medium £ 64.65 £ 62.69 £ 63.82 £ 64.37 £ 66.10 Medium 10 7 8 9 11 High £ 69.54 £ 66.96 £ 66.14 £ 73.64 £ 73.64 High 17 13 12 18 18 *Price of Wheat used was £129/t Ex Farm Nov **All variable cost from handbook used including; Seed, Herbicide, Fertiliser that was used on the whole field at a flat rate. *** All machinery usage costed into the NET margin using actual running costs calculated by S&P machinery Review 2018 @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

SFE 2020 – How low could I go? • Second year winter wheat - Siskin Untreated seed, sown late in October • No T0 • £6/haT1 • No T2 • £6/haT3 • 150kg/N applied • No spring herbicide used • Challenged my mind set in a low disease pressure year • Open & honest discussions with my agronomist • It’s our own personal attitude to risk! • Spend less or spend more as insurance? • Details on this demonstration can be found in Strategic • Farm East 2020 handouts. @the_barker_boys @AHDB_Cereals #strategicfarm

Reducing Inputs Rob Fox Strategic Cereal Farm – West @SquabRob

Fungicide Challenge Spend 2012 -2019 YEAR T0 Spend T1 SPEND T2 SPEND T3 SPEND TOTAL 2012 £12.00 £34.00 £44.00 £22.00 £112.00 2013 £14.00 £37.00 £45.00 £25.00 £121.00 2014 £15.00 £39.00 £47.00 £26.00 £127.00 2015 £11.00 £40.00 £44.00 £29.00 £124.00 2016 £12.00 £34.00 £38.00 £29.00 £113.00 2017 £11.00 £29.00 £35.00 £22.00 £97.00 2018 £8.00 £38.00 £36.00 £18.00 £100.00 2019 £2.00 £28.00 £35.00 £11.00 £76.00

Margin Over Fungicide Cost YEAR(Variety) UNTREATED AVG.TREATED AVG. YIELD RESPONSE AVG.MOFC (£120t) 2011 (Duxford) 10.5t/ha 11t/ha 0.5t/ha -£42 2012(Oakley) 3.6t/ha 7.5t/ha 3.9t/ha £368 2013 (Santiago) 9.0t/ha 9.3t/ha 0.25t/ha -£76 2014(Kielder) 7.6t/ha 10.9t/ha 3.3t/ha £284 2015 (Leeds) 11.1t/ha 12.7t/ha 1.6t/ha £74 2016 (Lilli) 7.8t/ha 9.6t/ha 1.8t/ha £83 2017 (Costello) 9.9t/ha 11.2t/ha 1.3t/ha £59 2018 (Graham) 11.8t/ha 12.8t/ha 0.96t/ha £13 (£61@ £170t)

Any Questions?

Could you be a Strategic Cereal Farm host 2021-2027? • Are you an ambitious arable farm/enterprise in the following counties? • • Yorkshire Wiltshire • • Lancashire Hampshire • • Dorset Oxfordshire • Gloucestershire • Do you want to test and show case ? research, share technical and financial performance and have ambitions to advance your business and personal development? Applications open Monday 23 November 2020 ? ahdb.org.uk/farm-excellence/recruitment Any questions? Email: Natalie.Gilbert@ahdb.org.uk

Upcoming AHDB Strategic Farm Week Webinars Thursday 19 November 9:00am – 10:30am: Boosting beneficials through the use of flowering strips seminar Friday 20 November 9:00am – 10:00am: Live ‘ask the researcher’ session with all the trials hosts For more information and to register your place on these webinars visit: https://ahdb.org.uk/sfweek-winter-2020

Close Chris Leslie Chris.leslie@ahdb.org.uk