Water Crisis in Central Asia Key Challenges and Opportunities Prepared by: Diana Castillo, Lisa Marie Izquierdo, Gloria Jimenez, Mari Stangerhaugen, Robert Nixon Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi
Introduction • Water is essential for survival and important resource for social and economic development • Water scarcity affects more than 40% of world globally; by 2025 1.8 billion people will be living in regions with absolute water scarcity • “Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future.” -Former UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan • Water conflicts in Nile, Mekong, Euphrates, and Ganges rivers
Intro Cont’d. • No effective international arrangement • Global dimension of water: erosion, urbanization and biodiversity loss • Lack of attention from international community
Overview: Water crisis in Central Asia • Central Asia – Turkmenistan – Kyrgyz Republic – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Tajikistan • Independence from U.S.S.R. in 1991 • Two main river basins: Amu Darya and Syr Darya • Conflicting interests between upstream and downstream countries Source: University of Texas, 2007
Upstream vs. Downstream Upstream: Tajikistan and Downstream: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan Few natural resources Rich in oil, gas and coal Dependence on Irrigated agriculture downstream countries for energy supplies Water as a commodity Water as common good Dams and Hydropower Aral Sea crisis
Soviet Union Legacy • Centralized planning • Moscow’s “White Gold” • Water management systems – Water-energy exchange
Post Soviet-Era –Bilateral Agreements –Competing interests –New Great Game
Post Soviet-Era Cont’d. Source: SCO website, 2007 The leaders of Russia, China and several former Soviet republics met in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) 2007 summit.
Post Soviet-Era Cont’d. • Water’s role in the economy and social stability of Central Asia – 60 % of population live in rural areas – 45 % of workforce is employed in agriculture – 80 % of region’s arable land relies on irrigation systems
Post Soviet-Era Cont’d. • From command economy to market economy – Main trade partners: � Russia � European Union � China
Key Challenges for Water Cooperation 1. Regional Politics 2. Management of Water Resources 3. Aral Sea Crisis 4. Climate Change UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon visiting Aral Sea in April 2010
1. Regional Politics • Conflicting political/national interests • Widespread corruption • Divergent approaches to water management • Role of neighboring states – Russia � Collective Security Treaty Organization – China � Shanghai Cooperation Organization – Afghanistan
2. Management of Water Resources • 1992 Almaty Agreement - Only existing water agreement - Codification of existing practices - Left upstream countries with little access to the water generated on their territory - Left out Afghanistan Source: Columbia University, Earth Institute, 2009 (generates 6% of water flow in the Aral Sea Basin)
Management of Water Resources Cont’d. • Limitations of the 1992 Almaty Agreement – Unfair water allocation to downstream countries – Upstream countries expected to pay for upkeep of dams while downstream countries reap the benefits • Current developments – Agreement is not being adhered to. – Upstream countries are increasing domestic water usage and decreasing the amount to downstream countries
Management of Water Resources Cont’d. • Upstream countries’ need for hydropower -Struggling to meet energy needs - Using water to generate hydropower - Dispute over the pricing of water • Tajikistan and the Rogun Dam controversy -Decrease dependency on energy imports The Rogun Dam: If completed, it will be the tallest dam in the world -5 % of hydropower potential developed - Tajikistan vs. Uzbekistan - World Bank involvement
Management of Water Resources Cont’d. • Downstream countries and the need for irrigation - High dependence on water intensive cotton production - Inefficient use of scarce water resources - Water lost due to old infrastructure and pollution - Complex water management system - lack of coordination and interaction
Management of Water Resources Cont’d. • Cotton Industry in Uzbekistan – Monoculture crop – Poor irrigation practices – Tension between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – International criticism for Source: Der Spiegel, 2010 its labor practices
3. Aral Sea Crisis Once world’s 4 th largest lake • • Today: Little Aral Sea and Big Aral Sea • Social, health and economic effects • Efforts to save it - Kokaralsk Dam: Kazakhstan and World Bank - International Fund for saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) • Lack of attention to the cotton industry Source: UNIMAPS, 2004
4. Climate Change • Rising temperatures - 20 % of glaciers in the region have melted • Falling agriculture yields • Extreme weather conditions and natural disasters • Opportunities for adaptation and international funding Source: CA.gov, 2010
Case Study: Indus Water Treaty • Key elements - Signed in 1961 between India and Pakistan - Negotiated and signed by a benign go-between: World Bank - Dispute settlement mechanism through neutral expert • Applicability to Central Asia - Overcome competing interests between states - Role of neutral mediator in crafting agreement - Economic incentive: funding from international community Source: Oregon State University, 2010
Regional and International Stakeholders Regional International • Chu-Talas Rivers Commission • UNDP Integrated Water Resources Management • International Fund for saving the (IWRM) Aral Sea (IFAS) • World Bank • Asian Development Bank (ADB) • European Union • United Nations Special Program for the Economies of Central Asia (SPECA)
Lessons Learned � Competing national interests: agriculture versus hydropower creates a zero sum game � The 1992 Almaty Agreement is outdated and ineffective in allocating water resources � Water infrastructure in Central Asia is extremely inefficient by international standards � The Indus Water Treaty shows third-party mediation in water disputes works in the long term � Major debate whether water should be treated as a public good versus a commodity creating challenge for cooperation
Recommendations For Central Asian States � Increase focus on regional, rather than bilateral agreements. � A neutral third-party or a group of experts as a mediator. � Promote reforms that balance economic growth with environmental rehabilitation. � The 1992 Almaty Agreement should be revisited, reviewed, and revised. � Regional financial resources should be harnessed to assemble a pool of technical experts to monitor and oversee existing water infrastructure.
Recommendations Cont’d. For International Community � Establish a new international fund to repair deteriorating water infrastructure. � Identify a benign go-between to assist the countries in negotiating a new water agreement. � Assemble an international group of experts to provide technical advice to policy makers. � Provide economic incentives to aid the downstream countries diversify their economies. � Russia should promote cooperation among the Central Asian states and provide technical assistance.
Thank You for Your Attention! Concluding Remarks
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