wage convergence in south eastern european countries
play

Wage convergence in south-eastern European countries KODA AUTO - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 02, 2024 •203 likes •633 views

Wage convergence in south-eastern European countries KODA AUTO University September 2019 Countries analyzed Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Albania Other countries for comparison Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland Spain,

  1. Wage convergence in south-eastern European countries ŠKODA AUTO University September 2019

  2. Countries analyzed • Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Albania Other countries for comparison • Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland • Spain, Portugal • Germany 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 2

  3. Indicators for evaluation • development of total labor cost per hour in industry in 1998–2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 • development of total labor cost per hour in the automotive industry in 2008–2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey only) • development of the ratio of the country’s total labor cost per hour in industry to Germany’s one in 1998– 2018 and its forecast for 2019–2030 • comparison of the development of total labor cost per hour in industry and of GDP per capita in 1998–2018 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 3

  4. Data All data – in nominal value, in euro • Albania – low availability of data, impossibility to create forecasts • Turkey – time series 2007–2018 • Romania – time series 2000–2018 • other countries – time series 1998–2018 • automotive industry – data for 2008, 2012 and 2016 only Data sources • Eurostat • national statistical offices 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 4

  5. Note • In countries with their own national currencies, the development of their total labor cost in euro depends on fluctuations in their exchange rates. In particular, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the euro is highly volatile. • Forecasts are created using exponential smoothing. 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 5

  6. Exponential smoothing Adaptive approach to fitting time series Calculation of each fitted value is based on all available past observations The trend is locally linear, its slope is gradually changing. Its parameters are estimated by weighted least-square method where the weights exponentially decrease towards the past, i.e. more recent observations are weighted more heavily than distantly past observations. Forecast at time t for time t + h + = + ⋅ ˆ Y a b h t h t t Minimization ∞  − − α 2 j [ Y ( a jb ] − t j t t = j 0 ( )( ) = α + − α + Recurrent calculation of parameters a Y 1 a b − − t t t 1 t 1 ( ) ( ) = β − + − β b a a 1 b − − t t t 1 t 1 a 0 b 0 Starting values and are obtained by fitting several initial observations with a straight line. < α < < β < 0 1 0 1 Smoothing constants 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 6

  7. Total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 7

  8. TLC Bulgaria 10 9 8 7 EUR per hour 6 Data Upper 95% 5 Forecast 4 Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 8

  9. TLC Romania 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data 8 Upper 95% Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 9

  10. TLC Turkey 9 8 7 6 EUR per hour Data 5 Upper 95% 4 Forecast Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 10

  11. TLC Czech Republic 25 20 EUR per hour 15 Data Upper 95% Forecast 10 Lower 95% 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 11

  12. TLC Slovakia 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 12

  13. TLC Hungary 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 13

  14. TLC Poland 16 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 8 Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 14

  15. TLC Spain 35 30 25 EUR per hour Data 20 Upper 95% Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 15

  16. TLC Portugal 20 18 16 14 EUR per hour 12 Data Upper 95% 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 16

  17. TLC Germany 60 50 40 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 30 Forecast Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 17

  18. Total labor cost (TLC) per hour in the automotive industry (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 18

  19. TLC Bulgaria (adjusted for automotive industry) 10 9 8 7 EUR per hour 6 Data Upper 95% 5 Forecast 4 Lower 95% 3 2 1 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 19

  20. TLC Romania (adjusted for automotive industry) 14 12 10 EUR per hour Data 8 Upper 95% Forecast 6 Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 20

  21. TLC Turkey (adjusted for automotive industry) 12 10 8 EUR per hour Data Upper 95% 6 Forecast Lower 95% 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 21

  22. The ratio of the country’s total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry to Germany’s one (in %) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 22

  23. TLC Bulgaria / TLC Germany Ratio 20 18 16 14 12 Data Upper 95% % 10 Forecast 8 Lower 95% 6 4 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 23

  24. TLC Romania / TLC Germany Ratio 30 25 20 Data Upper 95% % 15 Forecast Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 24

  25. TLC Turkey / TLC Germany Ratio 25 20 15 Data Upper 95% % Forecast 10 Lower 95% 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 25

  26. TLC Czech Republic / TLC Germany Ratio 60 50 40 Data Upper 95% % 30 Forecast Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 26

  27. TLC Slovakia / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 27

  28. TLC Hungary / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 28

  29. TLC Poland / TLC Germany Ratio 35 30 25 Data 20 Upper 95% % Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 29

  30. TLC Spain / TLC Germany Ratio 80 70 60 50 Data Upper 95% % 40 Forecast 30 Lower 95% 20 10 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 30

  31. TLC Portugal / TLC Germany Ratio 40 35 30 25 Data Upper 95% % 20 Forecast 15 Lower 95% 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 31

  32. Comparison of total labor cost (TLC) per hour in industry and of GDP per capita (in EUR) 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 32

  33. TLC, GDP – Bulgaria 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 33

  34. TLC, GDP – Romania 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 34

  35. TLC, GDP – Turkey 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 35

  36. TLC, GDP – Czech Republic 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 36

  37. TLC, GDP – Slovakia 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 37

  38. TLC, GDP – Hungary 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 38

  39. TLC, GDP – Poland 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 39

  40. TLC, GDP – Spain 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 40

  41. TLC, GDP – Portugal 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 41

  42. TLC, GDP – Germany 30.9.2019 Wage convergence 42

Recommend

SEEDNet a window of biodiversity SEEDNet a window of biodiversity y conservation in South

SEEDNet a window of biodiversity SEEDNet a window of biodiversity y conservation in South

SEEDNet a window of biodiversity SEEDNet a window of biodiversity y conservation in South Eastern conservation in South Eastern European countries European countries European countries European countries Danela Murariu - chair of the

443 views • 12 slides
EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK Supporting European Objectives in Eastern Neighbourhood Countries and

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK Supporting European Objectives in Eastern Neighbourhood Countries and

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK Supporting European Objectives in Eastern Neighbourhood Countries and Central Asia Fi First TRACECA Investment Forum TRACECA I F Brussels, 12 October 2010 15/10/2010 European Investment Bank 1 Long-term finance

888 views • 17 slides
Community Meeting Eastern South Geographic Community Wilmington and Eastern South analysis

Community Meeting Eastern South Geographic Community Wilmington and Eastern South analysis

Community Meeting Eastern South Geographic Community Wilmington and Eastern South analysis districts May 3, 2017 | Bladen Community College Auditorium (Dublin) Eastern South Community May 3, 2017 Photo Booth Eastern South Community

492 views • 46 slides
Business Cycle Convergence or Decoupling? Economic Adjustment of CESEE Countries during the Crisis

Business Cycle Convergence or Decoupling? Economic Adjustment of CESEE Countries during the Crisis

Business Cycle Convergence or Decoupling? Economic Adjustment of CESEE Countries during the Crisis Conference on European Economic Integration (CEEI) Helsinki, November 27, 2012 Doris Ritzberger-Grnwald, Martin Gchter and Aleksandra Riedl

520 views • 21 slides
Living Wage Benchmarks ASIA FLOOR WAGE Global Living Wage Coalition What &amp; Why ? To examine

Living Wage Benchmarks ASIA FLOOR WAGE Global Living Wage Coalition What &amp; Why ? To examine

Living Wage Benchmarks ASIA FLOOR WAGE Global Living Wage Coalition What &amp; Why ? To examine the impact of low wages on the wellbeing of garment workers and their families. To assist in making a case in sourcing countries and in

638 views • 41 slides
Wage Dynamics in Europe Findings from the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) Frank Smets European

Wage Dynamics in Europe Findings from the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) Frank Smets European

Wage Dynamics in Europe Findings from the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) Frank Smets European Central Bank WDN Objectives Two main objectives: Identify the sources and features of wage and labour cost dynamics that are most relevant

746 views • 48 slides
IN SELECTED SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PhD Edo Rajh, Institute of Economics, Zagreb PhD

IN SELECTED SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PhD Edo Rajh, Institute of Economics, Zagreb PhD

PhD Tamara Jovanov Marjanova, University Goce Delcev - Shtip , Republic of Macedonia PhD Ljupco Davcev, University Goce Delcev - Shtip , Republic of Macedonia ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTIONS IN SELECTED SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

457 views • 14 slides
European financial crisis, recovery PROCESS OF ACCESSION COUNTRIES and

European financial crisis, recovery PROCESS OF ACCESSION COUNTRIES and

DIVERSITY IN THE CONVERGENCE European financial crisis, recovery PROCESS OF ACCESSION COUNTRIES and future prospec5ve Urmas Varblane University of Tartu Raul Eamets University of Tartu

479 views • 26 slides
Eastern Partnership Index Charting progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and

Eastern Partnership Index Charting progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and

Eastern Partnership Index Charting progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development The EaP Index Over 70 experts 43 indicators Published yearly involved 6 countries 2 dimensions 6 sectors The EaP Index

453 views • 14 slides
countries ALENA ZUIKOVA, The Humanitarian Techniques Agency, Centre for European

countries ALENA ZUIKOVA, The Humanitarian Techniques Agency, Centre for European

Strengthening higher education reforms in the Eastern Partnership countries ALENA ZUIKOVA, The Humanitarian Techniques Agency, Centre for European Transformation Partners BELARUS The Humanitarian Techniques Agency Belarusian

115 views • 7 slides
Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries Markus Poschke McGill

Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries Markus Poschke McGill

Wage employment, unemployment and self-employment across countries Markus Poschke McGill University SEA 2018 Washington, DC, November 19, 2018 Markus Poschke (McGill) W Introduction The distribution of employment status across countries

688 views • 45 slides
Location Situated in the South-Eastern part of the Balkan Black Sea area - Eastern border

Location Situated in the South-Eastern part of the Balkan Black Sea area - Eastern border

Location Situated in the South-Eastern part of the Balkan Black Sea area - Eastern border of EU Strategic geographic position as a bridge between Europe and Asia www.freezonebourgas.com BULGARIA economy data Political and

408 views • 22 slides
Mortality convergence across industrialized countries. Paris Seminar in Demographic Economics

Mortality convergence across industrialized countries. Paris Seminar in Demographic Economics

Mortality convergence across industrialized countries. Paris Seminar in Demographic Economics H ector Pifarr e i Arolas (with Hippolyte dAlbis and Loesse Jacques Esso) Toulouse School of Economics December 3, 2013 Question The

600 views • 45 slides
Growth in European countries C. Jona-Lasinio, M. Iommi (LUISS LAB OF EUROPEAN ECONOMICS)

Growth in European countries C. Jona-Lasinio, M. Iommi (LUISS LAB OF EUROPEAN ECONOMICS)

Intangible Capital and Productivity Growth in European countries C. Jona-Lasinio, M. Iommi (LUISS LAB OF EUROPEAN ECONOMICS) INNODRIVE FINAL CONFERENCE Centre for European Policy Studies Brussels, 22-23 February, 2011 1 Outline Descriptive

632 views • 39 slides
South East European Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning What is SEECEL? First institutional

South East European Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning What is SEECEL? First institutional

South East European Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning What is SEECEL? First institutional development from the EU SBA process Human Capital Development dimensions complex areas pre-accession countries asked for structured

455 views • 8 slides
Leading technology event in Eastern Europe 9-12 June 2018 1 The emerging Eastern European

Leading technology event in Eastern Europe 9-12 June 2018 1 The emerging Eastern European

Leading technology event in Eastern Europe 9-12 June 2018 1 The emerging Eastern European technology ecosystem The technology sector in Eastern Europe is at an inflection point, with an enormous chance to influence the way we work, live and

343 views • 13 slides
Wage inequality within and between firms in Cape Town, South Africa Martin Monziols Andrew

Wage inequality within and between firms in Cape Town, South Africa Martin Monziols Andrew

Wage inequality within and between firms in Cape Town, South Africa Martin Monziols Andrew Kerr October 27, 2017 Abstract Research on earnings inequality in South Africa has almost entirely used household survey data. This work has

185 views • 17 slides
Urban Water Water in Middle in Middle Eastern Eastern countries, countries, Urban a

Urban Water Water in Middle in Middle Eastern Eastern countries, countries, Urban a

Urban Water Water in Middle in Middle Eastern Eastern countries, countries, Urban a Development Development Challenge: Challenge: a Legal Issues Issues Legal Rana Kharouf Gaudig Kharouf Gaudig Rana Paris Descartes University

602 views • 19 slides
Productivity and Convergence in Developing Countries: The Role of Imported Inputs Marcel P.

Productivity and Convergence in Developing Countries: The Role of Imported Inputs Marcel P.

Productivity and Convergence in Developing Countries: The Role of Imported Inputs Marcel P. Timmer and Gaaitzen J. de Vries Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) and Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen

518 views • 17 slides
Join the club CONVERGENCE IN POPULATION AGEING ACROSS EUROPEAN NUTS-2 REGIONS ILYA KASHNITSKY * ,

Join the club CONVERGENCE IN POPULATION AGEING ACROSS EUROPEAN NUTS-2 REGIONS ILYA KASHNITSKY * ,

Join the club CONVERGENCE IN POPULATION AGEING ACROSS EUROPEAN NUTS-2 REGIONS ILYA KASHNITSKY * , JOOP DE BEER , LEO VAN WISSEN, NICOLE VAN DER GAAG RSA Annual Conference 2016-04-05 * Corresponding author: kashnitsky@nidi.nl WHY CONVERGENCE IN

495 views • 33 slides
A ffi rmative action policies and the evolution of the South African racial wage gap Dieter von

A ffi rmative action policies and the evolution of the South African racial wage gap Dieter von

A ffi rmative action policies and the evolution of the South African racial wage gap Dieter von Fintel 1 , 2 , Rulof Burger 1 and Rachel Jafta 1 1 Stellenbosch University, 2 IZA UNU-WIDER Think Development Conference 13 September 2018 von

532 views • 17 slides
PPP as a tool to use bridging fiscal gap in countries th South 4 th uth Asi sia Re Region on

PPP as a tool to use bridging fiscal gap in countries th South 4 th uth Asi sia Re Region on

PPP as a tool to use bridging fiscal gap in countries th South 4 th uth Asi sia Re Region on Public ic Procurem ocurement ent Conference ference Electronic Government Procurement (e -GP) GP) in South th Asi sia Achi hievments

690 views • 25 slides
Strengthening Quality Assurance in Developing Countries through South - South Collaboration

Strengthening Quality Assurance in Developing Countries through South - South Collaboration

Strengthening Quality Assurance in Developing Countries through South - South Collaboration Indias Approach to Quality Assurance in RH Commodities - Dr. K. V. Jogi, Drector, Central Drugs Testing Laboratory-Mumbai Welcome I am grateful to

388 views • 14 slides
Demographic, Employment and Wage Trends in South Africa Haroon Bhorat &amp; Karmen Naidoo

Demographic, Employment and Wage Trends in South Africa Haroon Bhorat &amp; Karmen Naidoo

Demographic, Employment and Wage Trends in South Africa Haroon Bhorat &amp; Karmen Naidoo Co-authors: Morn Oosthuizen and Kavisha Pillay WIDER Development Conference 15 September 2018 | Helsinki, Finland Outline 1. Introduction to the

566 views • 23 slides

More recommend