W hat is a w ind atlas and w here does it fit into the w ind energy sector? DTU Wind Energy By Hans E. Jørgensen Head of section : Meteorology & Remote sensing Program manager : Siting & Integration
Outline • Why a wind atlas? • A little history and future • Who needs a wind atlas and what is it used for? • What is a state-of-the-art wind atlas? • The WASA project – Measurement programme for validation – Observational Wind Atlases 2 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
A sm all rem inder - I ce core data from Antarctic & global tem perature 3 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Wind atlas and energy sector 02 November 2016
W hy a w ind atlas - 1 The wind turbine – air mass and speed is the fuel 3 MW w ind turbine Generator Gearbox Nominal revolutions: 16 rpm Blade W eight Nacelle: 70 t Yaw drive Rotor: 41 t W ind Hub Nacelle Towers: 100 m - 250 t Rotor Tower Diameter: 90 m Control Transformer Area swept: 6,362 m 2 High vol- Foundation Power curve tage cable Football field: 68 x 105 = 7,140 m 2 Mass flux at w ind speed of 1 0 m / s: 10 x 6362 x 1.225 = 7 7 9 3 5 kg/ s at air density of 1.225 kg/ m 3 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
W hy a w ind atlas - 2 Energy in wind Energy in wind P = ½ U 3 P = ½ U 3 [ W/ m 2 ] [ W/ m 2 ] Wind provides the income in cost-benefit Wind speed Wind speed Investment costs U [ m/ s] U [ m/ s] Operation and maintenance costs Electricity production ~ Wind resources Turbine lifetime Discount rate Environmental benefits 10% error on speed 30% error on energy Modelling is necessary and it must be good DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Outline • Why a wind atlas? • A little history and future • Who needs a wind atlas and what is it used for? • What is a state-of-the-art wind atlas? • The WASA project – Measurement programme for validation – Observational Wind Atlases 6 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
History of w ind atlases – som e m ilestones 1980 The Wind Atlas Method was born at Risø (now DTU Wind Energy) 1981 First wind atlas for Denmark (observational) 1989 European Wind Atlas (observational) 1990 + DTU Wind Energy is starting to do research in using NWP tools • Downscaling • Generalization • First KAMM then WRF 2006 Wind Atlas for Egypt (KAMM) 2012 Wind Atlas for South Africa (KAMM) 2013 World Bank ESMAP starts RE Resource Mapping projects 2014 Wind Atlas for South Africa (WRF) • First WRF-based Numerical Wind Atlas – applying new generalisation method for time-series mesoscale data • First High-Resolution Wind Resource Map – applying new automated microscale modelling running WAsP in large geographical areas • First Extreme Wind Atlas using DTU method 7 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Num erical W ind Atlas w ork w ith m esoscale m odelling 1999 British coastal areas (selected) 1999 Ireland 2000 Northern Sweden 2000 Gulf of Suez, Egypt 2000 Western coast of Turkey 2000 North coast of Morocco 2001 Northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain 2001 Denmark 2001 Faroe Islands 2002 Turkey (west of Adana) 2002 Tunisia 2002 Morocco (NW portion of the country) 2002 Egypt (most of country covered) 2003 Corsica - mesoscale flow study 2003 Tanzania - mesoscale flow study 2003 Portugal - mesoscale flow study 2004 Bangladesh * 2004 Ethiopia * 2004 Kenya * 2004 Nepal * 2006 Egypt 2007 Cape Verde 2007 India Wind Atlas 2008 Cambodia 2008 United Arab Emirates 2008 North Eastern China 2010 South Baltic Wind Atlas 2012 Mali * 2012 NORSEWind, North and Baltic Seas * 2012 Lesotho Wind Energy * * indicates projects for which results are freely and publicly accessible DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 8 02 November 2016
WB ESMAP Wind resource mapping programme http://www.esmap.org/RE_Mapping Wind Atlas for Vietnam Projects initiated 2013-2015: preliminary Phase 1 Vietnam Zambia Pakistan PNG Maldives Tanzania Ethiopia Nepal Lesotho Mean generalized wind speed DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Continued EU research project 2 0 1 5 -2 0 2 0 New European W ind Atlas ( NEW A) Long-Term goal to reduce the uncertainty to 3 % on modelling of wind everywhere in 2030 (a very ambitious goal) Sub-goals 2 0 2 0 for this project i. Open source model chain from Global models to micro scale models (to be used to characterize diurnal cycles) ii. Create experiments to verify the models (Forest , Complex terrain, Forested complex terrain, Coastal zones, High altitude) iii. Provide a database of standardized input to models (define resolutions on roughness & terrain – Wind geo-server) Methods • Develop the interface between microscale and mesoscale models • Develop microscale models that include stability (for the characterization of the diurnal variations) • Perform high quality measurement campaigns • Verify the developed models against measurements • Develop a standard for validation of models Budget – 13 mio Euro Partners – 7 EU member countries (Denmark lead) DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Outline • Why a wind atlas? • A little history and future • W ho needs a w ind atlas and w hat is it used for ? • What is a state-of-the-art wind atlas? • The WASA project – Measurement programme for validation – Observational Wind Atlases 11 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
The w ind energy sector L o c al planning autho rities W i nd ener gy consul t ant s 12 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
W ho needs a w ind atlas – the W B Governments Quantifies resource potential Helps identify best areas for development Improved data for setting policy incentives Commercial Developers Information on high potential areas Reduces project uncertainty and risks Source of validation data for site assessment Expert Community Contributes to IRENA Global Atlas Supports basic and applied research Methodological and modeling improvements Source: World Bank - ESMAP DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Users and uses Authorities Policies, regulations and plans Planners Resource and development planning Investors, owners and banks Financial planning, risk assessment and decisions Developers (small and large) Project development Industry (small and large) Project design and implementation, Wind turbine design and development Power sector Power system planning, development and operation Consultants Independent expertise and tools development Academic community Research, tools development & education 14 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
W ind Atlas used for planning of renew able energy developm ent in South Africa DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Application for project developm ent DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
Outline • Why a wind atlas? • A little history and future • Who needs a wind atlas and what is it used for? • W hat is a state-of-the-art w ind atlas? • The WASA project – Measurement programme for validation – Observational Wind Atlases 17 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
W hat is a w ind atlas? A wind atlas is a generalized set of wind climate information • at a given location • or at many grid points – representing a region Much more than a simple map containing mean wind speed • Verification with observations • speed and direction statistics A data base which allows much more • detailed calculations DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
W ind Atlas for South Africa 2 0 1 4 a graphical representation High-Resolution Wind Resource Map using WRF-based NWA, March 2014 mean wind speed (m/s) at 100 m agl in a grid spacing of 250 m. Generalised wind speeds – WRF-based NWA, March 2014 mean wind speed [m/s] 100 m agl, fat terrain, 3 cm roughness 19 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016
From m esoscale m odel to site conditions direct mesoscale model output site conditions micro corrections only Microscale modelling meso & micro corrections Mesoscale Microscale generalisation modelling Numerical Wind Atlas DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016 SDC Course
The verified num erical w ind atlas • A state-of-the-art wind atlas is verified by measurements • The Wind Atlas project is designed from the beginning to include high quality measurements against which the numerical wind atlas could be checked • This produces a “Verified Numerical Wind Atlas” So, alongside the mesoscale modelling, the project has a second, parallel, activity: Numerical wind Mesoscale Generalised climatological wind Verification modelling climates @ grid points atlas High quality Microscale Generalised wind climates @ modelling mast locations measurements DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark 02 November 2016 SDC Course
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