Vail Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Market/Research Report: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Market/Research Report: - Orientation/History - Econometrics - Summer Review, Winter Outlook -Transient Inventory Study Synopsys Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Ralf Garrison

Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. What’s Next? 2

Who we are… 3

MTN WEST • Aspen • Avon, Colorado • Breckenridge • Big Sky • Beaver Creek • Copper • Gunnison/Crested Butte • Keystone • Mt Bachelor • Mammoth Lakes • Jackson Hole • North Lake Tahoe • Snowmass • Steamboat • Park City Area • Summit County, CO • Telluride • Vail • Winter Park

DEMAND Consumer Agent P.C. Call Center Mobile Cloud Shop/Buy Customer Data Fulfill/ Process Package/Sell Product Data A T ATTRACTON TRANSPORTATION Ski, Golf, Events Plane, Car, Boat SUPPLY Conference, Rentals 6

Vail Property Participation 24 properties representing 2,509 units 63% of total community census 7

24 Data Submitting Properties Arrabelle at Vail Square Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail Destination Resorts Vail The Sebastian Vail Cascade Condos The Wren Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Tivoli Lodge Evergreen Lodge at Vail Vail International Four Seasons Resort Vail Vail Mountain Lodge Lion Square Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Lodge at Lionshead Vail Marriott Lodge Tower The Lodge at Vail Manor Vail Resort The Ritz-Carlton Residences Montaneros 8

Vail’s DMX Participation CURRENT VAIL PRODUCTS OTHER PRODUCTS/SVCS • • Economic Report – 2 x Annually Intelligence Pack • • Reservation Activity Outlook Council/EAC Seasonal Presentations • • Executive Summary Proposed: 2016 • • Condo vs. Hotel Group vs FIT • • New Special Event Calendar – Overlay Group vs. FIT ( Proposed) • • Multi Destination Comparative Vail-Only Research Web Portal • Multi Destination Comparative – • Further Grey Market Inventory Enhanced • Daily Occupancy Report (DOR) • Mid-month Summer (4 out of 6 months) • Mid-month Winter • Industry Overlay • Event Calendar Overlay • 45 Day Retail Report • Guest Profiler • School Break Report (Vail Resorts Only) • Transient Inventory Study • Economic Indicators & Summary • Taxable Sales Report • Presentations 9

Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 10

Econometrics • Consistent Economic Recovery since 2009 • …”Rising Tide” for Discretionary Spending • All Key Indicators have been positive • But Recent Volatility is of concern • Specifically: • Slowing Growth Globally • Geo-Political Uncertainty/Terrorism • Strong Dollar is International Headwind • Low Oil/Fuel is Good and Bad • Future: Uncertain – Warrants Attention

Econometrics Consumer Confidence Index 120 January 2007 - November 2015 Monthly Values, 6-Month Aggregate Average 110 and 12 Month Moving Average Trend Average 6 mo 100 Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 90 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Confidence Index (Conference (Base year and calc. method varies by series) Board)) 80 70 60 Index 50 40 30 20 10 0 Produced by DestiMetrics; Source: The Conference Board Month 12

Econometrics: CCI: 2014- 2015 Growth slows, Volatility Rises….. Consumer Confidence Index 2014/15 105 103.8 102.6 103 101.4 101.3 101 99.8 99.1 98.8 99 ` 97 94.6 Index 95 94.3 93.1 93 91.0 90.4 91 89 87 85 Source: Conference Board Month 13

Econometrics Sep 2014: $1 CAD = Sep 2014: € 1 EUR = $0.92 USD $1.30 USD Sep 2015: € 1 EUR Sep 2015: $1 CAD = = $1.10 USD $0.75 USD +23% +18% 14

Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 15

Industry: Summer Benchmarking Index Industry Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007 Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007 70.0% 60.0% 57.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 26.8% 21.6% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 16

Vail: Summer Benchmarking Index Vail Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 44.3% 40.0% 30.0% 27.6% 20.0% 13.3% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 17

Summer 2015 May - October Year over Year INDUSTRY-WIDE Vail % Change in Occupancy 7% 3% ADR 5% 4% RevPAR 11% 8% 18

Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 2015 YTD vs. 2014 YTD as of 10/31 (22 90% properties) 2015 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 80% 2014 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Occupancy 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May-15 16-May-15 23-May-15 30-May-15 6-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 27-Jun-15 4-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 25-Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 29-Aug-15 5-Sep-15 12-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 26-Sep-15 3-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 31-Oct-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 19

20 31-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 3-Oct-15 26-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 12-Sep-15 5-Sep-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 29-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 8-Aug-15 1-Aug-15 25-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 2015 4-Jul-15 27-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 2014 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 13-Jun-15 6-Jun-15 30-May-15 23-May-15 16-May-15 9-May-15 2-May-15 25-Apr-15 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Occupancy

Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 21

“Industry:” Winter Benchmarking Index “ Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 7.1% 10.0% 4.6% 0.0% -2.5% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 22

Vail: Winter Benchmarking Index Vail Winter Performance: 2008/09 - 2014/15 vs 2007/08 Benchmark Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 40.0% 30.0% 21.5% 20.4% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -0.9% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 23

Vail: Occupancy OTB – Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -8% Industry +1% 24

Vail: ADR OTB – Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail +5% Industry +2% 25

Vail: RevPAR OTB – Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -3% Industry +3% 26

Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Occupancy 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) -30% 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) -40% 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) -50% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 27

Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% Easter 2015 90% 80% 70% FBLA 2015 60% 50% 40% 30% 2015 World Alpine Ski Occupancy 20% Championships 10% 0% -10% -20% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) Easter 2016 -30% 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) -40% 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) FBLA 2016 -50% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 28

30-Apr-16 29 23-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 2-Apr-16 26-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 5-Mar-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 27-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 6-Feb-16 30-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 2-Jan-16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 26-Dec-15 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 19-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 5-Dec-15 28-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 14/15 7-Nov-15 31-Oct-15 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Occupancy

Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 30