Vaccines, Measles, Autism and the Rights of Parents Mark F. Blaxill Health Choice April 30, 2017
Introduction Measles in the United States Autism in Minnesota Research fraud from the CDC in MMR-autism study Exemption rights
What the government says about the risks and benefits of vaccines Benefits Risks
What “anti-vaxxers” say about the risks and benefits of vaccines Risks Benefits
The risks and benefits of each vaccine are different Risks Vaccine 1 Benefits Benefits Vaccine 2 Risks Risks Vaccine 3 Benefits Vaccine 4 Risks Benefits Vaccine 5 Risks Benefits Risks Vaccine 6 Benefits Etc All vaccines have risks
The schedules many of us grew up with Year 1 Year 2 Y3 Y4 Y5 1960 Birth M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 + M12 M15 M18-24 Diphtheria Pertussis Tetanus Polio (oral) Smallpox Year 1 Year 2 Y3 Y4 Y5 1975 Birth M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 + M12 M15 M18-24 Diphtheria Pertussis Tetanus Polio (oral) Measles Mumps Rubella Year 1 Year 2 Y3 Y4 Y5 1986 Birth M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 + M12 M15 M18-24 Diphtheria Pertussis Tetanus Polio (oral) Measles Mumps Rubella
Once Quite Rare, Vaccine Adverse Side Effect Reports Have Risen Above 30,000/Year, With Over 200 Deaths/Year Pandemic flu effect Year of vaccination Source: Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, July 27, 2015
Introduction Measles in the United States Autism in Minnesota Research fraud from the CDC in MMR-autism study Exemption rights
MEASLES MORTALITY IN THE 20 TH CENTURY 16 Deaths per 100K 14 12 10 8 6 Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease long before the vaccine was introduced… 4 2 Measles vaccine licensed 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
KEY FACTS ABOUT MEASLES RISK IN THE UNITED STATES The U.S population risk of dying from measles has fallen essentially to zero during the 20 th century, for one major and one minor reason 1. Most importantly, measles long ago became a “self-limiting infection of short duration, moderate severity, and low fatality.” 1 Death rates among those infected fell to very low levels 2. Of lesser importance, wild-type measles cases have also fallen to very low levels following the introduction of the live virus measles vaccine Since 2000, There have been over 2200 cases of wild-type measles in the U.S. • There have been conflicting reports on the number of deaths • • CDC: spokeswoman in 2015: Zero deaths from wild-type measles since 2003 2 • Latest updates to CDC reports: 11 deaths Over 170 cases of deaths related to measles containing vaccines have been • reported to VAERS 3 1. Alexander D. Langmuir et al., The Importance of Measles as a Health Problem , 52 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH 1, 1 (1962). 2. CDC spokesperson Helen (Amy) Rowland to Health Choice , January 30, 2015 3. Search for measles-containing vaccines, vaccination years 2000-2017 and death http://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
THE CHANGING RISK OF DEATH FROM A MEASLES INFECTION: 1911-1965 6.0% In the early 20 th century, measles was a dangerous illness, between 1-5% of those who caught it died 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% After World War II, measles 2.0% became a mostly benign childhood illness, with 1.0% less than 1 in 1000 dying from it 0.0% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
MEASLES INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN THE 20 TH CENTURY 15 Deaths per 100K 10 Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease long before the vaccination was introduced… 5 Measles vaccine licensed 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 800 600 Cases per 100K 400 …but the measles vaccine did effectively eliminate a common childhood illness 200 First measles vaccine licensed in 1963 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL OR EXTREME ABOUT THE RECENT MEASLES OUTBREAK Total CA OH NY WA MN TX All Other 2009 71 9 1 18 1 1 1 40 2010 63 27 2 8 1 3 0 22 2011 220 31 0 32 4 26 6 122 2012 55 8 1 4 0 0 0 42 2013 187 15 0 65 1 2 25 84 2014 667 34 382 9 34 0 8 200 2015 188 101 0 3 7 1 1 75 (147 DL ) 2016 83 NA 2017 39+32 7 0 1 1 32 0 30 (as of 4/28 )
CDC DESCRIPTION OF RECENT OUTBREAKS MN 2011 “The largest outbreak occurred among 21 persons in a Minnesota population • in which many children were unvaccinated because of parental concerns about the safety of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.” TX 2013 “In an ongoing outbreak in Texas, 20 confirmed cases have been reported as • of August 24 among members of a church community .” NY 2013 “A total of 58 cases* were identified, including six generations of measles • infection in two neighborhoods of the borough of Brooklyn. All cases were in members of the orthodox Jewish community . No case was identified in a person who had documented measles vaccination at the time of exposure OH 2014 “The U.S. experienced 23 measles outbreaks in 2014, including one large • outbreak of 383 cases, occurring primarily among unvaccinated Amish communities in Ohio.”
The Disneyland Measles Outbreak and it Aftermath An unknown individual (presumed to be an international traveler) infected • with measles visited Disneyland around December 17-20, 2014. Approximately 40 California residents (and a smaller number of out-of state • residents) were exposed to measles and infected during this period. These ~50 original cases eventually infected about 100 more, mostly California residents The CDC was first notified of these new cases in early January and began • publicizing the outbreak aggressively soon after Intensive media coverage commenced in late January (January 21-24), peak • coverage was reached in early February (February 3-6) and continued until month-end However, by mid February, measles infections were no longer spreading. The • last reported California case connected to Disneyland caught the virus around February 20 Supported by the media hysteria over measles, a wave of vaccine anti- • exemption legislation was launched. In many states, legislators introduced new bills revoking exemption rights starting with a bill filed in Oregon on January 20 th
Within 6-8 weeks, the Disneyland outbreak had largely run its course, with few new measles rashes after February 11 CDC MMWR Early Release: February 13, 2015. Number of confirmed measles cases (N = 110), by date of rash onset — California, December 2014–February 2015
In late January, CDC publicized reports from a Disneyland outbreak; by mid March, new reports ended Date of report Total cases New reports All US cases CA cases All US reports CA reports* (as of 1/7) 9 7 9 7 MMWR Feb 20, 2015 /64(06);153-154 (12/17-1/7) 1/23/2015 (as of 1/21) 51 42 42 35 http://emergency.cdc.gov/han/han00376.asp (1/7-21) 2/13/2015 (as of 2/11) 125 110 74 68 MMWR Feb 20, 2015 /64(06);153-154 (1/21-2/11) 3/2/2015 (as of 2/27) 140 125 15 15 http://www.cdc.gov/measles/multi-state-outbreak.html (2/11-27) 3/9/2015 (as of 3/6) 142 126 2 1 (2/27-3/6) 3/16/2015 (as of 3/13) 145 129 3 3 (3/6-13) 3/23/2015 (as of 3/20) 146 130 1 1 (3/13-20) 3/30/2015 (as of 3/27) 146 130 0 0 (3/20-27) 4/6/2015 (as of 4/3) 147 131 1 1 (3/27-4/3) *CDC weekly reports lag behind the California DPH reports
The 2017 Minnesota measles outbreak
Since 2000, over 2200 reported measles cases, 11 reported deaths, no deaths in major outbreaks Measles cases OH 600 TX/ CA/ 400 MN NY Disneyland 200 0 Reported deaths from measles 10 5 0
Since 2000, 172 deaths from measles-containing vaccines have been reported to VAERS Measles vaccines deaths reported to VAERS 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Summary points The hysteria over measles was unfounded. Measles is not Ebola Measles has long since ceased to be a dangerous illness for healthy children. Most adults born before the mid-1960s acquired measles in childhood and • experienced it as a minor inconvenience The experience of measles as a subclinical illness caused by live-virus injections has made wild-type measles very rare and easier to fear Measles should not cause panic • The measles vaccine virus can shed and cause infections in unhealthy children. Vaccinees should avoid those at health risk of viral infections. Measles vaccination to protect the ill is not a civic duty • Measles-containing vaccines like MMR now cause many more deaths than measles The “Disneyland measles” episode was neither larger nor more serious than other recent outbreaks
Introduction Measles in the United States Autism in Minnesota Research fraud from the CDC in MMR-autism study Exemption rights
SINCE 1990, AUTISM RATES HAVE EXPLODED: SOMETHING NEW AND TERRIBLE IS HAPPENING TO A GENERATION OF CHILDREN Autism cases per 10,000 All 160 autistic spectrum 140 disorders 120 100 80 PDD/ 60 autistic disorder 40 20 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Birth year 1 Rates of PDD/ autistic disorder based on data from WI , UT, CA DDS and CDC ADDM network 2 Rates for Autism Spectrum disorder based on surveys of 8 year olds: MN from 1989-93 and CDC ADDM network from 1992-2002. 2002 and 2004 birth year data are adjusted for downward biases in Utah and Maryland data
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