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Heating trends by 2020 UK Krystyna Dawson BSRIA June 2014 Policy long term impact on dwellings Europe Reduction of CO2 emissions Reduction of energy consumption Efficiency of products & systems Integration of products

  1. Heating trends by 2020 UK Krystyna Dawson BSRIA June 2014

  2. Policy long term impact on dwellings – Europe  Reduction of CO2 emissions  Reduction of energy consumption  Efficiency of products & systems  Integration of products & systems Excellence in Market Intelligence 2 11/02/2010

  3. Share of RES & Fracking Share of RES in electricity generation Germany France Spain Italy Poland UK Belgium 2012: 11% 2012: 17% 2012: 11% 2012: 20% 2012: 10% 2012: 8% 2012: 27% Ambitious targets, 2020: 38 % 2020: 27% 2020: 31% 2020: 26% 2020: 19% High cost 2020: 21% 2020: 36% Substantial amounts available Permits issued Lots of uncertainty about environmental impact Energy Efficiency, and economic viability Management, Control, at the top of the agenda. 3 Excellence in Market Intelligence 3

  4. Market drivers until 2020  Tightening energy 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2018 efficiency legislation Directive All new 2010//31/EU Energy saving All new public target applying to National min. energy buildings are buildings multi-dwelling performance requirements nearly 0 must be energy nearly 0 energy   Efficiency Incentive programs requirements set at system level 0.30 0.20  Growing energy prices. 0.10 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 Excellence in Market Intelligence

  5. ErP - Impact on products • Dramatic decrease in sales of Eco Design Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015 non-condensing boiler A +++ ≥ 150% Fuel cell • Increase in Combined & Hybrid A ++ ≥ 125% systems Ground /Water to water HP Cogeneration A + ≥ 98% Gas HP Air to water HP A ≥ 90% Condensing boilers B ≥ 82% C ≥ 75% Non- condensing boilers D ≥ 36% From 26/9/2015 • Enhanced Controls products with Label D to G are no longer E ≥ 34% allowed to be sold 5 Excellence in Market Intelligence 5

  6. Combining systems System label Product label System label example: High efficiency gas boiler 89% + Solar thermal system (VT) 6% + Temperature controls 4% System efficiency 99% Separate labelling for A + ≥ 98% Space Heating and SHW. 6 Excellence in Market Intelligence 6

  7. UK energy efficiency path UK journey to zero carbon homes Source: ZERO CARBON HUB 7 Excellence in Market Intelligence 7

  8. General Assumptions HVAC2020 UK Base Case Scenario Drivers for existing buildings Drivers for new buildings Replacement ratio: Legislation: Predicted life for boilers • Zero carbon buildings 2018 • All gas boilers: 13 years • All oil boilers: 15 years New build level: Financial incentives for • 2010 – 131,000 Nearly two products years later • RHI for residential segment • 2020 – 200,000 than ? introduced April 2014 planned • Feed-in-tariffs reviewed 2015 ? GDP growth 2.0% from 2014 • Green Deal improved from 2014 Energy prices 8 Excellence in Market Intelligence 8

  9. UK Heating Technologies 2010 2020 Sales to new build 7% 0% 2% 15% 15% 10% 1% boilers 18% heat pumps solar thermals micro chp & FC district heating 81% 51% Total: 110,000 units Total: 190,000 units Sales to existing buildings 2010 2020 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 95% Total: 2,046,900 units Total: 1,482,500 units 99% 9 Excellence in Market Intelligence 9

  10. Penetration of Heat Generators Penetration of heat generating products in the existing housing stock 2010 2020 (27.17 million dwellings) (28.45 million dwellings) heat solar heat pumps solar others pumps thermal 0.1% thermal others 12% 2.1% 2.1% oil boilers 0.4% 10.5% oil 5.9% boilers 5.6% gas boilers gas boilers 79.7% 81.6% 10 Excellence in Market Intelligence 10

  11. Winning system types New residential family houses Gas cond. boiler + Solar thermal Gas or electric HP + HRV Electric HP+ Solar thermal system + HRV systems + HRV CB ST CYL HP CYL HP ST CYL HRV HRV HRV Existing family houses Gas cond. boiler+ Solar Gas cond. boiler + Cond. boiler + A/W electric HP thermal system quick recovery cylinder (Hybrid heat pump) CB ST CB CYL CB HP CYL CYL 11 Excellence in Market Intelligence 11

  12. Heat Pumps / Hybrid HP Development of the UK Heat pump and Hybrid heat pump markets, 2005 - 2017 units 50,000 100% growth towards 2011 45,000 40,000 52% growth 35,000 towards 2011 30,000 25,000 RHI Spring 2013 20,000 RHI Spring 2014 15,000 Hybrid HP 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 12 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12

  13. Solar thermals Development of the UK solar thermal market, 2005 - 2017 ‘000 m2 The market 120.0 literally halved between 2011 100.0 and 2013 80.0 60.0 Total ST collectors 40.0 20.0 0.0 13 Excellence in Market Intelligence 13

  14. Winning system types New multi-dwellings District heating + Heat CB + Electric HP / Solar Communal boiler + CHP + Interface Units thermal system Heat Interface Units ST or HP CYL DH CB HIU B CHP HIU Existing multi-dwellings Communal boiler + CHP + Gas cond. boiler CB + Solar thermal system Heat Interface Units ST B CHP CB CB HIU 14 Excellence in Market Intelligence 14

  15. HIU – market development Development of the UK HIU market, 2012 - 2017 ‘000 units 86% growth 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Heat Interface Units (Flat Stations) 25.0 DH connections 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 15 Excellence in Market Intelligence 15

  16. HIU – drivers & constraints • Positive outlook for housing construction & Building Regulations Housing completions in the UK, ‘000 200 150 42.0 41.0 39.6 47.4 47.4 37.1 39.8 100 57.7 50 98.4 100.0 102.0 90.9 87.6 87.1 86.2 71.6 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1+2 family dwellings flats • Fighting fuel poverty will drive refurbishment in social housing take space • The UK preference for hot water storage cylinders – risk of Legionella Low level of sizing and installation skills 16 Excellence in Market Intelligence 16

  17. How about Fuel cells? European sales of Fuel Cells under 10kWe units 25,000 20,000 15,000 PEM FC SO FC 10,000 5,000 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: BSRIA 17 Excellence in Market Intelligence

  18. Key points for HVAC 2020 future Market place will Energy prices be gas dominated will go up until 2020 Help towards Efficiency of reducing initial systems & reduction investment cost of running cost will for renewables increasingly matter will be crucial 18 Excellence in Market Intelligence 18

  19. Thank you Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager Traditional and Renewable Heating BSRIA WMI krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk 19 Excellence in Market Intelligence 19

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