Ubiquitous Networking and JGN Ubiquitous Networking and JGN for Future e- -Japan Japan for Future e Tadao SAITO Tadao SAITO Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo Professor, Chuo University University Professor, Chuo Chairman, Ubiquitous Networking Forum Chairman, Ubiquitous Networking Forum th 2004 Jan. 29 th 2004 Jan. 29 SAINT 2004 SAINT 2004 T.SAITO2004.1.29
Contents Contents Future of IT Industry Future of IT Industry 1. 1. E- -Japan Strategy Japan Strategy E 2. 2. JGN- -First Phase First Phase JGN 3. 3. Further Request for High Speed Test Bed Further Request for High Speed Test Bed 4. 4. Expanding IT World by Ubiquity of Network Expanding IT World by Ubiquity of Network 5. 5. Society Created by Information Technology Society Created by Information Technology 6. 6. T.SAITO2004.1.29
Cost Performance Improvement after 1960 Cost Performance Improvement after 1960 1960 1990 2000 2010 1960 1990 2000 2010 6 8 10 LSI 10 6 10 8 10 10 LSI 10 10 10 3 5 7 Computer 10 3 10 5 10 7 Computer 10 10 10 Data Communication 10 1 1 10 3 3 10 5 5 Data Communication 10 10 10 3 3 4 Broadcasting 10 3 10 3 10 4 Broadcasting 10 10 10 T.SAITO2004.1.29
Near Future of Electronics Near Future of Electronics Design Rule Clock Transistor Density Design Rule Clock Transistor Density 2 nm GHz M/cm M/cm 2 nm GHz 150 1.7 90 90 150 1.7 2001 2001 90 4 180 180 90 4 2004 2004 55 6.7 360 60 55 6.7 3 2007 2007 45 11.5 700 0 45 11.5 70 2013 2013 22 29 2800 0 22 29 280 2016 2016 ITRS roadmap 2001 ITRS roadmap 2001 T.SAITO2004.1.29
Overcoming Limitation Social New Technology Acceptance Change in satisfaction Scientific life style Knowledge work style New Value T.SAITO2004.1.29
Condition for Growth Condition for Growth Market Expansion Market Expansion Value Addition to Attract People Value Addition to Attract People Application Application Services Services Contents Contents Broader Use of Electronics Broader Use of Electronics Number should exceed human population. Number should exceed human population. T.SAITO2004.1.29
e-Japan Strategy 2001 Main objective: “To make Japan the world's most advanced IT nation by 2005” ◆ 5-year urgent concentrated implementation by 2005 ◆ Four priority policy areas － Infrastructure: Principle of private-sector initiatives, Creation of the world Creation of the world’ ’s s most advanced environment for the Internet most advanced environment for the Internet － e-commerce: Ex-post-facto check rule, Building confidence in participants, International harmonization － e-governments: Reform of administrative work, Social infrastructures for use of IT － Human resources: Improvement in IT literacy, Recruiting of IT instructors, Fostering of IT engineers/experts Constant access environment by 2005 Constant access environment by 2005 High-speed: 30 million households High-speed: 30 million households Ultra-high-speed: 10 million households Ultra-high-speed: 10 million households Targets T.SAITO2004.1.29 １
Achieved Targets for “e-Japan Strategy” (Establishment of Infrastructure) Targets Actual Results Constant access Constant access environment by 2003 environment by 2005 Versus High-speed (DSL): 35 million households High-speed (cable TV): 23 million households High-speed: 30 million households Ultra-high-speed (FTTH): 17.7 million households Ultra-high-speed: 10 million households T.SAITO2004.1.29 ２
Improved Broadband Environment with Increased Use and More Diversity ◇ Broadband fees are the lowest in the world. ◇ The number of subscribers has broken through the 10 million subscriber mark, and is fast approaching Korea’s second-place world ranking. (as of the end of 2002: US-18.7M, Korea 9.86M, Japan 7.81M) ◇ Apace with DSL, we are also seeing a rapid increase in the use of fiber optics. ） International comparison of broadband fees (charge per 100Kbps) （ Dollars ） 4 3.53 Broadband charges are the world’s 3 lowest 2.71 2.21 2 1.27 1.15 1 0.25 0.09 0 Japan Korea ea Belgui uium Hong K Kong ng Singapore New ew Z Zealand U.S. (Note) Comparison calculating fees per 100kbps, based on speed provided and fees charged for DSL or Cable Internet in each country and region. (Source: Created from ITU Survey by documentation) T.SAITO2004.1.29 MPHPT ３
Cable and DSL users 9,000, 9, 00,000 8,257,118 8,000, 8, 00,000 7,023,039 7, 7,000, 00,000 6,000, 6, 00,000 5,645,728 Subscribers 5,000, 5, 00,000 4,223,216 4, 4,000, 00,000 3,300,926 3,000, 3, 00,000 2,378,795 1,954,000 2, 2,000, 00,000 1,758,000 1,992,000 1,790,000 1,151,000 1,524,348 1,456,000 967,000 1,303,000 1,000, 1, 00,000 784,000 650,796 625,000 216,000 463,000 66,000 329,000 291,333 32,000 92,000 154,000 70,655 9,723 0 19 19 1 2,537 999.3 6 9 12 12 000.3 6 9 12 12 001.3 6 9 12 12 002.3 6 9 12 12 003.3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 DSL Cable T.SAITO2004.1.29
Optical Fiber Penetration in Japan (%) 100 100 94 94 93 93 92 92 90 90 89 89 80 80 74 74 70 70 averag ave rage o of m major cit cities es 61 61 60 60 56 56 business a siness area i in 50 50 47 47 ma major c cities 44 44 43 43 40 40 nati tional al ave averag rage 36 36 34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 27 27 21 21 20 20 19 19 16 16 16 16 13 13 10 10 10 10 0 199 1995 1996 1997 199 1998 1999 199 2000 2001 200 T.SAITO2004.1.29
Transition to New IT Strategy The first phase was successful but……. 100% Actual use is still low 80% (Able to connect but do not) 60% 40% 20% 0% DSL CATV FTTH Actual use – Actual use – Actual use – 10.3% 4.3% 27.4% 9.590M ※ 2.376M 756,000 Advancement of IT strategy to the second phase is urgently required . (expansion in actual use) (Source) MPHPT (as of end of October 2003) (Note) Percentages refer to the share of actual users compared with the number of potential users. T.SAITO2004.1.29 ４
Transition of Communication Network Transition of Communication Network Telephone → Internet Narrowband → Broadband expected to be Gbps in 15 years Technology Value for Public Application Penetration Social Value T.SAITO2004.1.29
Gigabit-Class Links between ATM switches Links between ATM Switches and ATM Connecting Nodes Access Points ： 66 locations （ ： IPv6 Connecting Nodes ） ATM Switches （ 10 locations ） ATM Connecting Nodes （ 56 locations ） Sapporo ATM Relay Switching Function （ Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka ） TAO Research Centers （ 10 locations ） Shared Use Research Facilities （ 5 locations ） Naha Sendai Kanazawa Tsukuba Nagano Okayama Kyoto Makuhari Tokyo Osaka Nagoya Kitakyushu Takamatsu Keihanna Fukuoka Kochi T.SAITO2004.1.29
Comfort Secure Life Lifestyle/Workstyle Value Addition for Human Application/Content Life Stable Management Network Broadband Infrastructure T.SAITO2004.1.29
Two Wheels Technology Life Style T.SAITO2004.1.29
Gigabit Network Project Gigabit Network Project ! April 1999 ~ March 2004 April 1999 ~ March 2004 ! ! Nationwide Network Nationwide Network ! ! Free Use for Research Free Use for Research ! ! Network Operation Network Operation ! ! Application Application ! 193 subjects ! 193 subjects ! 103 events ! ! 103 events 543 organizations ! 543 organizations ! T.SAITO2004.1.29
Achievements by JGN Achievements by JGN Technology Development mainly in Network, Technology Development mainly in Network, Application/Contents Application/Contents Experimental New Workstyle/Lifestyle Experimental New Workstyle/Lifestyle Education/Museum Education/Museum Medical Application Medical Application Remote Collaboration Remote Collaboration Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery High Definition Picture Application High Definition Picture Application Contents Creation Collaboration Contents Creation Collaboration T.SAITO2004.1.29
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