LOW-INCOME STATS & MAPS: SURREY BC ¡ ¡ TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change this A Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Monday February 16, 2015 8am-4pm @MakeTHIS_Happen Kwantlen University Conference Centre #THIS2015 1266672nd Ave, Surrey, BC A presentation by Jacopo Miro
TODAY’S SESSION: ¡ ¡ 1. 2011 NHS DATA 2. FACTS & MAPS
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: A PRIMER ¡ ¡ THE 2011 NHS: WHAT IS IT? NHS = National Household Survey Random survey Voluntary (not mandatory) WHAT DOES IT DO? The NHS replaces the long-form census Gathers data on the social, demographic and economic profile of Canadians, and the dwellings in which they live
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ THE 2011 NHS: KEY POINTS Prone to higher “non-response bias” Small geographic area & small population group = higher risk of error High risk NHS data meets Stats Canada quality standards 112 Ave S Medium risk K Y T R A Low risk I N BOLIVAR CREEK GATEWAY STN 108 Ave 132 St CHUCK WHALLEY King George Blvd BAILEY ATHLETIC REC CENTRE PARK 104 Ave
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ BUT… Changes to survey method affect how NHS data should used MEANING… Use great caution “It is impossible to determine with certainty whether, and to what extent, di ff erences in a variable are attributable to an actual change or to non- response bias (Stats Can, 2013).” “2011 NHS data on low-income is NOT comparable to census data of previous years (Stats Can, 2013).” ≠
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ WHAT ONE CAN DO Compare 2011 low-income data across population groups and across geographic areas
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ HOW TO TELL THE QUALITY OF NHS DATA? GNR = Global Non-response Rate GNR = Statistical weighted measure used to ascertain the level of non-response to the NHS Percentage of households who did not respond to the survey
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ THE GNR: KEY POINTS The higher the GNR the weaker the data (i.e. the higher the likelihood of bias) Know your GNR Threshold for publication = GNR is less than 50%
NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D ¡ ¡ Measuring Poverty: LIM LIM = Low-Income Measure Best available tool for low-income studies LIM: KEY CHARACTERISTICS “A household has low income if its income is less than half of the median income of all households (Stats Canada 2013).” LIM is adjusted for household size but not for geographic area LIM-AT (after tax) and LIM-BT (before tax) Low-Income Measure Thresholds for Households of Canada, 2010 * Household Size After-tax Income ($) Before-tax Income ($) 1 person 19,460 22,160 2 persons 27,521 31,339 3 persons 33,706 38,382 4 persons 38,920 44,320 5 persons 43,514 49,551 6 persons 47,667 54,281 7 persons 51,486 58,630 * ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ���������������������������� Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey Dictionary, 2011 Catalogue no. 99-000-X2011001
FACTS & MAPS: SOME POINTERS ¡ ¡ WHERE ARE WE AT? Initial stages of analysis Preliminary findings (a ‘sneak preview’) Publish the complete report on our website in the next four to six weeks
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Non-Response rates (i.e. the GNR) GNR are considerable and varied Many neighbourhoods in the 30% range Municipal level Neighbourhood/CT level METRO VANCOUVER 24% Cambie & Broadway 14% SURREY 26% 49% Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) Surrey RICHMOND (Min) 21% Surrey Memorial Hospital 18% 28% ANMORE & WEST VAN (Max) Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) 49%
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ What to make of this? High GNR are correlated with high incidence of low-income Low-income data is likely equivalent to a ‘minimum/conservative count’ The lower the GNR the stronger the data It is better to compare geographic areas with similar GNR
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ General findings Roughly 400,000 (17%) people classify as low-income in Metro Vancouver Surrey’s low-income population = 72,000 people The incidence of low-income for Surrey is on par with the metropolitan average (16%) Highs are around 20% Lows are around 10%
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ General findings “The updated Fact Sheets are a good starting point for thinking about poverty issues in Surrey. They contextualize Surrey’s place in the region, and help us to compare various socio-demographic groups in matters of housing, transportation, income and support. The updated Fact Sheets don’t reveal anything radically different than previous years TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT this How do people get to work? COMMUTING PATTERN FOR ABORIGINAL PEOPLES, RECENT IMMIGRANTS, AND TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES ��������������������������������� groups the majority use a car to go IS HOW WE to work 82% 83% END POVERTY 72% 69% Commute IN SURREY by car 26% Commute 22% 14% 12% by public transit ABORIGINAL RECENT PEOPLE WITH TOTAL TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT IMMIGRANTS DISABILITIES POPULATION PEOPLES Discounted transit passes O D S ’ T The Ministry of Social Development and Social Innovation provides discount- E L this ed transit passes for low-income seniors and people with disabilities. This pro- ��������������������������� gram can make a real di f erence in helping seniors and people with disabilities who are in low income and struggling to make ends meet. THE FACTS ON POVERTY IN SURREY transportation SURREY’S FREQUENT FREQUENT TRANSIT NETWORK: SURREY TRANSIT NETWORK CITY CENTRE This fact sheet is In order to make part of a series of
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Neighbourhood Level Analysis Fine-grained data means more detailed findings Reveals patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed Adds analytical depth Informs placed-based policies
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Trends Overtime How and to what extent are things getting better or worse? Where? Contextualize change Understand structural and systemic forces at play
LIM is but one indicator of low-income Various things affect these maps: Students House-rich cash-poor seniors Foreign assets Investment income Part-time vs full-time work HIGH VERY HIGH LOW MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM HIGH
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Age Profile The distribution of low-income people varies not only across space, but also across age demographics �� �� �� City of Vancouver Surrey Metro Vancouver 28% Less than 18 yrs 22% Less than 18 yrs 16% Less than 18 yrs 63% 18 to 24 yrs 67% 18 to 24 yrs 71% 18 to 24 yrs 9% 65 yrs and plus 13% 65 yrs and plus 11% 65 yrs and plus
ALL AGES: Neighoburhood Level Analysis Percentage of people of all ages in low income* CITY CENTRE Affluent and poorer areas Low-income people are distributed unevenly in Surrey WHALLEY GUILDFORD 96 Ave Further localized and clustered in specific areas Hwy 1 King George Bldv FLEETWOOD Hwy 1A NEWTON CLOVERDALE Hwy 10 Hwy 15 SOUTH SURREY Hwy 99 Source: 2011 National Household Survey, 2011 Less than 10% 10 - 14% 15 - 19% 20 - 24% 25% AND MORE *According to Statistics Canada’s Low-Income Measure After-Tax (LIM-AT) Produced by the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Jan 2015
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Child Poverty in the Spotlight 20,000 children and youth live in poverty in Surrey… …more than in any other municipality in the region, including the City of Vancouver Also true for children 5 years and younger CHILDREN AND YOUTH MAKE WHAT PERCENT 30% CHILDREN 5 YEARS AND OF THE LOW-INCOME YOUNGER LIVING IN POVERTY POPULATION? 20% SURREY 2,600 15% VANCOUVER CY 6,200 2,300 BURNABY 5,500 RICHMOND SURREY METRO VAN VAN CY
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Child Poverty in the Spotlight Cont’d The 4 neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children (ages 5 and younger) are all in Surrey 11 YOUTH & CHILD POVERTY: 800 children and youth live in THE 20 POOREST NEIGHBOURHOODS* WHERE ARE THEY? poverty around Holly Park, more than in any other neighbourhood 4 in Metro Vancouver 2 2 1 SURREY RICHMOND COQUITLAM VAN CY PORT COQUITLAM *Neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children and youth
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW ¡ ¡ Children 5 yrs and younger in low-income Downtown Eastside, Strathcona and East Chinatown Holly Park & Guildford Mall Area Census tract area = 4km 2 Census tract area = 4km 2 Number of low-income children = 290 Number of low-income children = 600
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