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Trade Policy in Developing Countries "Economically, what is the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Trade Policy in Developing Countries "Economically, what is the dierence between restricting imports of iron to benet iron producers and restricting sanitary improvements to benet undertakers?" Henry George (1886) Fall 2009


  1. Trade Policy in Developing Countries "Economically, what is the di¤erence between restricting imports of iron to bene…t iron producers and restricting sanitary improvements to bene…t undertakers?" Henry George (1886) Fall 2009 Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 1 / 25

  2. Import Substitution Basic idea , ! erect barriers to foreign imports , ! satisfy demand with domestic (less e¢ciently–produced) substitutes , ! allow domestic producers to become more e¢cient , ! eventually remove the trade barriers Main policy tools: , ! Tari¤s , ! Quotas (often combined with tari¤ beyond quota) , ! Non–tari¤ barriers Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 2 / 25

  3. The Impact of Import Barriers (Small Open Economy) Implicit assumptions: , ! competitive markets , ! all the parties get equal weight in the welfare analysis ! world price, P � , is independent of domestic policy , Static Welfare Consequences ! Domestic consumers’ loss = P � BDP t , ! Domestic producers’ loss = P � ACP t , , ! Government revenue gain = CDEF , ! Net deadweight loss = ACE + BDF Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 3 / 25

  4. Price Domestic Consumer Supply Surplus P Producer Domestic Surplus Demand Quantity Figure: Measuring Economic Welfare Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 4 / 25

  5. Price Domestic Supply Autarky Price P* B A Domestic Demand Quantity Imports Figure: Import Sector with no Policy Intervention Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 5 / 25

  6. Price Domestic Supply C D P t P* B A Domestic Demand Quantity Imports Figure: Impact of Tari¤ Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 6 / 25

  7. Price Domestic Supply C D P t P* B A Domestic Demand Quantity Imports Figure: Loss in Consumer Surplus Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 7 / 25

  8. Price Domestic Supply C D P t P* B A Domestic Demand Quantity Imports Figure: Gain in Producer Surplus Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 8 / 25

  9. Price Domestic Supply C D P t P* B A Domestic Demand Quantity Imports Figure: Deadweight Loss due to Tari¤ Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 9 / 25

  10. Potential Dynamic Bene…ts From protecting domestic “infant” industry “Learning–by–doing” e¤ects , ! cost reductions that can only be achieved through on–going production Spillovers to other industries , ! e.g. through e¤ects on public education system Increasing returns to scale , ! DC producers often have a …rst–mover advantage , ! LDC producers must achieve an e¢cient scale to compete Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 10 / 25

  11. Price Domestic Supply p t p* Domestic Demand B A Quantity Figure: Short Term Increase in Domestic Production due to Tari¤ Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 11 / 25

  12. Price Internationally Competitiv e p t p* Domestic Demand Quantity Figure: Long Term – after cost reductions due to learning Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 12 / 25

  13. Av erage Cost, Price b p* Average Cost a Curve Quantity Q d Q f Figure: Increasing Returns and Protection Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 13 / 25

  14. Problems with the Import Substitution Strategy Protection may induce continued ine¢ciency , ! becoming competitive requires costly e¤ort and investment , ! incentives to incur costs depend on ultimate removal of trade barriers , ! BUT once protected, removal of barriers becomes di¢cult — why ? , ! domestic producers may have little incentive to invest ) ultimately depends on credibility of the government’s strategy Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 14 / 25

  15. Detrimental impact on primary exports due to exchange rate distortions , ! widespread IS reduces demand for foreign currency , ! domestic currency becomes overvalued , ! foreign prices of domestic exports rise and demand for them contracts , ! tends to hurt primary goods producing sectors (e.g. agriculture), Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 15 / 25

  16. Example: Import Substitution in Brazil Brazil has a large internal market 1949–1964: IS responsible for 25% of growth in demand for domestic manufacturing , ! imports fell from 14% to 6% of total supply 1965–74: shift towards export promotion , ! rapid export growth 1975–1982: return to IS, but for capital goods , ! created powerful domestic groups with vested interests in continuation of inward–looking policies Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 16 / 25

  17. The Move away from Import Substitution Many LDCs ran into severe debt crises in the 1980s crises were not caused by IS policies, but it made it di¢cult to react , ! overvalued currencies — di¢cult to obtain foreign currency via exports , ! mis–allocation of resources due to distorted internal prices Strongly in‡uenced structural adjustment programs imposed by creditors (e.g. IMF) , ! required the removal of trade barriers as a condition for new lending. Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 17 / 25

  18. Export Promotion Basic idea , ! provide preferential treatment to exporters of manufactured goods , ! once they are established, remove this aid Main policy tools used in export promotion are: , ! export subsidies , ! reduced import duties on material inputs , ! preferential credit access and terms of that credit. Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 18 / 25

  19. The Impact of Export Subsidies E¤ective world price for producers increased to P s = ( 1 + s ) P � Static Welfare Consequences ! Domestic producers’ gain = P � BDP s . , ! Domestic consumers’ loss = P � ACP s , , ! Cost of government subsidy = CDFE , ! Net deadweight loss = ACE + BDF . Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 19 / 25

  20. Price Domestic Supply P* A B Autarky Price Domestic Demand Quantity Exports Figure: Export Sector with no Policy Intervention Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 20 / 25

  21. Domestic Price Supply C D P s P* B F E A Domestic Demand Quantity Exports Figure: Impact of Export Subsidy Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 21 / 25

  22. Domestic Price Supply C D P s P* B F E A Domestic Demand Quantity Exports Figure: Loss in Consumer Surplus Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 22 / 25

  23. Domestic Price Supply C D P s P* B F E A Domestic Demand Quantity Exports Figure: Gain in Producer Surplus Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 23 / 25

  24. Domestic Price Supply C D P s P* B E F A Domestic Demand Quantity Figure: Deadweight Loss due to Subsidy Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 24 / 25

  25. Dynamic Bene…ts , ! Allows producers to overcome credit market failures , ! Learning–by–doing / positive externalities , ! Allows producers to overcome …rst mover advantage Exchange Rate E¤ects , ! increase in demand for domestic currency (from foreign consumers) , ! domestic currency becomes overvalued , ! real export prices rise , ! hurts other exporters (primary and manufacturing) Huw Lloyd-Ellis () Econ239 Fall 2009 25 / 25

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