Presentation Script for the NSW Planning Assessment Commission public hearing concerning R040/ 17 Bylong Coal Project at Club M udgee , 99 Mortimer Street Mudgee NSW 2850 on Thursday, 11 M ay 2017 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - To be read in conjunction with the companion Presentation Slides SLIDE 1 – cover page I thank the Planning Assessment Commission members for the opportunity to speak here today. My name is Geoff Miell . I have no political affiliations. I am a resident and rate payer in the Lithgow Local Government Area (LGA). SLIDE 2 – I think key issues are being deliberately ignored I think key issues are being deliberately ignored, because it’s very difficult to deal with, and due to vested interests. We are currently living in a “Fool’s Paradise”. Climate change and energy from now on will be the key drivers of our society and economy. These drivers are inter-connected. This presentation highlights evidence of the growing risks to our energy security and prosperity, and why the Bylong Coal Project is likely to be a “stranded asset”. I oppose the Bylong Coal Project. You should too. SLIDE 3 – We live on a finite planet We live on a finite planet. Limits to growth due to resource depletion are beginning to take effect. Good planets are difficult to come by. We must avoid wrecking this one. SLIDE 4 – Our civilisation is currently heavily dependent on f/fuels Coal, oil and natural gas currently provide more than 85% of global energy needs and around 94% of Australia’s energy needs. Renewables are still at low contribution levels. SLIDE 5 – We behave as if our principal energy resources will go on Our civilisation seems to behave as if our current principal energy resources will go on forever. The energy resources: oil, natural gas, coal, uranium and thorium are finite, non- renewable, one-time use and depleting. These current principal energy resources will inevitably become scarce and unaffordable. The question is when? If we cannot find alternatives soon, then unaffordable energy will mean life becomes unaffordable. SLIDE 6 – Metrics: Size, Rate of Supply, and Net Energy The metric most commonly cited to suggest a new age of fossil fuels is the estimate of in situ resources and the purported fraction that can be recovered. Two other metrics are critically important in determining the viability of an energy resource: the rate of energy supply; and the net energy yield, or energy returned on energy invested (ERoEI). The last 2 metrics are often overlooked or ignored by politicians and the media. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11 May 2017 Geoffrey Miell Page 1 of 4
Presentation Script for the NSW Planning Assessment Commission public hearing concerning R040/ 17 Bylong Coal Project at Club M udgee , 99 Mortimer Street Mudgee NSW 2850 on Thursday, 11 M ay 2017 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SLIDE 7 – Bylong will be dependent upon petroleum to be viable The Bylong Coal Project will be dependent upon ongoing stable, abundant, affordable petroleum-based fuel supplies to remain viable. Scarce, unaffordable, disrupted petroleum-based fuel supplies are likely to result in the Bylong Coal Project becoming non-viable and a “stranded asset”. SLIDE 8 – Global oil reserves-to-production BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016 indicates the world has large reserves of oil remaining, but we are consuming them at a near unprecedented rate with perhaps 5 decades supply remaining. But it assumes that the rate of supply can continue to be maintained – that may be a false assumption. And the net energy yield is likely to continue to decline. SLIDE 9 – Australia is more vulnerable than ever to fuel disruptions Australia is more vulnerable than ever to fuel import disruptions. With the closure of 3 Australian oil refineries, fuel imports have skyrocketed, and these additional imports come from and pass through an area where there are high tensions. SLIDE 10 – Low Australian petroleum fuel inventories The continuing talk of a global oil glut lulls Australians to believe that everything is fine while actually our country’s petroleum stock holdings are minimal. In particular, Australian diesel fuel supplies have been as low as 12 days. At the 2015 NSW Parliamentary inquiry into Gas and Liquid Fuels, then NSW Energy Minister Anthony Roberts testified “… if those boats stop it is a month to Mad Max . ” SLIDE 11 – US oil production insufficient to provide independence Don’t believe the hype. US shale oil production peaked in March 2015, and if there are no new major US oil discoveries, then US crude oil production is likely to continue to decline. SLIDE 12 – Typical production decline curves for US tight oil wells These are typical production decline curves for US tight oil wells. That’s the way it is! You need to drill, and drill, and drill, just to maintain production, it’s expensive, and eventually all the productive areas are saturated with wells. SLIDE 13 – Global ‘peak oil’ is inevitable – a question of when More post-peak countries must be compensated by ever fewer pre-peak production countries. ‘Peak oil’ is the beginning of the end of oil – not its end. SLIDE 14 – Will there be a post-peak oil world before 2030? Labor Government suppressed BITRE Report 117 , prepared in 2009, projected “… a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017 …” Will it ensue as stated? The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016 shows for the first time in Figure 3.16 that an oil supply-demand gap may emerge before 2020. Can new oil be found, developed and produced in time to fill the projected gap? Is this possible? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11 May 2017 Geoffrey Miell Page 2 of 4
Presentation Script for the NSW Planning Assessment Commission public hearing concerning R040/ 17 Bylong Coal Project at Club M udgee , 99 Mortimer Street Mudgee NSW 2850 on Thursday, 11 M ay 2017 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SLIDE 15 – More ‘peak oil’ prognostications: Are they wrong? What’s the evidence? Or are we ill-prepared for the inevitable? SLIDE 16 – What does a post-peak oil world mean for us? What’s a post-peak oil world mean for us? It means less liquid fuels; and higher liquid fuel prices if we don’t end our addiction to oil. Why continue building infrastructure reliant on ongoing, abundant, affordable supplies of petroleum fuel when increasing evidence indicates crude oil is likely to decline soon? Why start construction of the Bylong Coal Project? It’s likely to be a “stranded asset” in a post-peak oil world. SLIDE 17 – 2015 top 5 coal country rankings The global coal industry is heavily concentrated among only a few key countries. SLIDE 18 – Current top 5 coal producer outlooks China is on a rapid diversification of its entire electricity-generating capacity away from coal towards hydro, renewables and nuclear. The US coal industry is in a sustained decline, despite what Trump says. 2 years ago, Indian energy minister Goyal articulated a clear plan to cease thermal coal imports by around 2020. Australia has plenty of coal but it seems the top 2 coal importers/consumers, China and India, won’t need it soon! Why open a new mine like Bylong? There’ll be plenty of existing coal mines idle soon! SLIDE 19 – EWG: World hard coal production 1960 – 2100 by region Global coal production peaked in 2014, a few years earlier than projected here, and it appears we are now in a post-peak coal world. SLIDE 20 – Scenario of world supply of fossil fuels and uranium World fossil fuel supply is close to peaking, with declining global oil production consequently initiating a rising energy deficiency that coal and/or gas will be unable to compensate for. SLIDE 21 – International & national energy security challenges These are our energy security and climate change challenges. Why start new mines like the Bylong Coal Project? We need a planned, orderly, fair contraction of coal. We as a species must quickly begin an orderly, substantial transition away from fossil fuel use BEFORE fossil fuels become scarce and increasingly unaffordable. Otherwise, our energy security, prosperity and social stability are at immense risk. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11 May 2017 Geoffrey Miell Page 3 of 4
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